Rob's Lobs

[New-born baby]

Calling all the FA experts . . . Calling all the FA experts . . .

Rob, and all the FA experts who dwell in HUGEland:

What saith ya'll about AOB?

And COGO?

And Jiesen, you .ob expert you, any comments about CXTI.OB?

I'd like to know . . . I've got an inquiring mind . . . .

[Rob]

What do you think about this guy's comments?

It's obvious EBAY found fundamental support where this guy showed no technical support existed. At the time of that chart EBAY was already way oversold and a great buy for anyone who doesn't have time to babysit their portfolio during every minute the market is open. As it turns out, someone could have made a couple bucks shorting it, provided they covered near the bottom, but who can call bottoms with any regularity? Right now EBAY appears to be finding support at the simple 50-day, and I expect it to eventually head north to the low-to-mid 40s, barring any major, negative news events.

[peanuts]

Ebay

Rob, I found the following chart commentary back at the end of July, but I didn't want to post it right away. This is from a regular at stockcharts, a Dr. Joe, that seems to be pretty good at technical analysis. Anyway, I figured that I should maybe post this now as EBAY looks to be at a pivotal price point. What do you think about this guy's comments?

[Rob]

XRTX Update

Xyratex (XRTX) reports earnings after the bell today. It's a very risky play, because this thing's liable to move BIG time one way or the other. If it blasts off to the upside, it wouldn't surprise me to see it move up as much as 20-30% by around 10:00 tomorrow. The price in recent months has been under severe selling pressure and may well be far below its true value. The consensus is that they will report $0.51 earnings.

They blew the earnings estimate out of the water, reporting $0.60 (GAAP). Unfortunately it looks as though some traders were looking for a lot more than that. As a result no "blast off" occurred in either direction, but it is moving nicely to the upside this morning, just more slowly than I had hoped. At this point it looks like I may hang onto those Oct. 17.50 puts, and they may expire worthless. If the stock acts as I suspect it will, I should be able to turn a net profit on those Oct. 20.00 calls.

[Rob]

XRTX and Fibonacci #'s

Chart

XTRX

The range between $12.50 and $33.63 is $21.13 or 169.04%.

23.6% retracement: $28.64
38.2% retracement: $25.56
50.0% retracement: $23.07
61.8% retracement: $20.57
76.2% retracement: $17.53

XTRX

The range between $33.63 and $17.56 is ($16.07) or -47.78%.

23.6% retracement: $21.35
38.2% retracement: $23.70
50.0% retracement: $25.60
61.8% retracement: $27.49
76.2% retracement: $29.81

On the first retracement, note how close it came to the 76.2% number—within 3 cents.

If that turns out to be the bottom, then according to Fibonacci theory, the numbers in the 2nd group should be the near-term resistance levels.

These numbers were generated using Rob's Handy Fibonacci Tool.

[Rob]

XRTX -- A Little Background Info In the Form of a Late News Story

Xyratex expands data storage operations in Asia

Posted : 13 Sep 2006
Xyratex, a spinoff in 1994 from IBM's data storage and manufacturing operations, has acquired Jastam Trading Co. Ltd of Tokyo, Japan, for about $1.5 million. Xyratex is a developer of enterprise and data storage process technology.


The new company, to be called Xyratex Japan Ltd, is expected to provide about $1.5 million in revenues per quarter. This new subsidiary supports Xyratex's strategy to expand its storage infrastructure and storage and network systems into the Asia-Pacific market, said Xyratex. Former Jastam president and founder, Tamio Mori, will serve as general manager for Xyratex Japan Ltd.

Xyratex says the Japanese market is a driving force in the storage infrastructure industry, producing about 30 percent of global hard disk drive units, 50 percent of media units, 57 percent of substrate units and 55 percent of head units.

The aim is to combine Xyratex's expertise in high-volume disk drive test, servo writing and automated media cleaning, test and handling technologies with Jastam's experience as a regionally-based trading company in the region.

The new company will also provide sales and support for Xyratex's range of storage and network systems, including the RAID subsystems.

Satoru Doi, director of sales and marketing, will lead Xyratex's Storage and Network Systems division in Japan, building on the strong presence Xyratex has developed in the region. Current customers include NEC Corp., MIC Associates Inc. and Thymos TechnoLogic Corp.
- John Walko
EE Times Europe

[Rob]

XTRX Strangle

OK I've never played an options strangle before, so in this instance I'm just experimenting with it.

I only bought one contract of each. One Oct $20 call (TQRJD) @ 0.85 and one Oct $17.50 put (TQRVW) @ 1.00 on XRTX.

If it works out I'll do a little more experimentation before I start risking more serious bucks.

[Rob]

Xyratex (XRTX)

Friends, Romans, Countrymen,

Xyratex (XRTX) reports earnings after the bell today. It's a very risky play, because this thing's liable to move BIG time one way or the other. If it blasts off to the upside, it wouldn't surprise me to see it move up as much as 20-30% by around 10:00 tomorrow. The price in recent months has been under severe selling pressure and may well be far below its true value. The consensus is that they will report $0.51 earnings. I'm interested to see what transpires. I'm thinking of playing a strangle but haven't decided yet.

I'm firmly of the belief that digital storage is going to be a hot industry for the next year or more, and Xyratex looks like a good play in that space.

[spikefader]

Hi guys. IMCL is an interesting chart. My humble take is that it's vulnerable to fall to 10.00 support. I'll hold this short bias while ever it's below 35.47.

[New-born baby]

ImClone (IMCL) held up today better than I expected it to, which tells me these prices are already rock-bottom. I will continue to hold my unhedged long position. Looking forward to good pipeline news in the 4th quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, ImClone is cheap, even without a pipeline.

IMCL held up very, very nicely today. I think that perhaps we saw the bottom at $27.80. If you bought some LEAPs, you probably will do well. I left it alone. In any case, IMCL has put in a triple bottom and things are looking up as long as $27.80 holds.

[Rob]

IMCL Held Up Better Than I Expected

ImClone (IMCL) held up today better than I expected it to, which tells me these prices are already rock-bottom. I will continue to hold my unhedged long position. Looking forward to good pipeline news in the 4th quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, ImClone is cheap, even without a pipeline.

[Rob]

This thing could trade 30 million shares today.

Possible but not likely. My gut tells me the volume will be more in the 10-15 million range. My gut also tells me the price will likely end up close to where it is right now, near 28.

I think it would be a good day to buy out of the money leaps.

[New-born baby]

No. Yesterday would have been the time to do that. But yesterday no one knew exactly WHEN this judgment was forthcoming. (Well the judge's friends, family and acquaintances might have known.) This baby will bounce. The negative judgment had largely been priced in already, hence the recent drop from low 40s to current levels. If you short this one and make a couple of percent on it, take the money and run. That's my opinion.

Here it is an hour before the market opens and she's already traded through 1.2 million shares, as well as having bounced up to $28.22. This thing could trade 30 million shares today. Average daily volume is 1.88 million.

[Rob]

Remember when It's a Beautiful Day toured with The Soft Machine ? Maybe 1970-1971.

Billy, a search of the grey matter turns up a negative on that one, although that name, The Soft Machine, sounds vaguely familiar somehow.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
White Bird was a great song. Remember when It's a Beautiful Day toured with The Soft Machine ? Maybe 1970-1971.

--------------billyjoe