Lemonjello's intermittent skullduggery

[lemonjello]

History doesn't repeat, but it sometimes rhymes - Twain

A few random thoughts on where we are now vis a vis the 1960's-70's-80's.

Economic historians please feel free to correct or contribute.

60's analog tech boom (electronics, chemicals) in stocks ran up and crashed.
90's digital tech boom (you know what) in stocks ran up and crashed. Check.

70's oil price skyrockets based on Arab/Israel conflicts.
00's oil price skyrockets based on Arab/Israel conflicts. Check.

70's US involved in a war in Vietnam with no apparent exit strategy.
00's US involved in a war in Iraq with no apparent exit strategy. Check.

70's US President Nixon alledgedly taking liberties with the law.
90'/00's US Presidents Clinton and W alledgedly taking liberties with the law. Check.

80's New Fed President Greenspan tries on the shoes of the great Paul Volker.
00's New Fed President Bernanke tries on the shoes of the now revered Alan Greenspan. Check.

80's stock indices plummet in a single day soon after Greenspan takes appointment.
00's stock indices ? soon after Bernanke takes appointment.

80's US car companies on verge of bankruptcy due to foreign competition.
00's US car companies on verge of bankruptcy due to foreign competition, etc. Check.

70's/80's House prices ramp and peak based on loose lending practices by S&Ls.
00's House prices ramp and peak based on loose lending practices by various entities. Check.

90's financial crisis created by S&L scandals and gubmint bailout, creation of RTC.
00's ?

70's/80's Disco.
90's/00's Rap. Check.

80's LBO activity heats up as companies go private.
00's LBO activity heats up as companies go private. Check.

80's stock prices bottom and start a multi decade bull market.
00's stock prices bottom and ?.

Isn't that interesting. Probably missed some.

[eliaskane]

I think a clear and obvious hypothesis for stagnant wages, even in the white collar ranks, is the factor of increased immigrant participation in the economy. [...]

I don't see any national news coverage of these phenomena, even among the national political reporters, as significant issues in explaining what is happening to wages in the overall economy.

Historically, fields like engineering were preferred by immigrants who wanted to get ahead. Read the history of any industry that depends on innovation. This goes back a century or more, for instance, to immigrants like Steinmetz and Tesla as key figures in the early days of commercial electric power.

Wage stagnation has gotten some serious press lately, especially since the Census Bureau report that just came out. I agree with your conclusion about whose interests are being served. It seems to me the country would be better off with a wage and income distribution more like, say, in the Eisenhower years. And the country would be better off for canceling the H-1B visa program and giving the people here on that ticket green cards instead. Then they'd turn into taxpayers and solid citizens instead of repatriating their money and expertise after a few years.

[lemonjello]

reviewjournal.com

By ASLAM ABDULLAH

Special to the Review-Journal


The leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, recently issued a decree to its supporters: Kill at least one American in the next two weeks "using a sniper rifle, explosive or whatever the battle may require."

Well, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, I am an American too. Count me as the one of those you have asked your supporters to kill.

I am not alone, there are thousands of Muslims with me in Las Vegas, and many more millions in America, who are proud Americans and who are ready to face your challenge. You hide in your caves and behind the faces of civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq. You don't show your faces and you have no guts to face Muslims. You thrive on the misery of thousands of Muslim youth and children who are victims of despotism, poverty and ignorance.

During the past two decades, you have brought nothing but shame and disaster to your religion and your world.

You said you "invite you not to drop your weapons, and don't let your souls or your enemies rest until each one of you kills at least one American within a period that does not exceed 15 days with a sniper's gunshot or incendiary devices or Molotov cocktail or a suicide car bomb -- whatever the battle may require." I invite you to surrender, to seek forgiveness from God almighty for the senseless killing you and your supporters are involved in and repent for everything you have done.

You say that the word of God is the highest. Yes, it is. But you are not worthy of it. You have abandoned God and you have started worshipping your own satanic egos that rejoice at the killing of innocent people. You don't represent Muslims or, for that matter, any decent human being who believes in the sanctity of life. Many among us American Muslims have differences with our administration on domestic and foreign issues, just like many other Americans do. But the plurality of opinions does not mean that we deprive ourselves of the civility that God demands from us. America is our home and will always be our home. Its interests are ours, and its people are ours. When you talk of killing of Americans, you first have to kill 6 million or so Muslims who will stand for every American's right to live and enjoy the life as commanded by God.

