Louetta's Lore

[DSteckler]

Just as an academic point the idea would be that everyone has already discovered those sectors and stocks ahead of you and there is no more money to go into them. Take natural gas. Hit a high of $15 or so last December. Presumably the gas stocks did to. You're heading into the heating season. How can you lose? Well you could as gas prices fell to $6 in months.

No, the gas stocks did not. The Utility - Gas Index peaked in October and was 11% lower on 12/30/05. And using a three-week lookback calculation, the group RS Rank peaked in late September and dropped sharply immediately thereafter.

[DSteckler]

Hear, hear! But I would add the caveat: when there are reasonably sound fundamental reasons for doing so.

Buying when there's blood in the streets can lead to more blood-letting. You need some indicator to tell you that the worst is over and the bottom is in. Paul Desmond's Dow Award-winning paper on 90-90 down days is a good start.

[Rob]

Buying when there's blood in the streets can lead to more blood-letting. You need some indicator to tell you that the worst is over and the bottom is in.

If everyone thought that way, a stock would never bottom. It would run straight down to zero. So there must be a significant number of investors who hold a different view and are willing to take a stake in a company when they perceive it to be really cheap, even if it's still in a technical downtrend. I think it comes down to the individual's time horizon, which of course can vary greatly from one person to the next.

[Louetta]

I've always said that group movement is very important...I don't really like IBD groups that much because except for the daily report they base movement on too long a time frame for me.

You might check out MG...Subscriptions are not cheap...But they do have some R/T stuff(Top 5 based on Mkt. Cap) and some delayed stuff based on %. But IBD's paid stuff is delayed anyway.

Check it out...not suggesting you pay for anything...but click HOME ...above left...Some good free info...Best, Doug(IIC)

http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp

That's a really cool site. I noticed that most of their short term indicators are bearish. Like 3-4 bars out of 5.

[IIC]

Natural Gas spot hit $15+ in December and the Nat gas stocks did move up after sliding way down... as Nat gas slid from the 14's in Oct. to the 11's...I got suckered into w/ NGAS myself in December...however, the price of NGAS was much higher in October than it ever reached in December...So I guess the point is that spot gas and gas stocks have an obvious correlation...But they do not move exactly in tandem...at least NGAS didn't...Doug

[IIC]

That's a really cool site. I noticed that most of their short term indicators are bearish. Like 3-4 bars out of 5.

I have over 1,000 stock sites saved...I'm in the process of putting them in a list...only sites I think somebody might find of value...with an emphasis on Free sites.

I wanted to add a little blurb on each site...But it is taking me forever...So I think I might just place maybe 5 a week...Thinking about it, that might be a good idea to keep people coming back to the site.

I had planned on putting them at http://IIC100.com I have delayed that site though because the market is not so hot...I'll wait till interest picks up in the markets. Also, if you read my thread, the IIC 100...while still kickin' the IBD 100's butt...it is not doing well...Only up 9% YTD vs IBD up 3%...So I'll wait a bit...Doug

[Louetta]

snip

.....Also, if you read my thread, the IIC 100...while still kickin' the IBD 100's butt...it is not doing well...Only up 9% YTD vs IBD up 3%...So I'll wait a bit...Doug

Don't be too hard on yourself. Poormans model is off 6.8% for the year. His selected mutual funds are up 4.5% for the year though. My recollection is he usually kicks butt seriously in the last quarter of the year. Part of the reason I keep saying I expect to piggyback off his stuff in a month or so. I think last year he gained 20-30% in the last quarter though that might have been 2004.

[skiracer]

Please return to the original photo. Much more appealling as an adult woman with some mystique. This last one brings to mind a young Haley Mills look alike in one of those Disney flicks when she was about 12 years old. She should be standing next to her pony.

[ParkTwain]

that's EASY for you to say, Jean-Claude Swishy! Where's your photo, messieur?

[ParkTwain]

If everyone thought that way, a stock would never bottom. It would run straight down to zero. So there must be a significant number of investors who hold a different view and are willing to take a stake in a company when they perceive it to be really cheap, even if it's still in a technical downtrend. I think it comes down to the individual's time horizon, which of course can vary greatly from one person to the next.

It's safer to wait until the unction of the sellers is spent. Yeah, that might mean that you see a bouncelet first.

[skiracer]

that's EASY for you to say, Jean-Claude Swishy! Where's your photo, messieur?

In my speedo's or a pair of baggies. I'm a good looking old dog but really not worthy of a photo. But I do enjoy a picture of a young and vivacious woman like that first picture if I had my druthers. Jean-Claude Swishy? Spare me please Park.

[ParkTwain]

smile, man, smile

[skiracer]

smile, man, smile

Actually I am smiling Park. I thought that there for a minute you had found me out.

[Louetta]

Please return to the original photo. Much more appealling as an adult woman with some mystique. This last one brings to mind a young Haley Mills look alike in one of those Disney flicks when she was about 12 years old. She should be standing next to her pony.

Here's a little more, ah, mystique. I want to keep this basic photo because I had a request for more eyes.

[DSteckler]

If everyone thought that way, a stock would never bottom.

Sure it would. Reread my post, Rob - what is needed is an indicator or pattern to alert you that the stock has exhibited bottoming action. Whether it's a bullish divergence between price and a technical indicator, or something like Paul Desmond's 90-90 indicator, there has to be some indication to distinguish between further selling (distribution) and an end to the selling (accumulation).