PEIX ==> thoughts?

[Websman]

As long as the total production of ethanol is less than 10% of all clean fuel mandated gasoline consumed, then the price of ethanol will track the price of gasoline.

The cost to produce the ethanol is basically fixed, so the profits for ethanol will move up with the price of gasoline...

ummm..has anyone seen the price of gasoline lately?

I guess I should get in the oil business with you and enjoy the profits. jejeje

[TFred]

Greetings,

Not to be a rain on the parade,but Ethanol is not the alternative to oil until around $90bbl.I cannot provide a link at this time,but a recent study by a well respected University did a realistic cost of using ethanol,and whats left out of the equation they found out is the costs of growing the source material.

With oil approaching 75,its gettng more feasible,but the paradox is that any ethanol used to replace oil will cause oil to drop,and then make ethanol too expensive as an alternative.

Not sure how it will play out,but its been a good one to own so far.

cordially Tom

[mrmarket]

Greetings,

Not to be a rain on the parade,but Ethanol is not the alternative to oil until around $90bbl.I cannot provide a link at this time,but a recent study by a well respected University did a realistic cost of using ethanol,and whats left out of the equation they found out is the costs of growing the source material.

With oil approaching 75,its gettng more feasible,but the paradox is that any ethanol used to replace oil will cause oil to drop,and then make ethanol too expensive as an alternative.

Not sure how it will play out,but its been a good one to own so far.

cordially Tom

Everything you say is true. This country should not even be using ethanol. It's NOT a renewable energy source. But those lobbyists were darn persistent and now we HAVE to use it.

[dmk112]

Tom, does it really matter? The stock is rising, that is all that matters.

[mrmarket]

Toyota plans to sell ethanol cars in US by 2008: FT Tue Apr 18, 11:49 PM ET



Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T) plans to sell ethanol-powered vehicles in the United States by 2008, following the lead of domestics General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F - news), the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed company executive.

A Toyota spokeswoman in Tokyo acknowledged that Japan's top auto maker was developing flexible-fuel vehicles, mainly for the ethanol-smitten Brazilian market for starters, but declined to disclose specific product plans.

"We're proceeding with development of ethanol-based cars for Brazil, but for other markets we are gauging what needs there are first," she said.

Toyota, a market leader in gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, has resisted the technology amid worries about the impact of highly corrosive ethanol on rubber seals in the engine, the Financial Times said.

U.S. auto makers have produced about 6 million flexible-fuel vehicles, with many running on E85, or a fuel blend consisting of 85 percent ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, and 15 percent gasoline.

Toyota's new vehicle would be fitted with anti-corrosive parts to meet U.S. regulations, but the auto maker suggested that a less ambitious strategy of mixing only 10-15 percent ethanol into gasoline might produce greater savings, the paper said.

Toyota is still keen to spread the use of hybrid vehicles, which save fuel by twinning a conventional engine with an electric motor, the spokeswoman said.

President Bush has called for more ethanol use to reduce foreign oil imports, but fewer than 1,000 of the nation's 170,000 filling stations currently sell E85.

Bush has set a six-year goal for making ethanol practical and competitive as an alternative fuel, and vowed to fund additional research into ways to make it not just from the commonly used corn but also from wood chips or grasses.

[TFred]

Tom, does it really matter? The stock is rising, that is all that matters.

Greetings,

It doesn't matter at all for anyone making a buck on it,I should have looked at it when you mentioned it on NBB's thread.I don't know how it will play out,its got political thrust behind it,which could turn it into a big time winner.

I wanted to point out the error in some reporting of ethanols benefits.Bill O'Reilly is constantly bringing it up.I'll see if I can find the link if anyones interested,it was a good read, that points out the obvious flaws in previous studies.

cordially Tom

[daskro]

Greetings,

It doesn't matter at all for anyone making a buck on it,I should have looked at it when you mentioned it on NBB's thread.I don't know how it will play out,its got political thrust behind it,which could turn it into a big time winner.

I wanted to point out the error in some reporting of ethanols benefits.Bill O'Reilly is constantly bringing it up.I'll see if I can find the link if anyones interested,it was a good read, that points out the obvious flaws in previous studies.

cordially Tom

Are those Paul Wall grills?

Oh yeah I got in this at 30.60. I like it.

[mrmarket]

Atlantic City here we come!

Looks like the Titans are going to have a grand old time squandering this corn capital in the high roller pits at the Hilton next Saturday night...

[New-born baby]

Mr. HUGE

Looks like the Titans are going to have a grand old time squandering this corn capital in the high roller pits at the Hilton next Saturday night...

Nice call, MM. I am riding with you in huge quantities Let me tell you how I got in. I thought I'd be smart and sell the $30 PUT at expiration for $1, thus getting in at $29. They gave me the $1, but the stock never got put onto me, so I bought it on the next Monday at-------$31.40.

