JBSS ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Halloween Trick or Treat

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    JBSS ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Halloween Trick or Treat

    Did you ever go to a bar to watch a football game and the game is really good and you get all excited? So you start drinking 1000’s of beers and you get all hammerhead sharked? Didn’t you wish you had some nuts to eat while you were pouring down that trania? No, I’m not nuts. Nuts are most excellent. High in protein, low in carbs. Peanuts, cashews. Pecans, pistachios, I’m getting hungry.

    Here is a quote from a reknowned plastic surgeon in South Florida who has an enormous bench press, “ Sports and nuts are like soap and water. I love to eat nuts on the weekends. By Monday morning my stool looks like a holiday nut roll. Nutritionally speaking the nut has it all..protein, essential oils, speaking of oil I have terrible ass oil today. I am not sure if it was the steak Quesadia, the buffalo wings with plenty of blue cheese , or the 35 vodka's and cranberries I had at the world series last night. One thing for sure it wasn't caused by the nuts... those babies passed through as pristene as newly fallen snow. So go out and make your colon happy and eat a bag of nuts.”

    Remember when Muhammed Ali fought Larry Holmes and he said Holmes’ head looked like a peanut?

    Today I bought JBSS (John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.) at 28.37. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 32.86. Here is why I like JBSS.

    First of all, I want to give credit where credit is due. Although JBSS has popped up on my database from time to time, our very own Lizzard King did bring it to the attention of all of the $$$MR. MARKET$$$ members only most recently. So kudos to the great Liz….go visit his website: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Lizard...Trading_Swamp/

    But this isn’t the only reason I like this stock. JBSS stock is up 294% in the last 12 months yet its PE is only 13.1. That’s really good value for such incredible price momentum.

    John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) processes, packages, markets and distributes shelled and in-shell nuts, sold under a variety of private labels and under the company's Evon's, Fisher, Snack 'N Serve Nut Bowl, Sunshine Country, Flavor Tree, and Texas Pride brand names. The company also markets and distributes, and in most cases manufactures or processes, a diverse product line of food and snack items, including peanut butter, candy and confections, natural snacks and trail mixes, sunflower seeds, corn snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack products.

    I’m not the only one that likes it. Officers and directors own 75% of the Class A common stock. The company expected sales and earnings growth to continue through the FY 04 first quarter. Recently, the company has focused on efficiency and cost control efforts allowed the company to capture an increasing portion of the gross margin that was generated by their recent sales increases, as selling and administrative expenses rose by only $2.3 million, while net sales increased by $65.3 million.

    Sales growth has really taken off for these guys. I expect them to do $500 million in sales in 2004 which will give them annual earnings of $2.59/share. Even with their super low PE of 13.1, this translates to a stock price of 33.93 which surpasses my target sale price.
    JBSS has been aggressively paying down debt. In fact, its debt is less than half of what it was 5 years ago while it has expanded its asset base. % Long Term Debt of Capitalization has shrunk from nearly 50% to around 19%. This has helped its return on assets grow to 7% and its Return on Equity move up to 13.6%. This compares to an industry ROE of only 7%.

    But the best news is its most recent news and that’s why I think this stock can be very hot.

    Sales jumped by more than 30 percent in the latest three months to $121.7 million from $93.1 million in the same period a year earlier. The company attributed the strong results to the increase in sales, and an improvement in gross margins to 18.5 percent from 11.9 percent.
    Here’s what Mr. Peanut had to say himself:

    "There is definitely a substantial increase in the consumption of
    nuts and products containing nuts as evidenced by our first quarter
    results and the consumption data that we receive from A.C. Nielsen,"
    noted Jasper B. Sanfilippo, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive
    Officer. "This initial quarter of fiscal 2004 should be the prelude to
    another successful year. However, the Company will not rest on its
    laurels. We will continue to meet the increasing consumer demand for
    nut products and continue to focus on benefiting from the message that
    the frequent consumption of nut products can deliver meaningful health
    benefits for consumers. As stated in our recent annual report, we will
    also explore the possibility of consolidating our operations in order
    to gain further processing efficiencies and to support the growth
    trend that the nut category has enjoyed," concluded Mr. Sanfilippo.

    Bong bong bong!! Whoooop! Whooop! Did you hear what he said? Consolidation?? I smell a takeover.

    JBSS P/E is 13.1 which is extremely low compared to the Industry PE of 24.5. Just getting its true PE value alone will probably double its stock price. Only one analyst is following this stock now (with a “buy” rating)…certainly when sales grow to $500 million, more will follow with similar ratings. Not that $$$MR. MARKET$$ listens to analysts who did not attend Wharton, but the rest of the world does seem to take notice when new recommendations are published.

    No, I’m not nuts but I think I’ll eat some more.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • titanomega1
    Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 54

    #2
    nuts u say

    Excellent analysis, I have one question. What ever happened to the red pistachios nuts? I can only find the white ones. I used to love to get my fingers and lips beet red. And why do some peanuts have one big one instead of two or three little ones.?

    u r huge I am in!
    "my elbows are hinges, my arms machines"

    Comment

    • jiesen
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 5319

      #3
      JBSS

      this is nuts! I'm in!

