NFI - Oversold?? You betcha

[spikefader]

I still think it is to volatile to be able to rely on any wave count right now...

One could argue that impulsive price action is expressed through increased volatility.....perhaps increasing the reliability of wave counts.

It's been tracking a perfect bearish count since December....including the last 5 bearish days. The count calls for 2 up soon, and today's intraday price action forming an 'inside' day on the daily may be the catalyst for that impulsive 2 up. But frankly, the r/r isn't good enough to try and trade it. Long from current levels and stop under the inside day is over 5% risk....and 2 completion target of around $5.90 price resistance is 19%.....so r/r of 4. Some might think that's pretty good.

But is there any particular reason why the bearish count should suddenly terminate? And if not, then why not look to capture a short entry 2 completion to target 5 down? That's a lot better r/r.

[skiracer]

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

If it clears 7.50 range I would be ecstatic. Are you considering taking a position being that you are so enthusiastic on the stock? As I've said I like it to the long side but am not sure if it will go that way. Still watching closely.

[New-born baby]

2 red crows and indicision candle

Karel,
Yes, today's candle spells indicision in and of itself; but if you consider the two red crows in front of it, it spells bull tomorrow.

[Karel]

Frankly, anyone who buys a 1 down ......
SssSssSss

But I guess there are plenty of people who thing fuzzy counts are just plain dumb and not worth taking into consideration.

Fuzzy roadmap: [...]

Thanks Spike, nice to know there are people smarter than me I appreciate your comments, and I'll try to factor in your roadmap.

I still think it is to volitaile to be able to rely on any wave count right now. Some pretty wide swings today to end the day right in that area where I put my stop at 4.95. There's a big amount of buying volume right at that area as support and I think it closed right at that level because of that. I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow but I have a feeling that it goes up from here rather than down. I would be watching it real close at the open tomorrow morning but wouldn't be counting on anything. It could go either way. I still think it is pretty much oversold and like it to the long side rather than short from here.

Ski, I think I am mostly with you here, especially the "I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow" and the "I like it to the long side" part.

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

NBB, I don't agree about this being a done deal. I think the candle screams UNDECISION?! but I do agree with the buy. MM probably sold because he saw this more as a day trade, and then you don't hold your shares overnight.

My own plan is medium term right now: I am waiting for the first dividend, if any. I will take profits when they come my way, and buy back in when the opportunity arises (that is where a roadmap may come in handy). I am not betting the bank on this, and I have decided when to take a loss.

Thank you all!

Karel

[New-born baby]

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

[skiracer]

I still think it is to volitaile to be able to rely on any wave count right now. Some pretty wide swings today to end the day right in that area where I put my stop at 4.95. There's a big amount of buying volume right at that area as support and I think it closed right at that level because of that. I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow but I have a feeling that it goes up from here rather than down. I would be watching it real close at the open tomorrow morning but wouldn't be counting on anything. It could go either way. I still think it is pretty much oversold and like it to the long side rather than short from here.

[IIC]

I just got butchered...in at 5.32 and out at 5.02. I'll leave the day trading to the experts from now on, thank you very much

It happens...Not that I'm a daytrading expert...but I practiced on paper for over 6 months before I made my first (well, I had made a few here and there over the years) daytrade...I'm not a big advocate of paper trading because you always seem to do better on paper but I did it anyway...then when I felt ready I started out with smaller dollars and worked up as I got experience...However, I never worked up to the amounts I sometimes invest in longer holds.

But just remember...especially in daytrading...they're waiting to suck you in and spit you out...and sometimes they get away with it...But overall, I've found it is quite profitable percentage wise....Doug

[spikefader]

OK, who was smarter?

Frankly, anyone who buys a 1 down ......
SssSssSss

But I guess there are plenty of people who thing fuzzy counts are just plain dumb and not worth taking into consideration.

Fuzzy roadmap: Look for this 1 down to complete soon (to frustrate recent stopouts), then the 2 up (fer the nimble), 3 down (for the clever), 4 up (fer the patient), 5 down (fer the profit-takers) .... over the next 12 to 20 trading days.

[jiesen]

I felt that was a setup today by some hedge funds. Very volitaile stock right now and too dangerous.

this is all over the news right now, so everyone and their mother wants to play the subprime sector and make a quick buck. that could explain at least some of the volatility.

Why do you expect the fiasco to be limited to subprime loans? Can't any loans, even ones rated AAA double-plus good go into default if the borrower goes broke or just decides to quit making payments?

Saw an article today about how Harley-Davidson (HOG) is getting hit by loan defaults. I wanna' be the pencil-necked accountant that goes to tell the bikers they're late with their payments. Pay up, you deadbeats!

[Websman]

Oh...subprime is just the start...Next comes Alt-A.

You know who I think is a good short over the next two years?...WFC...They are at 34.68 now...You just wait...they bury these loans so far down in their financials that nobody ever sees them until it all comes out...Save this post and let me know where they stand on March 26, 2009.

I may just short this one with real money and let you know what happens.

[skiracer]

I just got butchered...in at 5.32 and out at 5.02. I'll leave the day trading to the experts from now on, thank you very much

I felt that was a setup today by some hedge funds. Very volitaile stock right now and too dangerous.

[mrmarket]

I just got butchered...in at 5.32 and out at 5.02. I'll leave the day trading to the experts from now on, thank you very much

[skiracer]

Wow, what a roller-coaster ride today. To voilatile for me to think about chasing it today after getting stopped out.

[skiracer]

All those wise words came too late for me. I went in almost at the open at 4.95, and am now in the black again

OK, who was smarter?

Regards,

Karel

You still have the money so you must be smarter Karel. It was a good entry but after this morning and looking at the chart right now I'm a little anxious. Since I started writing this it has gone up almost .12. Good luck Karel.