Rob's Lobs

[New-born baby]

The FLY

So who is the guy in the picture with the fly head?

The FLY is David Hedeson. And I thought it was pretty classy of him to come visit Rob's Lob's wearing a tux.

[Rob]

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)

Boy, who left the door open and let the flies in?

Anyway, it's thought that B.. B.. B.. Benny (and the Jetssssss) Bernanke will pause on interest rates this Tuesday, even though inflation doesn't appear to have been tamed quite yet. In an environment of a weakening dollar, gold usually does well. So here's a possible play. Any thoughts?

[Rob]

Cisco (CSCO)

Cisco (CSCO) reports earnings after the close today. It's estimated to report earnings of $0.28. Here's a look at its revenue & earnings history back to 2001:

I notice that the 17.50 Aug. puts were selling at 0.60 yesterday at the close and the calls at 0.55. Does anyone here play options straddles? I never have, but this looks like an opportunity. Any thoughts on that? Thanks.

[mrmarket]

Funny how earnings and revenues for CSCO are at an all time high yet their stock price is 20% of what it once was...

I have to like the stock at this price.

[Rob]

I have to like the stock at this price.

Here's the S&P opinion on CSCO:

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Highlights

* Following an estimated 15% rise in FY 06 (Jul.), we project revenues will advance 17% in FY 07, including a full fiscal year contribution from Scientific-Atlanta, which was acquired in February 2006. We expect the maturing switching and routing divisions to post high single digit growth. We believe the advanced technologies division could double, fueled by the new video systems segment.
* We look for the gross margin to widen modestly, to about 66% in FY 07, as cost saving efforts outweigh the impact of pricing pressures and a less favorable product mix. Product gross margins are being restricted, in our view, by a growing proportion of lower-margin advanced technology products.
* Reflecting anticipated higher sales volume, we forecast operating expenses declining as a percentage of sales. We forecast FY 07 operating EPS of $1.21, including $0.13 of projected stock option expense in accordance with the new FASB 123R mandate, versus the $0.94 that we estimate for FY 06.

Investment Rationale/Risk

* In our view, CSCO is maintaining its dominant market position in the large network routing and switching markets, while successfully positioning itself in attractive subsegments. We see the recent acquisition of Scientific-Atlanta as adding cable video integration solutions to CSCO's IP transport expertise, enabling an end-to-end video distribution offering.
* Risks to our opinion and target price include potential market share losses as peers increasingly target CSCO's dominant share and narrowing margins, due to intensifying pricing pressures.
* Our 12-month target price of $26 is based on a P/E of about 21X our $1.21 FY 07 operating EPS estimate, slightly below the peer mean. Using our five-year earnings growth rate projection of 13%, our target price reflects a forward P/E to growth (PEG) ratio of 1.6X, in line with the industry average. Our discounted cash flow model, assuming a weighted average cost of capital of 11.9% and terminal growth of free cash flow of 3%, indicates an intrinsic value of $26.

Analysis prepared by Ari Bensinger on May 15, 2006, when stock traded at $ 20.56.

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[Rob]

Home Builders

Those high-flying home builders of the early 2000s have now become a pretty weak industry group. Here is a list of residential home builders, sorted in descending order of market cap, along with a few other stats:

And here are what their one-year charts look like:

[New-born baby]

Tol

TOL taking a $1.10 shot to the gut in the premarket..

[DSteckler]

Mom!? Aunt Cindy!!?

[New-born baby]

Mom!? Aunt Cindy!!?

.
Relatives?!! lol

[billyjoe]

New-born,
I had no idea Bearnard was a woman. Guess the beard threw me off.

---------billyjoe

[peanuts]

Honestly I don't know if any of you are following these updates, but there are a couple of interesting stories surfacing here.

Got an update? Right now, I am getting interested in momentum stocks. There are a lot of quality companies getting beat down and I think it's about time I start fighting back. Thanks

[New-born baby]

Got an update? Right now, I am getting interested in momentum stocks. There are a lot of quality companies getting beat down and I think it's about time I start fighting back. Thanks

Post 'em, Peanuts! I'd like to see what you like, because I might like 'em too.

[peanuts]

Post 'em, Peanuts! I'd like to see what you like, because I might like 'em too.

NBB,

I doubt that you'll like these as I don't think any of them have an option chain. But, here's what I've been looking at so far:

RMIX
XWG
AEY
DDDC
USEG
ATW

Tell me what you think. Maybe we should move this away from Rob's thread. You can respond on my thread. And thanks for the avatar feedback

[Rob]

My limit order to buy n Aug. 35 IMCL puts (QCITG) was filled, so now my entire current position (avg. price 32 and change) is protected from the fallout of that lawsuit.

Edit: and of course, within seconds of posting that, IMCL starts hitting highs for the morning.

Sold 50% of those puts several days ago for almost 100% profit. Sold the remainder this morning for 314% profit.

Holding shares long for the time being. Too much value to sell here, IMO.

[Rob]

The Future of Air Travel

Excerpt from a 2016 news article:

"All passengers will be required to completely disrobe and submit to a full body cavity search prior to boarding. Their clothing will be stowed with their checked baggage, and they will travel nude."

On another page in the same paper:

"Google (GOOG) shares closed at $3,045.90, down $100.00 or 3.18%."