Quasi-Ernie's Investment Club

[Rob]

Imcl

Here's another reason I think IMCL stands a good chance of going places.

In addition to the above, for those of you who don't follow the story, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) will be holding their annual meeting the 1st week in June. This is the Mecca for all biotechs involved in developing cancer treatments.

Test results that are less significant are usually given "poster" status, while more significant results are featured as oral presentations. A search of this year's program turns up 30 posters and the following 4 oral presentations involving cetuximab (Erbitux). My comments are in [brackets].

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1. Oral Presentation:
Monday, 06/05/2006 4:30 PM - 4:45 PM Phase III study of irinotecan/5FU/LV (FOLFIRI) or oxaliplatin/5FU/LV (FOLFOX) ± cetuximab for patients (pts) with untreated metastatic adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum (MCRC): CALGB 80203 preliminary results. Abstract No: 3509 [Erbitux in 1st line colorectal cancer threatens to take market share from Genentech's Avastin. Currently, Erbitux is approved only for use in 3rd line treatment of CRC.]

2. Oral Presentation:
Sunday, 06/04/2006 3:00 PM - 3:15 PM Concurrent chemotherapy plus cetuximab or chemotherapy followed by cetuximab in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): A randomized phase II selectional trial SWOG 0342. Abstract No: 7015 [Potentially a HUGE driver for future Erbitux sales. The fact that this is an oral presentation may indicate positive results.]

3 & 4. Parts 2 & 3 of a 3-part Symposium:
Monday, 06/05/2006 4:50 PM - 5:05 PM Multi-targeted inhibition of the epidermal growth factor (EGFR) and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) pathways: A phase I study of cetuximab (C), erlotinib (E), and bevacizumab (B) in patients with solid tumors. Abstract No: 3005 [Bevacizumab is Avastin. There is speculation that an Erbitux-Avastin combo as part of a "drug cocktail" may eventually becaome a standard of treatment in patients with solid tumors.]

Monday, 06/05/2006 5:05 PM - 5:20 PM A phase I pharmacokinetic (PK) and molecular pharmacodynamic (PD) study of the combination of two anti-EGFR therapies, the monoclonal antibody (MAb) cetuximab (C) and the tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) gefitinib (G), in patients (pts) with advanced colorectal (CRC), head and neck (HNC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Abstract No: 3006 [Not sure what to make of this one, but here we have Erbitux again being tested in non-small cell lung cancer, which has a huge potential market.]
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The abstracts are pre-released to the oncology community in advance of the meeting, ostensibly to allow them to create a schedule of presentations they are interested in attending, but I suspect they really look at them to see which stocks to buy. Yeah, that's right ... don't tell me it doesn't happen. Anyway, supposedly those abstracts will be pre-released next week, so watch the stock action of your favorite cancer biotech firm.

[Rob]

For Your Edification

(As you can see, I like this stock.)

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 9, 2006 7:01 p.m.

WASHINGTON -- Billionaire Carl C. Icahn reported Tuesday buying 47,527 more shares of ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL), which makes his stake in the biopharmaceutical company exceed 10%.

Icahn bought the 47,527 ImClone shares last Friday at $37.27 a share, according to a Form 4 filed Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Icahn now beneficially owns about 8.5 million ImClone shares, which represent about 10.1% of the 84 million shares of common stock outstanding as of April 13 as reported in ImClone's most recent annual report.

As reported, ImClone recently amended its stockholder rights plan to increase the triggering threshold to 19.9% from 15% following discussions with Icahn.

In January, ImClone disclosed it hired Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) to review strategic alternatives, including the potential sale of the company.

Major ImClone shareholder Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) said in February that it would cooperate with a potential sale of Imclone.

ImClone Systems stock closed Tuesday at $37.95 each, up 6 cents

[mimo_100]

On page one of this thread (May 2), I suggested



“How about GG or ^HUI or ^GOX or ^XAU?”



GG, GLD, and IAU are all up over 4% since 5/2.



This is a good 6 month to one year play.

[Lyehopper]

keep this thread alive "Q"....

Hey Quasi.... Don't let this thread die dude! It's a great idea and we're all for it. BUT.... I think we need a more formalized process when buying a pick.

EXAMPLE: ECOL was purchased too quickly and there wasn't enough discussion. Even though I like ECOL I would not have voted to buy it yet (if asked).... Looks like BillyJoe posted that several members liked it and BOOM it was purchased without further discussion.

For this deal to work out you are gonna have to direct things for the members.... Ask us specific questions about the picks then make rulings based on the answers. jmo

[gerihearne]

stewart's stock

(As you can see, I like this stock.)

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 9, 2006 7:01 p.m.

WASHINGTON -- Billionaire Carl C. Icahn reported Tuesday buying 47,527 more shares of ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL), which makes his stake in the biopharmaceutical company exceed 10%.

ImClone Systems stock closed Tuesday at $37.95 each, up 6 cents

Just curious Rob .. have you discussed this with Martha ?

[Rob]

It's Not What You Know; It's Who You Know

Just curious Rob .. have you discussed this with Martha ?

Geri, yes I have a hotline to Martha Stewart and Peter Bacanovic, not unlike Commissioner Gordon's red bat phone. It's pretty cool because not only am I tipped off on when to bail, but I can also find out instantly things like how deep to plant tulip bulbs and which side of the plate the salad fork goes on.

