Portfolio of the week - 2007

[Rob]

Rob's Pick for the Week of 8/6 (Week 32)

Gotta stick with IMCL long once again. One of these days, it will all make sense.

[spikefader]

Mighty congrats t' ye, New-Born! Nice win.

RL; I lift me mug o' rum t' ye and yer dartboard this week!

[spikefader]

This is what the Peanuts Steel Index looks like so far this year:

Thar be some fuzziness in that thar chart, Mr.Peanuts!

[IIC]

Congrats NBB, Ray and Sticky

[stenzrob]

Congrats to NBB, Ray and Sticky. Nicely done.
Please start me in $CA$H$ for the next week.

[peanuts]

Dear Mr. Rob, sir

NBB, Ray, and Sticky... awesome job guys

Rob, I've lost my way. I'm terrible at trading anymore, so I'm just going to do exactly the opposite that I would normally do, and see how that goes....

SHORT LQDT

Thank you very much, and keep up the great work.... lovin the write-ups

Spike.... first time I saw fuzzy steel..... looks like a buy order at the big blue fuzzy C and set a 2% stop.... the giant, Arcelor Mittal (MT), might not be a bad stock to choose out of the group.... thanks, Cap'n

[New-born baby]

Thanks, and Ca$$$$H money, please

Rob,
You are fantastic! "Gottasee the Baaabby!" lol

Start me off in Ca$$$$H money, please.

[Louetta]

Ca$h please.

[Rob]

Steel

Hey Peanuts, if thousands and thousands of bridges across the fruited plain are in for some structural upkeep, would this not be a decent little shot in the arm for the steel industry Maybe a nice little addition to the top line for several quarters

Which comapnies have historically been the biggest suppliers for this type of structural steel

[IIC]

I will pick CRNT long...IIC

[peanuts]

Steel

Hey Peanuts, if thousands and thousands of bridges across the fruited plain are in for some structural upkeep, would this not be a decent little shot in the arm for the steel industry

Yes. That is, if even more legislation is passed to improve our infrastructure. Back in 2005, Bush signed a huge $286 Billion bill to improve our nation's infrastructure. This bill was for 6 years of spending to improve and develop highways and bridges. MSNBC article. But states have the power to increase their own spending and allocation of funds to improve infrastructure as they see fit.

Maybe a nice little addition to the top line for several quarters

More than just several quarters, but it may take time for the contracts to begin to come into play on the top line. And then you have to think of the way the steel company will report the contracts / sales... Do they use the future revenue for expanding their credit? Do they put a time value on the backlog? Is the sale recorded when the contract is made, when they ship the steel, or when they receive payment?

To me, and in the eyes of history, the bottom line seems more important. The Steel Industry has suffered from past poor management of inventory. This can be a serious drag to the bottom line and balance sheet. Management skills and experience should be an area to focus when considering a long term investment in a steel company.

Which companies have historically been the biggest suppliers for this type of structural steel

Wheeling Pittsburgh Corp (WPSC) has a mill that makes corrogated steel sheeting, used for stabilizing the underbelly of cement bridge decking. They were recently purchased by Esmark, who also just bought the old Sparrow's Point plant in Baltimore.... I am expecting a rework of the public share structure, and a possible name change.

US Steel (X) and Arcelor-Mittal (MT) stand to benefit the most, in my opinon, from any increase in demand of large structural steel. NUCOR (NUE) and Gerdau-Ameristeel (GNA) stand to benefit the most, in my opinon, from any increase in demand of smaller structural steel and re-bar. All the others are just waiting to be bought by the bigger players.

Protecting this steel from oxidation once employed will be an important aspect to this build-up of infrastructure. Galvanizing the steel will be expensive. The price of zinc will continue to increase as supply inventory continues to decline:


Gerdau Ameristeel and NUCOR have added electro-galvanizing lines to their operations. North American Galvanizing (NGA) and AZZ Incorporated (AZZ) are pure-plays on galvanizing

[Rob]

Mr. P, thanks for sharing your insightful insights. I appreciate it.

To me, and in the eyes of history, the bottom line seems more important.

Of course the bottom line is everything. But it is, after all, a derivative of the top line. And that is why I worded the question the way I did. A company's poor management may not allow top line increases to translate to the bottom line, but management questions are different from my original one.

[Peter Hansen]

SKF Long

Skf Long Please Thanx

[Gatorman]

POTW Pick

Will take HAL long.

[spikefader]

MHJ long.