      Comment

      • minni17
        Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 65

        #4
        obscene

        We are long Dicks, PRX and NUTS

        cool

        minni

        Comment


        • #5
          JBSS

          Aren’t we going into the nuts season? Seems I’ve been going through many jars of peanuts lately and this time of year you see more of them being offered. Ernie, saw mention of the latest buy in Supertraders today. Liz says you’re his weight trainer. Eat enough nuts and you’ll need a weight trainer. hehe Recently read an article about nuts indicating they have a number of vitamins and good amino acids etc.
          Time to go to the watering hole eat some peanuts and have some fish.

          Comment

          • MEA_1956
            Senior Member
            • Oct 2003
            • 655

            #6
            MM loves this Nuts!!!!

            I'm Not Posistive but didn't J B S S Make the top five back in the spring time. In such I said MM was going to pick it at that time but he went for some other comp. At that time I threw it in to a portf. and it was selling @ $13.20 which today would make a nice profit of 113.71 %. I hope this pick fairs well and fast. MEA
            GO BIG RED!!!!!

            Comment

            • mrmarket
              Administrator
              • Sep 2003
              • 5971

              #7
              Re: MM loves this Nuts!!!!

              Originally posted by MEA_1956
              I'm Not Posistive but didn't J B S S Make the top five back in the spring time. In such I said MM was going to pick it at that time but he went for some other comp. At that time I threw it in to a portf. and it was selling @ $13.20 which today would make a nice profit of 113.71 %. I hope this pick fairs well and fast. MEA
              you are correct. In fact it made it twice last spring. Of course, if Yahoo didn't delete all of our messages, we'd have a much more accurate recollection.
              =============================

              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

              Comment

              • minni17
                Member
                • Sep 2003
                • 65

                #8
                nuts

                I heard on the news yesterday that the price of beef was going up dramatically. This was attributed to a huge increase in consumption by Americans. There is a fad diet phenomenom going around. Atkins dieters are encouraged to eat all the meat they want.They are also encouraged to eat nuts nuts and more nuts,
                There are millions of these meat and nut eating nuts. In my small work group of 30 people, I count 8 Atkins devotees and all of them regularly bring large containers of nuts to work with them. I bet Atkins is one of the reasons that the SanFillipo's aare selling so many nuts.
                I might look into pork belly futures too because these people also eat about a pound of bacon per day.

                Any one else out there seen an Atkins person smelling like bacon and holding their nuts?
                Minni

                Comment

                • RL
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 1215

                  #9
                  MINI LONG HOLDS

                  Hey Mini love your post thats something we can use a sense of humor Ray [rl]
                  Ray Long

                  Comment

                  • tx_damnyankee0
                    Junior Member
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 24

                    #10
                    Minni long holds

                    I agree with RL....you are so funny! Where in Buffalo are you located? I lived in Hamburg for awhile (really, really miss that place). My best friend owns a restaurant in Orchard Park.

                    Comment

                    • minni17
                      Member
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 65

                      #11
                      Buffalo

                      I am in Kenmore, which is immediately north of Buffalo but south of North Tonawanda. Orchard Park ( where Bills play is south of Buffalo).

                      There seems to be a large continguent of mister marketeers who are either in Western New York or who have lived here at one time or another.
                      Even the nighty Stenz lived here as a kid.

                      There must be somthing in the water that makes us great investors!

                      Minni

                      Comment

                      • Gatorper
                        No Posting allowed; invalid email
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 22

                        #12
                        Re: JBSS ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Halloween Trick or Trea

                        Originally posted by mrmarket

                        Today I bought JBSS (John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.) at 28.37. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 32.86. Here is why I like JBSS.

                        A little late to the nutty party... Picked it up @28.95. With the holidays around the corner, everyone will go NUTS putting them in brownies, fudges, cookies, etc. Don't forget nuts for all pro/college football games...
                        Why am I getting excited about JBSS, when I am allergic to all NUTS!?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          JBSS

                          Hope everyone does well with this one. I bought this 4-14-03 at $15.37 and sold 5-1-03 at $18.78. It was an easy 22% in 2 weeks. Kinda looks like I pulled the trigger a little fast now.

                          I am about to sell all my home builders for a huge profit (which I suggest here on Oct 1st). Starting to look for some buy opportunities but everything looks real extended. Hope everyone makes a bundle.

                          All the Best,
                          Rachel

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            JBSS

                            Hope everyone does well with this one. I bought this 4-14-03 at $15.37 and sold 5-1-03 at $18.78. It was an easy 22% in 2 weeks. Kinda looks like I pulled the trigger a little fast now.

                            I am about to sell all my home builders for a huge profit (which I suggest here on Oct 1st). Starting to look for some buy opportunities but everything looks real extended. Hope everyone makes a bundle.

                            All the Best,
                            Rachel

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Agreed

                              Excellent pick and in this case a psychology person (moi) agrees that it can be very healthy to "go nuts" with JBSS! Good luck to all.

                              Comment

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