So much for being smart. It cost me an extra $.40 per share!

[daskro]

Oh yeah, about a week after my last post, I loaded up again at 32 and some change. All this scaber rattling coupled with the political pressure of high oil prices will continue the rise of this stock. Absent of islamic-fascism declaring peace on the west and the EPA deregulating new refineries even more, I can't see this stock going down too much.

[mrmarket]

News Analysis
By Christopher Palmeri and Aaron Pressman


Let the Ethanol Flow
New plants that produce the fuel are part of a boom, but signs also point to a possible glut in the near future


Andersons (ANDE ) used to manage grain silos, lease rail cars, and run a few home stores from its rural Ohio headquarters. Now it's an ethanol player. In the past year it has invested $36 million for minority stakes in three plants that will produce the fuel, which can be made from a variety of plant materials including corn, Andersons' speciality. Its share price has shot up from 30 to 122 during that time, adding more than $600 million to the company's market value.

Welcome to the ethanol boom, the closest America's farmers may get to an investment bubble. Since the pro-ethanol State of the Union address in January, shares of Fresno-based Pacific Ethanol (PEIX ) have doubled, to 37. Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE ) has risen 40%, to 46, since it began trading in March.

But ethanol is far from the sure moneymaker its boosters say it is. In fact, some of the very forces behind the boom might undermine ethanol's prospects as an investment over the next few years.

SURPLUS AHEAD? The fuel, renewable and more environmentally friendly than gasoline, is already being used as a gas additive, replacing another additive that was found to pollute groundwater. The result: a squeeze on supplies that has doubled ethanol's wholesale price, to $2.75 a gallon, about what gasoline costs at wholesale. With corn prices low and gas prices high, ethanol's profit margin per gallon is at a record of more than $1. "You don't need Willie Nelson organizing concerts for these farmers," jokes Tom Kloza, an analyst for the Oil Price Information Service.

Last year's energy bill requires gas marketers to sell at least 4 billion gallons of ethanol-blended fuel this year, rising to 7.5 billion gallons by 2012. That sparked a surge of investment. In April, Goldman Sachs (GS ) took a $26.8 million stake in Canadian outfit Iogen. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM ), meanwhile, tapped Patricia Woertz, a career oil woman, as its new CEO. Two U.S. companies recently filed for initial public offerings to finance more plants, while Spanish energy company Abengoa and Connecticut private-equity firm J.H. Whitney raised almost $300 million to do so.

But all the new money might create an ethanol glut. On Apr. 11, California projected that U.S. capacity required by 2009 would be online in under a year. Since that projection, at least four more companies have announced plans to build plants. That's because a typical 50-million-gallon-a-year plant costs just $75 million or so to build, with banks willing to lend up to 70% of the cost, says Tom Murray, co-head of loan and debt capital markets at German bank WestLB. A new gasoline refinery costs $1 billion or more.

GROWING PAINS. Investors in ethanol plants will find themselves at the mercy of two commodity cycles: corn and gas. According to simulations run by the University of Missouri's Food & Agriculture Policy Research Institute, corn prices over the next six years are likely to rise and ethanol prices to fall, resulting in a 25% or more drop in producers' profits. "The industry has outstripped our expectations and grown a lot faster than we thought," says institute program director Patrick Westhoff.

What of the promise of ethanol replacing gas? Don't count on it. General Motors (GM ) and Ford Motor (F ) have made a push this year to promote vehicles that can run on gas or E85, a fuel that's 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. But E85 gets worse mileage than gas, a problem if ethanol is costlier. And right now there are only about 600 E85 pumps nationwide.

Ethanol's fans say the fuel is a blessing in this time of high gas prices and global warming. But energy is a cyclical business. Prospecting in the cornfield might prove as risky as prospecting in an oil field.

[daskro]

wow, up nearly 10% today. For a company that has no earnings, people are eating it up.

[New-born baby]

Too hot

wow, up nearly 10% today. For a company that has no earnings, people are eating it up.

Overheating today for sure. Tomorrow she falls $2.

[mrmarket]

Overheating today for sure. Tomorrow she falls $2.

Ok..I need to liquidate my options this week. Sell now? Wait til tomorrow? Thursday??? What do you expert technicians say???

[New-born baby]

I would not wait

Ok..I need to liquidate my options this week. Sell now? Wait til tomorrow? Thursday??? What do you expert technicians say???

Right now, imho. I would not wait for the last 15 minutes because I think she sells off some, and tomorrow, it will be a down day. This is just my best guess. PEIX has turned into an emotional play right now, but realistically, I think some of the big boys take profits very soon.

This thing is pure emotion right now.