[gerihearne]

Geri, yes I have a hotline to Martha Stewart and Peter Bacanovic, not unlike Commissioner Gordon's red bat phone. It's pretty cool because not only am I tipped off on when to bail, but I can also find out instantly things like how deep to plant tulip bulbs and which side of the plate the salad fork goes on.

I see Martha helps out alot in the Rob household. Wonder if she can help with GoJi preps? Or is that only a Lyehopper trademark?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I think some major changes must be made in order for this thread to survive.

#1 Change name of thread since quasi-ernie only communicates through POTW

#2 Form advisory board to maintain communication

#3 Set definite standards for picking stocks. If we look for perfect setups,we'll be inundated with submissions and people wanting to sell daily after setups fail. It will be difficult to get a large number of members to agree about anything

#4 Look for high quality underpriced longer term holdings. This will keep the portfolio at a reasonable number not requiring daily maintenance.

#5 Use Mr.Market's dumps , when he has one , as a major supplier of leads. Why should we do all the work ? He's proven himself many times over.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I think some major changes must be made in order for this thread to survive.

#1 Change name of thread since quasi-ernie only communicates through POTW

#2 Form advisory board to maintain communication

#3 Set definite standards for picking stocks. If we look for perfect setups,we'll be inundated with submissions and people wanting to sell daily after setups fail. It will be difficult to get a large number of members to agree about anything

#4 Look for high quality underpriced longer term holdings. This will keep the portfolio at a reasonable number not requiring daily maintenance.

#5 Use Mr.Market's dumps , when he has one , as a major supplier of leads. Why should we do all the work ? He's proven himself many times over.

billyjoe

I can't speak for Rob but I don't mind "Q" having this thread and bringing it forward. The "issue" in the POTW is that "Q" only communicated with the current scorekeeper.... and only picks current $$MM$$ positions....

This thread has nothing to do with the POTW and "Q" should not feel badly about the POTW "incident".... he should just forge ahead with this thread and he should manage and direct it, ask for input and opinions from the members.... and generally set things up anyway he see's fit....

[skiracer]

I can't speak for Rob but I don't mind "Q" having this thread and bringing it forward. The "issue" in the POTW is that "Q" only communicated with the current scorekeeper.... and only picks current $$MM$$ positions....

This thread has nothing to do with the POTW and "Q" should not feel badly about the POTW "incident".... he should just forge ahead with this thread and he should manage and direct it, ask for input and opinions from the members.... and generally set things up anyway he see's fit....

I agree with Lye. Let Quasi run the thread. No one has been putting up any picks of late. I put up FLOW and boy am I glad we didn't go with that one as it turned down bigtime. Put up some picks everyone. I exited ECOL, only because I wanted to hold onto those gains, but even though I'm out I still like the stock alot an am looking for a re-entry. Still feel it has $30 in it.

[Rob]

For The Record, etc.

For the record, I like the fact that someone can take the Quasi-Ernie concept and run with it. My only sticking point is that in the POTW thread the scorekeeper, and only the scorekeeper, "hears" from the Q which stocks he will play that week. And as explained the Q only plays one of the real Ernie's holdings; also when the real Ernie sells a certain position, then so does Quasi-Ernie.

I mean it when I say I am not the POTW scorekeeper. Even though I've been filling that position for some time now, I still view it as a temporary thing, giving big Lye a helpin' hand for a spell. In all likelihood the day will soon come when I will no longer be able to do the scorekeeping. And when that happens, Q-Ernie will tell whomever is doing it then what his picks are.

I like the idea of people putting their heads together to come up with good picks.

Perhaps the active members can rate submitted picks on a scale of one to one hundred, one being a no-go under any circumstances, and one hundred being a successful pick of metaphysical certitude, where only those stocks garnering an average of .. say ... 80 or more, will be purchased ... or something similar to that.

In the interests of codifying this idea into a workable concept, I would further recommend that a certain time frame be imposed upon newly submitted stocks for consideration ... like 48 hours for example ... for active participants to rate the submission. And a minimum of 320 cumulative rating points be required for a purchase (i.e. at least four participants rating the stock at 80 or more). Does anyone see what I'm getting at here? I agree that there has to be some structure to this thing that everyone can understand in order for it to work, so I'm just throwing out suggestions. Agree? Disagree? Have your say, and let this thread's Quasi-Ernie be the final arbiter of the settled protocols. That's my suggestion, FWIW.

[Websman]

Rob, can you shorten and simplify your message... Us South Alabama Rednecks don't understand complicated meesages like that.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I think it will be difficult enough to get people to agree on a pick even without a scoring system. How about we put all interested members name in a hat, draw out names. Make a schedule based on 2 picks each month. Each person will have a 15 day time period to make a decision based on their research plus input from others. If we get enough volunteers each person would only have to come up with a pick once or twice a year. This way will provide added entertainment as we can harass or praise individuals as we see the results.

billyjoe

[Rob]

Simplification

Rob, can you shorten and simplify your message... Us South Alabama Rednecks don't understand complicated meesages like that.

Okay, Webs, try this one ...

We need rulz! What are they?

[Rob]

Rob,
I think it will be difficult enough to get people to agree on a pick even without a scoring system. How about we . . .

It's all up to Quasi-Ernie. However he sees fit.