Lemonjello's intermittent skullduggery

[Lyehopper]

Lemon, I like your thread....

[mrmarket]

Vice President Dick Cheney's financial advisers are apparently betting on a rise in inflation and interest rates and on a decline in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies. That's the conclusion we draw after scouring the financial disclosure form released by Cheney recently.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com....aspx?page=all

If this is true, Bush's popularity will be at a historical low when he exits the presidency. History will be very unkind to dubbya.

[lemonjello]

Just trying to convey an idea of the bigger economic picture (maybe not so hot). Combine that with the long term charts that are breaking down. Even though Bernanke is signaling a soft landing, to me it still looks up in the air. The Fed uses a lot of different data tho so maybe corp earnings will power thru. Plus you may be able to buy some cheap real estate in the next couple of years - the early 90's in Cali?

Just for grins - the futs are showing gold could make another run up and the dollar another run down in the next few weeks. Maybe around the next FOMC meeting which is Aug 8. Hmmmm. No guarantees tho. Stay tuned to your Bat Channel.

That's good stuff, lemon ... I mean, not that real estate is looking like the bottom's fixing to fall out, but good articles you're bringing to our attention.

Hey, if real estate tanks so badly that people have to walk away from their mortgages and let the banks foreclose, there's always that van down by the river.

[IIC]

That's good stuff, lemon ... I mean, not that real estate is looking like the bottom's fixing to fall out, but good articles you're bringing to our attention.

Hey, if real estate tanks so badly that people have to walk away from their mortgages and let the banks foreclose, there's always that van down by the river.

I believe there will be a lot of walk-a-ways next year and the year after...IIC

[Rob]

That's good stuff, lemon ... I mean, not that real estate is looking like the bottom's fixing to fall out, but good articles you're bringing to our attention.

Hey, if real estate tanks so badly that people have to walk away from their mortgages and let the banks foreclose, there's always that van down by the river.

[lemonjello]

What happens in Vegas stays on the market

Barrons.com

The latest housing numbers certainly suggest that the end is getting nearer in Las Vegas. Sales of local homes fell nearly 24% in June from the same period in 2005, while the number of listed homes rose nearly 32% from a year earlier, to a record 20,026, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. The statistics on condominiums and townhouses are even more telling, with listings up in June nearly 83% from a year ago and sales down 22%. "We've got a dramatic increase in inventory," says Jack Woodcock, founder of the Las Vegas realty brokerage Prudential Americana Group.

"We've got 400 to 500 houses in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range that have never been lived in and are sitting on the market for over a year." In fact, a full 40% of all the area's homes for resale aren't even occupied, according to First American Title Co. That's usually a sign of a market that has been inflated by speculative fever.

[Rob]

"I'm sorry I ever made that comment," she said Thursday. "When I get my new term, I'll let you know."

How about "wild fluctuation"?

...One in 500,000 are good stockpickers.

... and one of those is named Sherri Haskell. I wish someone could persuade her to post on this forum!

[IIC]

One in 55 are RE agents...One in 300 are lawyers...One in 500,000 are good stockpickers...IIC

[lemonjello]

Say What?!

Housing Expert: 'Soft Landing' Off Mark
By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer
July 21, 2006

Leslie Appleton-Young is at a loss for words.

The chief economist of the California Assn. of Realtors has stopped using the term "soft landing" to describe the state's real estate market, saying she no longer feels comfortable with that mild label.

"Maybe we need something new. That's all I'm prepared to say," Appleton-Young said Thursday.

The shift in language comes as debate over the real estate market is intensifying. The long-awaited drop-off is happening, but there's little agreement about how brutal the landing will be.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in congressional testimony Thursday that the national housing downturn so far appears orderly.

At about the same time, however, D.R. Horton Inc. Chief Executive Donald Tomnitz was telling analysts that the home builder's sales in June "absolutely fell off the Richter scale." Horton, the nation's largest builder of residential housing, has numerous projects in California.

For real estate optimists, the phrase "soft landing" conveyed the soothing notion that the run-up in values over the last few years would be permanent. It wasn't a bubble, it was a new plateau.

The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction from a 2% slip to a 16.8% drop. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn't feel comfortable any longer using "soft landing."

"I'm sorry I ever made that comment," she said Thursday. "When I get my new term, I'll let you know."

If there's one group in California still unreservedly bullish on real estate, it might be the throngs lining up to take the licensing exams.

The state Department of Real Estate recently reported that the total number of agents in the state passed 500,000 in May for the first time. That's one agent for every 55 adults in the state.

Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: "We're expecting a fairly significant shakeout."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-soft21jul21,0,1398201,print.story?coll=la-headlines-politic

[lemonjello]

Cheneys betting on bad news?

Vice President Dick Cheney's financial advisers are apparently betting on a rise in inflation and interest rates and on a decline in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies. That's the conclusion we draw after scouring the financial disclosure form released by Cheney recently.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/CheneysBettingonBadNews.aspx?page=all

[IIC]

Rumor the other day was that 30%+ of the home loans in the San Diego area are nothing down ARM type loans. They are resetting now - interest rates increasing. Even upper middle class types are having a hard time paying for their million dollar McMansions.

