Diogenes Decisions

[diogenes]

Ok, now back to my normal weekly scan:

BDC
TWX
HVT
PCCC
XRX
RFMD

[diogenes]

This has historically been an iffy PC direct seller that was for a long time based in southern New Hampshire, though probably most of their operations happen elsewhere. That is not a great (i.e., high profit margin) business anymore. I think I read this month that they had acquired a particular firm that seems to have juice selling into large corporate accounts. But that "juice" can only go so far and so long given the nature of the business. I watched that chart develop, but I don't trust it given the underlying business. There is obviously something more to the story that I don't know about, or maybe the market thinks it knows something and is about to get its head handed to it.

(snip)

What I gather from Value Line and MarketGrader.com is that PCCC has some growth potential in the short term (more so VL on this part) and is taking in some Government Contracts.

[diogenes]

Short term screen says:

OTEX
TNB
AVX


Longer term screen says:

PCCC
MS
TWX.

Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?

[IIC]

Short term screen says:

OTEX
TNB
AVX


Longer term screen says:

PCCC
MS
TWX.

Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?

Like that OTEX dio...would be nice to see a power move through 18 and a gap fill...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?

Not really...But I heard about this FWIW...

http://fxmarketspace.com/

[diogenes]

I hope OTEX works out for you (as it would then work out for me, too).
As for the link, I am currently using Dealbook 360’s platform etc and at the moment long GBP/SEK…and this is outrageous and sadly kinda fun.

[IIC]

I hope OTEX works out for you (as it would then work out for me, too).
As for the link, I am currently using Dealbook 360’s platform etc and at the moment long GBP/SEK…and this is outrageous and sadly kinda fun.

I lost .19 on OTEX...but I'm still keeping it on watch and may buy again soon...thx...Doug

[diogenes]

I lost .19 on OTEX...but I'm still keeping it on watch and may buy again soon...thx...Doug

Not what I wanted to read, but I am sure you will make it up.

[diogenes]

A few picks for this week (actually more than expected) :

CY
GLYT
SR
TWX
RFMD

for a month:

TWB, CY,OTEX

From don's funds newsletter (free):

For more "Wall of Worry", I have included John Mauldin's latest newsletter "The Inflation of Expectations". We all know that the markets current rally is caused to some degree by the perception that the next move by the Fed will be to cut rates. John has something to say about that below:

" So why do we care about all the Fed speeches mentioned at the top of the letter? Because they are telling us that they will not cut rates if inflation does not come back into their comfort zone, EVEN IF UNEMPLOYMENT RISES".

"Those market participants looking for the Fed to come to the rescue in January or March are likely to be disappointed. Unless inflation slows more and faster than it looks like it will today, the Fed is on hold for some time, even as unemployment looks set to rise. Interestingly, because of the upward revisions, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, the lowest rate".

"This just doesn't have the feel of Goldilocks to me".

For the complete 10/06/06 newsletter by John Mauldin's Frontline Thoughts:

http://www.donsfunds.com/files/Mauldin_Inflation_of_Expectations100606.pdf

From Jason Kelly's website (http://www.jasonkelly.com/) weekly update:

The September employment report left the labor market looking fine and the odds of another interest rate hike low. However, strength in wages and salaries means that the odds of a rate cut are also low.

Econoday reported that "economic growth appears to be on a moderately healthy trend but it likely is going to be the middle to latter part of 2007 before interest rates might come down."

Jason Kelly is the author of “The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing,” which is a nice introduction to Fundamental Investing.
It should also be noted that he has a pdf sheet on his website for download that is a nice way to organize various stock picks.

[IIC]

Not what I wanted to read, but I am sure you will make it up.

Win some...Lose some...That's the way it goes...As long as I make more on the winners than I lose on the losers...I'm OK...Best, Doug

[ParkTwain]

OTEX's 3-year chart is replete with big gaps (I can see 10 by barely looking; only 2 of the 10 are gaps up). Very volatile stock on an intermediate basis.

[IIC]

OTEX trin' to fill the gap

[diogenes]

Short term:

NEWP
OMG
TNB
BW

And for a bit more time:

OMG
OTEX
TNB.

Just a thought:
FX markets appear to behave, in the short term, in vary narrow ways.
So far, with a play account, it has been interesting.

Here is a website with some nice fx data:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/

[diogenes]

For this week:

TWX
AEP
CP
SR

For a few weeks:

IFS
NEWP
AEP
AVT
MS

[diogenes]

List- Short Term:

Ticker-Implied Volatility [over 10 days]
KBALB-.21
CP-.24
BW-.32
SMP-.25
TWX-.088


Def: Implied Volatility at http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/iv.asp

Edit: Correlation for the above tickers with DIA over 1 year:

0.8365
0.6961
0.8670
0.5815
0.3310

See the below link for more info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation