PARL - This is just goofy

[Lyehopper]

If I'm not mistaken, Bruce at Poormans added shares of PARL after he sold off HOM. He thinks PARL might go beyond the 14.50 (post split) buyout target because of valuation.

[Lyehopper]

Totally agree that it's a game, I certainly don't consider myself an "owner", and don't expect management to pay any attention to me. I must admit though, Doug, that I don't understand your obsession with Homer.

Speaking of "Homers".... I hear Doug reek'd of anchovies and pineapple Thursday morning after an evening with The Stock Girl....SsSsSsSssssss!

[spikefader]

If I'm not mistaken, Bruce at Poormans added shares of PARL after he sold off HOM. He thinks PARL might go beyond the 14.50 (post split) buyout target because of valuation.

You still in love with PARL Lye? The TA points to 6.00 first. Reviewed PARL today.

[Lyehopper]

You still in love with PARL Lye? The TA points to 6.00 first. Reviewed PARL today.

Nah.... I have a teeny-weeny position because I still hold it as a "featured position" on my thread at around $13.49 (post split), AND I do mean teeeeeny-weeeeeny.lol

I'ts a soap opra over at PARL that's for sure. I think it's interesting that Bruce still likes it.... I might would trade it (short term) if the urge hit's me.... But I don't really see it as a quality investment anymore.

GEHL on the other hand?.... I still love, but I'm afraid it'll turn back south to NBB's target of $18-$19 (pulling my retracement from a 4 year chart).... I expect the steel stocks to turn back down another 30% or so too.... What do you currently think about GEHL (and the basic steel group AKS, STLD, X, etc.) Spike, NBB, Anyone?

[New-born baby]

Ugly

Nah....
It's a soap opra over at PARL that's for sure.

What do you currently think about GEHL (and the basic steel group AKS, STLD, X, etc.) Spike, NBB, Anyone?

Lye:
Look at GEHL's point n figure. Looks like it got hit by the back end of a manure spreader. Triple bottom breakdown on 22 MAY 2006 that makes for a . . . are you sitting down? . . . $5 target.

Hey, stop laughing! Those PnF charts aren't always accurate, but one thing I like about them is this: they always tell you what it is until it ain't. In other words, they don't go bullish/bearish on a stock without a reason. Look at the daily. Looks like a slip 'n slide which my kids play on. Nasty.

Having said that, I do realize that the daily almost--almost-- looks inverted head and shoulders, but with a measley bull target to $26. (Current price $24.79--lousy r/r). Not my kind of chart just yet.

Here's a look at ugly:

[spikefader]

Nah.... I have a teeny-weeny position because I still hold it as a "featured position" on my thread at around $13.49 (post split), AND I do mean teeeeeny-weeeeeny.lol

I'ts a soap opra over at PARL that's for sure. I think it's interesting that Bruce still likes it.... I might would trade it (short term) if the urge hit's me.... But I don't really see it as a quality investment anymore.

GEHL on the other hand?.... I still love, but I'm afraid it'll turn back south to NBB's target of $18-$19 (pulling my retracement from a 4 year chart).... I expect the steel stocks to turn back down another 30% or so too.... What do you currently think about GEHL (and the basic steel group AKS, STLD, X, etc.) Spike, NBB, Anyone?

Good one. If PARL can get over the major red C in that chart, then it will have potential. But I suspect it's gonna take several months to establish some kind of base worth trading off.

For GEHL, here's the chart. The reaction to the approaching channel short and C corrective is going to be the telling TA. Bulls need the forthcoming C to fails as resistance. 30 will likely resist well, since it's price, vol by price, and fib resistance.

[New-born baby]

Stld

Lye:
STLD is another matter altogether. I took it in my POTW for the first part of the week, and Stock Girl shorted it. She looked smart for Monday. I should have timed my entry better. In any case, STLD rocketed up over $4 in one day. The chart isn't fully mature just yet, but I am thinking STLD is headed north. PnF likes it to $77. Frankly it needed a pullback. It was overbought for 10 weeks. I like this stock, and its options are nice, too.

X: has basically a mirror chart of STLD. I like it.

