Diogenes Decisions

[diogenes]

Went long ORB yesterday at $18.11.

Holding Period:
Approx. 3 weeks, or until stop is hit.

Stopped out of ORB sometime ago; thus taking a loss.

Edit:
Two interesting looking stocks:

KAI
IWOV

[diogenes]

Two interesting stocks:

Name-Stock Scouter Rating
SMP-7
AVT-8

Valueline- Timeliness was so-so on each of the stocks. However, the growth potential for each looks good.

I am putting off running correlation tests as the idea demands a bit more time to flesh out.

[ParkTwain]

That's a very interesting site Dio...I was reading about Min. Wage. In CA it is now $6.75hr. It will go to $7.50 on 1/1/07 and $8.00 1/1/08. Unfortunately, I believe that only hurts lower income workers and those on a fixed income as companies will raise prices to more than compensate for the additional labor costs....I don't know about anyone else...But I'm not planning on receiving an 11% raise in January...thx...Doug(IIC)

You've got to be kidding about your concern, you're talking about the land of the undocumented worker for 150+ years. I argue to friends that Calif's wealth to a great extent has been based on the historic availability of below-market labor.

[diogenes]

So another week has gone by. So we have some data to look at.
My ranking scheme uses past volatility from yahoo.
Now, I have been using a period of around one month, which seems to be fine for a week hold.
However, why not use one week's volatility to see how it works over a week?
So, using a week's volatility as a guide we get the following two:
PCCC
SMP

And a month's volatility gives us:

SMP
BDC.

[diogenes]

Savings Rate

Household saving at the current level… might be enough?

An abstract from this paper: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~scholz/Research/Optimality.pdf

“We solve each household's optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes, uninsurable earning and medical expenses, progressive taxation, government transfers, and pension and social security benefits. With optimal decision rules, we compare, household by household, wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample. We find, making use of household-specific earnings histories, that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross-sectional variation in wealth. Fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets, and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small.”

Linked on Marginal Revolution 9/10/06

[diogenes]

Some picks looking back over the past week:

RFMD
PCCC
HD

Of course the month look back still likes SMP.

[IIC]

You've got to be kidding about your concern, you're talking about the land of the undocumented worker for 150+ years. I argue to friends that Calif's wealth to a great extent has been based on the historic availability of below-market labor.

Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"

[Lyehopper]

Employers get no respect....

Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"

That's why I love purchasing Automated Machinery. You never have to "screw over low wage workers" again.... Come to think of it, CNC machinery has allowed me to cease "screwing over" some pretty highly paid workers too....

[diogenes]

From: Energy Economist: Petroleum Report - September 14, 2006

"Petroleum Report


If you were writing headlines this week they would start with "falling Prices" and be followed by something like this:

* Refineries back to normal operation
* Gasoline shortage in switch to ethanol fails to materialize
* Iranian oil interruption highly unlikely
* Petroleum stocks well above normal

None of the above could be considered anything but bearish and all of them are true. Actually, they have been true for months, but the market is finally realizing that is the case. Perception drives the market.

It is typical for refinery utilization to drop in September or October for Fall maintenance. Refiners often use the lower demand periods of Fall and early Spring to minimize the stocks they need to maintain supply to the end users while the plants are down. This year could see fewer refiners doing major maintenance because many Gulf refiners did extensive repair following the hurricanes, others had to reconfigure their refineries to produce the RBOB for blending with ethanol and the lower sulfur diesel. If this happens it could result in even lower margins for refiners.

For the next few months the year-over-year comparisons and even comparisons to the five year averages will tend to overstate the this year's activity. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 resulted in much lower than normal levels of refinery utilization. When looking at the data it might be better to emphasize stocks relative to the high end of the five year range."

[IIC]

Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"

I just looked at Salary.com...The median base pay for a blackjack dealer in Las Vegas is $14,294yr...$6.85hr...w/ bonuses it says $29,767...seems like a pretty hard job for that kinda dough to me.

Seems like a trade off in Nevada...Don't pay the majority much of anything and we won't make them pay State taxes. Although I'd imagine that a lot of workers end up giving much of their income back to the casinos anyway after hours.

Even Casino Host's median is only $47,000...although I'd imagine Dave's is up in the 99th percentile

[eliaskane]

Some picks looking back over the past week:

RFMD
PCCC
HD

PCCC is up more than 35% in one month, still going strong and near its high from the beginning of 2005. (My entry was $7.14). Any guesses on how much higher it's headed? Resistance around $12-13?

[diogenes]

PCCC is up more than 35% in one month, still going strong and near its high from the beginning of 2005. (My entry was $7.14). Any guesses on how much higher it's headed? Resistance around $12-13?

Wow, nice gain for you.

I do not consider resistance etc, so maybe one of the t.a. focused fellows have something to say about resistance etc?

[diogenes]

A couple of picks looking back over the week:

BEAS
AEOS

Over a month:

IIVI


Edit: This is not my normal scan.

[ParkTwain]

Vegas wages - the high and the low

There are many low-wage jobs in Vegas, to be sure. And there is a surplus of cheap labor to be found here. But plenty of hotel and casino jobs, those that are "customer facing" and driven by tips, are fought over and actually have waiting lists (valet at the Mirage). See this article about the recent controversy at the Wynn resort, where blackjack dealers can make $100k per year from all the tips. The company is now requiring that the dealers "share" 20% with their supervisors. The casinos don't understand that there are plenty of enterprises in other cities where the managers make less than those they supervise.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Sep-22-Fri-2006/business/9802481.html

This controversy is another sign that the consolidation of the casino business along the Strip is having ever more consequences. Imagine being a toilet paper sales rep trying to sell into the MGM Mirage corporation? They control about 40% of the rooms on the Strip. How many palms get greased to get that account?

When I first visited Vegas, I was impressed at how hard most of the hospitality-related workers are working. Just like what you find in Manhattan.

[ParkTwain]

PCCC - what gives?

This has historically been an iffy PC direct seller that was for a long time based in southern New Hampshire, though probably most of their operations happen elsewhere. That is not a great (i.e., high profit margin) business anymore. I think I read this month that they had acquired a particular firm that seems to have juice selling into large corporate accounts. But that "juice" can only go so far and so long given the nature of the business. I watched that chart develop, but I don't trust it given the underlying business. There is obviously something more to the story that I don't know about, or maybe the market thinks it knows something and is about to get its head handed to it.

Here is the article that I had read:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060727/20060727005235.html

They had acquired Amherst Technologies in October 2005, which has since juiced up their sales. But, I mean, they're a freaking PC wholesaler!