CAMH....worth watching

[Websman]

I am just so wrapped up in this CAMH thing I can hardly think straight.....Did I drink four beers or six?

It was more like a whole case.....lol

[riverbabe]

TWA study

Does this in any way hurt the validity of MTWA? Thanks.

Jim, I know you're looking for jblaze to answer your question. But, in the meantime I'm going to stick my neck out. I'm afraid the results of this prospective study of TWA in a group of patients which might benefit from this test showed that TWA didn't make a heck of a difference in predicting outcome of their cardiac disease. Sorry. river (not an MD, just a former researcher)

[jblaze71]

Jim,

This study does put a dent in the theory that MTWA works well to risk stratify patients. The problem with this study and most medical studies is that the patient population is relatively small, plus this pt population is very sick and therefore did not have a long life expectancy anyway. Plus this is only one study, from what I have read there are at least 4 positive studies. As long as the next 10 studies don't come out with negative results I think we will be OK. As long as CMS and the insurance companies are on board this will be OK. CAMH sales reps really need to push the product to the cardiologists for implementation. Plus anything the company can do to scare the general public that they could be at risk for dying without this test will increase usage.

[jblaze71]

Jim,

I went back and did a search on Pubmed. Of the latest 20 articles published, I could not find another abstract that was negative in regard to the MTWA test. In fact of the literature I have found, a negative MTWA test is 97.5% specific that a pt will not have a SCD event. The study that you wanted an opinion on was published in 2005 and should have already been factored into the stock price, probably right around the time it was sitting at .27. I really think that the research released tomorrow will be positive.

[Jim Smith]

Thanks Jblaze

I figured you would have a handle on this.

[Websman]

This drop in price today could be the buying opportunity I'm waiting for...

[jblaze71]

Jim,

I have just spoke with one of the cardiologists on staff and he has stated that MTWA has fallen somewhat out of favor with the masses of cardiologists. He did his fellowship at Duke and he stated that they do not believe in the predictive value of the test. He did admit that there are some groups of cardiologists who swear on the bible with this test. Granted the cardiologist I spoke with is not an electrophysiologist but is very bright nonetheless. My point to the reply is that I still think with the literature is out there that the stock could probablydouble or triple but another Microsoft is doubtful.

Blaze

[Jim Smith]

Report supports CAMH

right on Jblaze.....Also, I think HRT is going to make the equipment for CAMH thought CAMH won't admit it.....I think HRT is a good speculation here.

[Jim Smith]

Jblaze, any thoughts about today's events?

Looks like a bout of buy the rumor and sell the news

[jblaze71]

Jim,

Thinking of asking you the same question. I figure that most investors figured they would get a run up to the announcement because of the numerous effective studies previously and then be able to dump their shares after making a nice profit. The support line should be about $3. I still think this is a 1-2 year story. Nothing responds quickly in medicine and for CAMH to record increasing quarterly profit will probably be 1 year. I think you were right on at about $10 in probably 18-24 months. Just a thought.

[Jim Smith]

I think the ICD makers will help out

I think CAMH will get help in the marketing dept by MDT and STJ....Both of these companies are anxious to revive their ICD sales....I think this thing could ramp fairly quickly. $400 per test, that's good incentive for a cardiologist. How many salesman does MDT and STJ have? They're going to be pounding the pavement for CAMH starting right now. Free marketing, gotta love it.

I heard the CAMH's CEO said 1.2 million tests per year for the domestic market....that's $84M profit after cost of sales in sensor sales alone. It probably works out to $1 per share. Then, machine sales should be ramping to help out too. Peak earnings on 60 millon shares? Maybe $2.....Market PE of 17 gets you to $35 give or take?

[jblaze71]

Jim,

I do hope you are right because if this thing dips tomorrow I will double down to 4000 shares. I do think MED and STJ will help. The problem is you have no idea how annoying drug reps are now that they can't give out anything free except pens. HaHa. But in all seriousness, I still think it is a 1-2 year story. Even drugs that have no competition still usually take about 1 year to ramp sales, although after that it could ramp up rather quickly.

[Jim Smith]

Anyone buying CAMH today?

here's a pullback

[New-born baby]

here's a pullback

Just holding my own. I think this is about the bottom, though.

[Jim Smith]

I like this entry point

jblaze could be right....This might be a 2 year hold to collect the big pay day....but, I like this story.