Approx. 1/3 of the GDP increase for the last few years has been from the housing sector. Does flipping houses back and forth for nothing down really do anything to help the economy? Anybody remember the Resolution Trust Corporation?

Can Uncle Bennie bring the economy in for a soft landing? It's going to be more like landing a fighter jet on the deck of carrier during a hurricane IMO.

The RTS...oh yes...even had dealings w/ them in an old job.

RE is going to fall apart...I'm patiently waiting to swoop in and get some deals...Most should occur next year tho IMO...IIC


Edit: No...I do not believe he can do it...IMO we need a recession to get back on track

[lemonjello]

Rumor Mill

Rumor the other day was that 30%+ of the home loans in the San Diego area are nothing down ARM type loans. They are resetting now - interest rates increasing. Even upper middle class types are having a hard time paying for their million dollar McMansions.

Approx. 1/3 of the GDP increase for the last few years has been from the housing sector. Does flipping houses back and forth for nothing down really do anything to help the economy? Anybody remember the Resolution Trust Corporation?

Can Uncle Bennie bring the economy in for a soft landing? It's going to be more like landing a fighter jet on the deck of carrier during a hurricane IMO.

[lemonjello]

I liked this post so much I thought I'd repost it. Nothing has changed.=>

-----------------
- Changing the reporting of inflation to "core" meant that the bubble price increases of real estate were left out of the core as were oil and food. WTF? So -

- Our government had decided to "push back" the reported inflation drivers so they wouldn't show up until they reached things like wages and rents. In other words - reported inflation would have been a lot higher in the past few years if house prices, fuel and food increases were included.

- Wouldn't it be great if we charge our Visa up and then pay it back at $.40 on the $ (without bankruptcy)? Pay attention to the part about paying back debt ->
----------------------------
WSJ May 18, 2006; Page A14
"Widespread fear of another global energy crisis is rife, especially in light of the confrontation with Iran. But the second of Murphy's Laws cautions that what actually goes wrong is seldom what we anticipate. While the markets are clearly indicating something ominous, the current situation is mischaracterized as an energy crisis -- even if the price of a gallon of gas goes past $3 and stays there. Energy prices are simply keeping pace with the rising prices of gold and other commodities. What we are facing is a money crisis: an alarming outbreak of inflation and all its consequences.

It's silly to blame the rise in commodity prices on foreigners; no country, not even China or Saudi Arabia, has the market power to set off the kind of across-the-board acceleration in prices that we have been witnessing. Nor can prices rising this consistently and at this speed be attributed to an excess of global demand over supply, or fears about the political situation in Iraq or Iran. Speculators, another convenient scapegoat, also lack the power to drive world commodity markets, in spite of their rapacious reputation. The real culprit is the precipitous decline in the world's mightiest currency, the dollar, which has lost more than 60% of its gold value in just four years.
...If none of the usual suspects is responsible for gold's sharp rise, what is? We believe it represents an equally sharp decline in the confidence of investors -- large and small -- in the likelihood that Washington will pay back its mounting obligations in undepreciated money. Throughout history, and especially in wartime, governments have escaped from fiscal over-commitments by letting their currencies depreciate. Ambitious spending initiatives, threats of international conflict and even Washington's political unpopularity all contribute to the fear that this is happening again now.

Gold is the barometer of public confidence in fiat money, and it is difficult to rebuild confidence in a currency once it has been allowed to slide. Gold has been a reliable harbinger of many economic troubles -- not just of escalating prices at the gas pumps, but of inflation, rising interest rates, stagnation and poor investment performance on the part of bonds and equities alike. Changes in the price of gold are an excellent predictor of all of these. The dollar's collapse is nothing less than a body blow to capitalism. When we downplay the significance of energy prices, we are not denying that a crisis is looming. It's just a lot more threatening than an increase in the cost of a tank of gas.

Mr. Ranson and Ms. Russell are principals of H. C. Wainwright & Co., Economics, an investment-strategy research firm."

[lemonjello]

Bill Gross picked BGT as one of his rec's in this week's Barrons. BGT is a floating rate international income fund which pays around 8% interest. It should generally go up as interest rates go up.

Any comments on this idea ->

If you want a relatively stable income portion of your portfolio - e.g. buy X% BGT and Y% IEF which is a 7-10 year bond fund yielding around 4%. With some analysis you could come up with % that offsets each position as interest rates go up and down while you could get approx. 6% interest rate.

"In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? Anyone?... the Great Depression, passed the... Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?... raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Today we have a similar debate over this. Anyone know what this is? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone seen this before? The Laffer Curve. Anyone know what this says? It says that at this point on the revenue curve, you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point. This is very controversial. Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. "Voodoo" economics."

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

[lemonjello]

Don't know but doubt it.

Gary Kaltbaum answers his emails:

Was that the climactic reversal that ended the bear phase?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the bottom?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the low?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the bottom?

Don't know but doubt it.

CNBC said the market put in a "v" bottom. Don't you agree?

What is a CNBC and what is a "v" bottom?

Can we start buying again?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the bottom?

Don't know but doubt it.

Don't you think what we have seen is just a correction?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the bottom?

Don't know but doubt it.

Was that the bottom?

OK...enough, that was the bottom and the DOW is going to 40,000!