What I am really thinking, Lyebaby, is that the symmetrical triangle chart on oil is really going to tell the tale for the entire market: gold, USD, stocks, everything. That crude chart is unresolved as of today. If it would just bust that $68.75 support on volume! The USD is showing an inverted head and shoulders, but no neckline break just yet. If that neckline busts, the dollar will have the power of the Reagan years. The market will roll like a Cat steamroller.

Should oil break north out of that triangle--and I have friends who insist--insist--that oil will not break that $68 support, and we will see $80 before we see $60--well, if they are right, we see a major collapse in the market. 8300 Dow or lower. USD falling further; interest rates much higher, ala Jimmy Eugene Carter's 18%+. I really don't want to see that. And a bear market.
Ugh!

You know, they have this on there side of the ledger: we have had about a 4 yr. bull market. If oil breaks South, we'll have an unprecedented bull market. Seems unlikely, doesn't it?

Meanwhile, the chart is unresolved.

[spikefader]

Lye:
Look at GEHL's point n figure. Looks like it got hit by the back end of a manure spreader. Triple bottom breakdown on 22 MAY 2006 that makes for a . . . are you sitting down? . . . $5 target.

Hey, stop laughing! Those PnF charts aren't always accurate, but one thing I like about them is this: they always tell you what it is until it ain't. In other words, they don't go bullish/bearish on a stock without a reason. Look at the daily. Looks like a slip 'n slide which my kids play on. Nasty.

Having said that, I do realize that the daily almost--almost-- looks inverted head and shoulders, but with a measley bull target to $26. (Current price $24.79--lousy r/r). Not my kind of chart just yet.

Here's a look at ugly:

Hey New-Born Bubba. Yeah, 'ol GEHL not smelly to rosey on the daily. But hey, I just did the weekly chart. Major channel long with outstanding money flow historically. I reckon if it can get its hocks over the approaching daily C and over 30.00 then it's got a good chance...

[New-born baby]

Hey New-Born Bubba. Yeah, 'ol GEHL not smelly to rosey on the daily. But hey, I just did the weekly chart. Major channel long with outstanding money flow historically. I reckon if it can get its hocks over the approaching daily C and over 30.00 then it's got a good chance...

Hey, look at that weekly GEHL chart. Looks like a massive head and shoulders forming. So you want to catch the bounce up, and short the dog down to oblivion, eh? Why not? When it falls you'll have to dig a hole to find the bottom.

How about this respectful comment: I don't trust the CFM chart on the weekly. Case in point: TOL showed positive money flow all the way down from $50 to $25. The daily, well, that's a diffo matter.

[Runner]

Nah.... I have a teeny-weeny position because I still hold it as a "featured position" on my thread at around $13.49 (post split), AND I do mean teeeeeny-weeeeeny.lol

I'ts a soap opra over at PARL that's for sure. I think it's interesting that Bruce still likes it.... I might would trade it (short term) if the urge hit's me.... But I don't really see it as a quality investment anymore.

GEHL on the other hand?.... I still love, but I'm afraid it'll turn back south to NBB's target of $18-$19 (pulling my retracement from a 4 year chart).... I expect the steel stocks to turn back down another 30% or so too.... What do you currently think about GEHL (and the basic steel group AKS, STLD, X, etc.) Spike, NBB, Anyone?

Lye, IMO I think Iron &Steel look like shorts to me. Many charts I looked at in the group seem to be setting up short. The Sub sector also has that drifting action to it.

[DSteckler]

TOL showed positive money flow all the way down from $50 to $25. The daily, well, that's a diffo matter.

Use a different charting service or double check the money flow parameters. The weekly Volume Flow Indicator went negative the week of 8/26/05, when TOL was still at $50. It's been negative ever since except for the last three weeks in April.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, IMO I think Iron &Steel look like shorts to me. Many charts I looked at in the group seem to be setting up short. The Sub sector also has that drifting action to it.

