Louetta's Lore

[Louetta]

Louetta,
Don't tell me you were Jugdish's girlfriend in Animal House.

------------billyjoe

I don't recall Jugdish having a girlfriend. Only that he sat in the BMOC house on rush day in the nerds corner.

[Rob]

Who and what are you including in the scope of fundamental investors.

Those who purchase stocks based on monetary valuation rather than on chart patterns.

I also think that a large portion of traders/investors are looking at both the fundamental and technical aspects of stocks and the markets in their decision making processes.

No doubt. My point is that if a stock has been in an extended downtrend, a person who relies solely on technical analysis will not buy it. The buy interest will result from fundamental analysis, and when enough buyers lay down their long bucks for the hitherto technically weak stock, then the downtrend can be interrupted and ultimately reversed. This scenario is so logical, I can't see how anyone would take issue with it.

[Louetta]

Those who purchase stocks based on monetary valuation rather than on chart patterns.

No doubt. My point is that if a stock has been in an extended downtrend, a person who relies solely on technical analysis will not buy it. The buy interest will result from fundamental analysis, and when enough buyers lay down their long bucks for the hitherto technically weak stock, then the downtrend can be interrupted and ultimately reversed. This scenario is so logical, I can't see how anyone would take issue with it.

Can't resist that. You could quibble I suppose that if the stock DID turn down again instead of continue up, that "enough" buyers hadn't come in regardless how many came in. But...

Lets consider LU, a company several of my Dad's buddys worked for. The stock went literally from 65 dollars to 65 cents. But on the way down it experienced several reversals. People, especially employees, figured when it got to, say, $35 from $65 that it was a really, really good buy so they got back in and the stock recovered some. But each time such a rally occurred the fall eventually resumed. Each time it headed back up you could argue that not "enough" buyers got in to reverse the trend permanently. But how do you know what enough is?

If you can't define "enough" methinks the argument is worthless since you can never know when to get in. (Of course you never CAN know......really.)

[Rob]

Louetta, it sounds as though you're trying to disagree with what I said (which is a little ironic considering this whole debate started when I spoke up in agreement with something you said). Nevertheless, I don't see where anything you wrote there stands in disagreement with anything I've said.

People must be misinterpreting what I'm saying. This is not uncommon; happens to me all the time.

[billyjoe]

I don't recall Jugdish having a girlfriend. Only that he sat in the BMOC house on rush day in the nerds corner.

Louetta,
Of course you are correct. Maybe Otter's Girlfriend? I hope not Neidermeyer or Greg Marmalard's.

-------------billyjoe

[DSteckler]

My point is that if a stock has been in an extended downtrend, a person who relies solely on technical analysis will not buy it.

Not so. Extended downtrends are perfect for day or swing trading with oscillating indicators.

[skiracer]

[quote=louetta12001;63061]Can't resist that. You could quibble I suppose that if the stock DID turn down again instead of continue up, that "enough" buyers hadn't come in regardless how many came in. But...

Lets consider LU, a company several of my Dad's buddys worked for. The stock went literally from 65 dollars to 65 cents. But on the way down it experienced several reversals. People, especially employees, figured when it got to, say, $35 from $65 that it was a really, really good buy so they got back in and the stock recovered some. But each time such a rally occurred the fall eventually resumed. Each time it headed back up you could argue that not "enough" buyers got in to reverse the trend permanently. But how do you know what enough is?

If you can't define "enough" methinks the argument is worthless since you can never know when to get in. (Of course you never CAN know......really.)[/quote]

Rob,
I wasn't taking issue in the sense that you are wrong. Only presenting another perspective. It's all about how one perceives it I think. I agree there is a point where the inherent value in a stock will start to shine through and people would say "Wow, that's cheap for that stock" and begin thinking of buying some at what they think is a true bargain. I buy value stocks (Dow 30) for our blue chip retirement portfolio like that whenever I see what I think is a bargain. That's in a stock but in entire markets it has to be alot different. Entire mentallities have to swing back another direction to reverse market trend. And when can you tell for sure if a bottom has been reached as people can still sell into any new shown strength. And I think that we are specifically talking about on the long side with your position.
On the other hand as a market trends down in todays markets you can have any number of hedge funds, institutional money, banking interests, and individual traders on the short side in what is a thriving short market as it trends downward. I really think that it is a combination of a number of factors in a subtlely changing mentallity that recognizes that the situation has gotten really cheap and it might be a good time to start acquiring some of this at these prices. At that point it usually is value, which although not seen on the charts, but is inherently tangible, that will shine through and drive accumulation to whatever degree it takes to change the direction. But it can't be just fundamental investors that drive the reversal either way. It has to be everyone with money and whatever motive and strategy they have to put into the markets that drive it. But that is just my perception of what I see which can only be taken for whatever it is worth.

[Louetta]

Louetta,
Of course you are correct. Maybe Otter's Girlfriend? I hope not Neidermeyer or Greg Marmalard's.

-------------billyjoe

How about Carmine's daughter. The one the guy met at the grocery checkout counter who came to the toga party in a dress and he delivered home in a shopping cart. She was cute I thought.

[peanuts]

Louetta, it sounds as though you're trying to disagree with what I said (which is a little ironic considering this whole debate started when I spoke up in agreement with something you said). Nevertheless, I don't see where anything you wrote there stands in disagreement with anything I've said.

People must be misinterpreting what I'm saying. This is not uncommon; happens to me all the time.

I think that I know what you are trying to say. You like black licorice more than you like red licorice. Am I reading this right?

[Rob]

Extended downtrends are perfect for day or swing trading with oscillating indicators.

That makes sense. I can accept that. However, it was you who said, "Buying when there's blood in the streets can lead to more blood-letting. You need some indicator to tell you that the worst is over and the bottom is in." So I assumed by the term "buying," you meant buying with a view to holding for longer than a swing- or day-trade.

As I previously stated, "I think it comes down to the individual's time horizon, which of course can vary greatly from one person to the next."

I think we're all pretty much on the same page, but, as Ski suggested, with different points of reference.

[Rob]

I think that I know what you are trying to say. You like black licorice more than you like red licorice. Am I reading this right?

I'm rather fond of both.

[studentofthemarket]

I have over 1,000 stock sites saved...I'm in the process of putting them in a list...only sites I think somebody might find of value...with an emphasis on Free sites.

...snippage...

.Doug

Hey Doug,

You happen to know the URL(and with 1k of bookmarks you should ) of a site that basicly aggregated the "hot topic stocks" for the various message boards etc.?

For the life of me I can't find that dang site again. I wanted to run my new FA system across that list. But I gotta have the list first. LOL

thanks,


student.

[peanuts]

I'm rather fond of both.

OK, you're right, you ARE often missunderstood

[Lyehopper]

How about Carmine's daughter. The one the guy met at the grocery checkout counter who came to the toga party in a dress and he delivered home in a shopping cart. She was cute I thought.

The one who had her bra stuffed with paper?.... Yeah she was right cute but she was what, 15 I think?.... HEY! the perfect age for Peanuts.... jejeje....errrrrrrr

[billyjoe]

How about Carmine's daughter. The one the guy met at the grocery checkout counter who came to the toga party in a dress and he delivered home in a shopping cart. She was cute I thought.

Louetta,
Wasn't Carmine (shopping cart) Dean Vernon Wormer's wife ?

------------billyjoe


Faber College : "Knowledge is Good"