By growing a beard, shouting some religious slogans and misquoting and misusing some verses of the divine scriptures, you cannot incite Muslims to do things that are contrary to our religion. Yes, you even fail to understand the basic Islamic principles of life and living. Islam demands peace in all aspects of life, Islam demands respect for life. Islam demands justice.

What you are doing in Iraq, Afghanistan, India or other parts of the world is anti-human and anti-divine. You are an enemy of Islam as much as you are an enemy of America. You must understand that God who entrusted you with life is the same God who spelled his spirit in every human being regardless of his or her religion or ethnicity or nationality or status. You are violating him.

We feel totally disgusted with your action and we condemn you without any reservation. Don't come to our mosques to preach this hatred. Don't visit our Islamic centers to spill the blood of innocents. Don't think that just because we share the same religion, we would show some sympathy to you. You are not of us. You don't belong to the religion whose followers are trying to live a peaceful life for themselves and others serving the divine according to their understanding. In our understanding of faith, you appear as anti-divine and anti-human. We reject you now as we rejected you yesterday.

There is nothing common between you and us.

We stand for life, you want to destroy it.

We accept the divine scheme of diversity in the world and you want to impose conformity.

We respect every human being simply because he or she is a creation of the divine, and you hate people based on their religion and ethnicity.

We support freedom and liberty and justice, and you promote bigotry, murder and strangulation.

You will never be able to find a sympathetic voice amidst us. Our differences with others will never lead us to do things that are fundamentally wrong in our faith, i. e. taking the lives of innocent people and killing others because they are different.

So on Sept. 11, when you will be hiding in your caves, we will be out in the streets paying tribute to those who you killed because you failed to see the beauty of life. We will condemn you once again the same way we have been doing ever since 9/11 because we are Muslim Americans.

Aslam Abdullah is director of the Islamic Soceity of Nevada.

Re: the Brits are watching

I think a clear and obvious hypothesis for stagnant wages, even in the white collar ranks, is the factor of increased immigrant participation in the economy. H1B visas in the high tech sector, foreign-born scientists and technicians who stay in America after gaining an American college degree, and of course below-market undocumented workers. All of these factors, combined with continuing productivity gains from increased automation and offshoring of previously high-paying technical and professional jobs, combine to suppress the "flow through" of economic benefits to workers.

I don't see any national news coverage of these phenomena, even among the national political reporters, as significant issues in explaining what is happening to wages in the overall economy. These results in the wage area are consistent with implementation of policies that are in the interests of the traditional Republican constituency (business and the wealthy). So those political interests are having success making policy in the Executive and Legislative branches, and that success can be measured in these aspects of the national economic performance. Lower taxes on the wealthy and on corporations, weaker regulation of many parts of the private sector, a policy of non-enforcement of hiring of undocumented workers (the money is spent instead on defense), etc., etc. We will see in the next set of elections whether a majority of voters believe that these are the preferred results.

[IIC]

I've heard that zillow isn't very accurate at this point. A work in progress.

It is very inaccurate. Example...my parent's house is valued at over 100 grand less than their neighbor's...yet they have the same size lot and my parent's house is 500+ sq. ft larger...There is nothing at the neighbor's that sets it apart...EXCEPT...it has been sold a couple of times in the last 15 years...My parent's bot their house in the 60's...I checked quite a few comps in different areas that I am familiar with and invariably the homes that had more recent sales were valued higher...I think it needs some work...Doug(IIC)

[lemonjello]

The Brits are watching

Check out these charts -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5303590.stm

The end of the American dream?
Analysis
By Steve Schifferes
...

The US economy has been generating strong economic growth over the past few years as it has come out of recession.

After growing at more than 3% a year in 2004 and 2005, the pace picked up to a blistering 5.6% annual rate in the first quarter of this year - although the pace has since then slipped back to 2.9%.

So far, though, little of that growth has translated into the hands of the average worker, according to new research from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

For real household incomes, the median point - the level at which half of households earn more and half less - has actually fallen over the past five years.

That marks a notable contrast with the 1990s, when the economic boom boosted both jobs and incomes.

The puzzle of economic expansion without significant job or wage growth has been troubling US economists and commentators of all political persuasions.

Slowing wages

"The unprecedented split between growth and living standards is the defining economic agenda of the day," says the EPI's senior economist, Jared Bernstein.

During the five years from 2000 to 2005, the US economy grew in size from $9.8 trillion to $11.2 trillion, an increase in real terms of 14%.

Productivity - the measure of the output of the economy per worker employed - grew even more strongly, by 16.6%.

family incomes

But over the same period, the median family's income slid by 2.9%, in contrast to the 11.3% gain registered in the second half of the 1990s.

The wages of households of African or Hispanic origin fell even faster.

And new entrants to the labour market fared particularly badly.

Average hourly real wages for both college and high school graduates actually fell between 2000 and 2005, and fewer of the jobs they found carried benefits such as health care or company pensions.

The poor performance of the US economy in delivering fuller wage packets may be one reason why the public gives the Bush administration's such a low rating on economic policy.

According to the latest Gallup poll, only 37% approve of Mr Bush's handling of the economy, and 70% think economic conditions are getting worse, substantially worse figures than in 2004.

With mid-term elections to the House of Representatives and Senate - both, currently, held by Mr Bush's Republicans - due in November, the contrasts are concentrating minds in both main parties.

Where has the increase gone?

One way to comprehend what is happening is to look at the split between how much of the economy is won by profits and how much by wages.

The share allotted to corporate profits increased sharply, from 17.7% in 2000 to 20.9% in 2005, while the share going to wages has reached a record low.

Meanwhile, a large section of the workforce - the unemployed or those not seeking work - have not benefited from economic growth.

Unemployment has remained stubbornly high despite the economic recovery, with the latest figure at 4.7% compared to 4% at the end of 2000. Overall job growth in the first half of the current decade has been just 1.3%.

In the 1990s, job growth of some 12% goes some way towards explaining why prosperity in that earlier period spread down the income scale.

Rising inequality

Even for those with jobs, the fruits of economic growth have been more unequally distributed within the labour market.

The incomes of the top 20% have grown much faster than earnings of those at the middle or bottom of the income distribution. The income of the top 1% and top 0.1% have grown particularly rapidly.
...

[lemonjello]

I've heard that zillow isn't very accurate at this point. A work in progress.

You know about ZILLOW.COM? Type in your home address, and see what Zillow thinks your home's worth. It knows how to do comps with homes recently sold that are "similar" to yours in your neighborhood, zip code, county, etc.

nytimes.com

You know about ZILLOW.COM? Type in your home address, and see what Zillow thinks your home's worth. It knows how to do comps with homes recently sold that are "similar" to yours in your neighborhood, zip code, county, etc.

[lemonjello]

I thought you were gonna buy it!

Nice "Mention".... Did you buy it?

[lemonjello]

more interesting housing stuff

nytimes.com

[Lyehopper]

The talking heads on TV call this a "mention". MA is up around 30% since my "mention".

I am REALLY BIG - but in a low body fat % way.

Send me your finest Ritz crackers and Cheese Whiz!

Nice "Mention".... Did you buy it?

[lemonjello]

The talking heads on TV call this a "mention". MA is up around 30% since my "mention".

I am REALLY BIG - but in a low body fat % way.

Send me your finest Ritz crackers and Cheese Whiz!

Here's a recent IPO that I'm looking at.

Mastercard - MA. These guys run a money machine.

Any thoughts?

The CEO just bought around $4.5 million shares and he's not alone.

MM will like their earnings-

http://investorrelations.mastercardi...016&highlight=

[lemonjello]

Trudat

...and that government of the corporations, by the corporations, for the corporations, shall not perish from the earth.

Abe Lincoln (updated)

I would say: wrong question. Rather, how many BUYERS OF VOTERS (i.e., campaign contributors) read Barron's? Answer: plenty!

Then again, the general public will probably never know the difference; how many voters read Barrons?

I would say: wrong question. Rather, how many BUYERS OF VOTERS (i.e., campaign contributors) read Barron's? Answer: plenty!

[lemonjello]

Not someone to take lightly.

His comments about the F-22 not being able to be used in combat were interesting. I'd like to see his source for that statement about fuel and range. Is that common knowledge found in Jane's, or is it just word of mouth info being passed around certain circles? The F-22 seems impressive in other aspects like supposedly being able to engage and "kill" five F-16's simultaneously in combat simulations.

I'm sure a lot of people in the military/industrial complex will have their hackles raised when they read that. Then again, the general public will probably never know the difference; how many voters read Barrons?

Lemon,
He's a sharp dude for any age.

-----------billyjoe