I tend to agree Runner.... Call me old fashioned but I gage the steel industry by what I see every day in my business.... We ordered 40k pounds from GGB (Ameristeel) last week (my railway trackwork business is booming btw (see NSC) and I think it's due to the coal industry) and they (GGB) had the order in stock! We quoted STLD (was RESC) and GGB beat their price delivered.... For the past two years we've had to wait on their rolling schedule on EVERY ORDER! Prices are still up but remember that steel's just a stinkin' commodity, I've seen it all before. I don't see a huge connection between oil prices and steel prices.... Yes there's some, but steel ain't hooked to oil "at the hip" or anything (they don't move in lock step in other words).... When steel prices start to fall they can fall fast (20 to 30% in a 4-6 weeks). If the economy softens due to rising oil.... Oil will continue to rise.... and as steel inventories rise and orders fall then basic steel stocks could crash like a shot quail.

I'll probably short steel into any strength again this week, I could be early on this call but I really think "Steel's" due a further correction.... If I do short sell it I'll post it.

As for "The Stock Girl's" short play on STLD, I think she just wanted to play opposite you NBB, she might have "a little thing" for you dude....heh heh

[spikefader]

Hey, look at that weekly GEHL chart. Looks like a massive head and shoulders forming. So you want to catch the bounce up, and short the dog down to oblivion, eh? Why not? When it falls you'll have to dig a hole to find the bottom.

How about this respectful comment: I don't trust the CFM chart on the weekly. Case in point: TOL showed positive money flow all the way down from $50 to $25. The daily, well, that's a diffo matter.

Yep, it sure does look like a massive SHS. And ya know, that's fair enough re the weekly money flow. One should never trust any one isolated thing...and it always and forever comes down to trading plans that have great r/r, and taking the medicine if the plan fails, and moving on to the next setup happy for sticking to a plan....especially when something like TOL or PARL or GEHL selloffs whack bagholders. The fact is that at some point in time, no matter how good the money flow has been historically on the weekly, money is going to be taken off the table and a profit-taking snowball effect can easily show up. BBD is a classic example. MM's model picked the stock; it had great fundies, weekly money flow was awesome, daily money flow was awesome, his due diligence and write up was awesome........and all from a stinkin' SHS he buys on the R shoulder and gets whacked. MFLX is another classic; both weekly and money flows were brilliant......whacked after a double top.

Both occasions a measly daily pattern was the start of red pain that combined, sent the average of the 2 stocks to half the value of the investment! So yes, good point New-Born, don't just trust money flow and hold in hope!

[New-born baby]

Welcome Mr. StagFlation.

I tend to agree Runner.... Call me old fashioned but I gage the steel industry by what I see every day in my business.... We ordered 40k pounds from GGB (Ameristeel) last week (my railway trackwork business is booming btw (see NSC) and I think it's due to the coal industry) and they (GGB) had the order in stock! We quoted STLD (was RESC) and GGB beat their price delivered.... For the past two years we've had to wait on their rolling schedule on EVERY ORDER! Prices are still up but remember that steel's just a stinkin' commodity, I've seen it all before. I don't see a huge connection between oil prices and steel prices.... Yes there's some, but steel ain't hooked to oil "at the hip" or anything (they don't move in lock step in other words).... When steel prices start to fall they can fall fast (20 to 30% in a 4-6 weeks). If the economy softens due to rising oil.... Oil will continue to rise.... and as steel inventories rise and orders fall then basic steel stocks could crash like a shot quail.

I'll probably short steel into any strength again this week, I could be early on this call but I really think "Steel's" due a further correction.... If I do short sell it I'll post it.

As for "The Stock Girl's" short play on STLD, I think she just wanted to play opposite you NBB, she might have "a little thing" for you dude....heh heh

Lye:
Yeah, you could be right about steel stocks . . . no, I don't think steel and oil are joined at the hip. I think oil and the entire US economy are joined at the hip, though. Oil goes up any further, and US and the global economy sink.

So you'd say oil, after basing here, will continue higher? That descending triangle then would just be a continuation pattern . . . pointing to--lookout Max--$80+ oil. No doubt the entire Dow will just nosedive into the dirt; USD plummets; gold rises; consumer spending drops and economy sags as Bernard raises interest rates to attract foreign investment.

I'll be watching your play. I am still in cash.

[New-born baby]

Spike's Prognosis

Spike,
What's your prognonis on the markets now? I am looking at charts, and still sitting entirely in cash. How's that Vector doing? BTW, that Fear Chart hit Ultra Lows that haven't been seen in years. "Ultra Extreme Fear."