VIP ==> The Spring is Here Winner!

[New-born baby]

I know many of you have taken positions in VIP at levels higher than 98. I am rooting for Ernie and all of you that are in there long but this stock presented a great opportunity for a short setup today and it did exactly what I thought it would do. All sizeable uptrends eventually need to correct and they all do. VIP presented a great short opportunity today between 100 and 99 and it did just that. I shorted the stock this morning at 99 and covered at 96.75 on what at the moment looked to be a resurgence of the uptrend after the drop. Turns out that it wasn't done after all and closes at 96.31. If the stock breaks thru 96 tomorrow I like the short play to 90/92 levels. Sounds outlandish and almost unimaginable but so did 96 before the open today from yesterdays close at 99.59.
You can check out the chart at the link below.
In all honesty I like it to the long side on the longer term to go over 105 regardless of todays short play, but 113/115 in 4/6 weeks from these levels is asking alot from any stock.

I like your charts, Ski. Keep 'em coming.

Specifically, what caused you to short VIP? What signalled the short? An indicator, chart formation, etc?

[skiracer]

I know many of you have taken positions in VIP at levels higher than 98. I am rooting for Ernie and all of you that are in there long but this stock presented a great opportunity for a short setup today and it did exactly what I thought it would do. All sizeable uptrends eventually need to correct and they all do. VIP presented a great short opportunity today between 100 and 99 and it did just that. I shorted the stock this morning at 99 and covered at 96.75 on what at the moment looked to be a resurgence of the uptrend after the drop. Turns out that it wasn't done after all and closes at 96.31. If the stock breaks thru 96 tomorrow I like the short play to 90/92 levels. Sounds outlandish and almost unimaginable but so did 96 before the open today from yesterdays close at 99.59.
You can check out the chart at the link below.
In all honesty I like it to the long side on the longer term to go over 105 regardless of todays short play, but 113/115 in 4/6 weeks from these levels is asking alot from any stock.

[spikefader]

You're the best with digging in and getting those wave counts Spike. Nice chart. I would love to see it spike up into a strong 3rd wave here. I'm still holding the call and giving it some room to breathe. I think that 52 level is a psychological barrier for the call and that if the stock breaks through 52 and holds or moves higher the option will continue up with the stock price. Deep in the money now and still plenty of time value left in it. Hope you and yours have a great Easter today Spike. I'm breaking out a couple of bottles of nice Cabs this afternoon to go along with a leg of lamb and a nice lamb crown roast. Two of my favorites. Thanks, Ed.

Thanks Ski. Hope you and the fam had a great Easter, and hope the wine was better than you expected. BW acts just right today! Grats on the green t' you and River! Great t' see.

[riverbabe]

Spike, those are great charts! I'm in this one long at 49.88. Looking forward to that 3 up!

Ski, hope you enjoyed your lamb and CAB. You also would probably like the 16" of snow (with 24" drifts) in my yard. Now, if I only had "slopes" you could bring your skis instead of your snowshoes! River

[skiracer]

Added a chart to the BW thread that may interest. Seems t' me BW has got plenty o' fuel left in the tank! http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...opic.php?t=241

You're the best with digging in and getting those wave counts Spike. Nice chart. I would love to see it spike up into a strong 3rd wave here. I'm still holding the call and giving it some room to breathe. I think that 52 level is a psychological barrier for the call and that if the stock breaks through 52 and holds or moves higher the option will continue up with the stock price. Deep in the money now and still plenty of time value left in it. Hope you and yours have a great Easter today Spike. I'm breaking out a couple of bottles of nice Cabs this afternoon to go along with a leg of lamb and a nice lamb crown roast. Two of my favorites. Thanks, Ed.

[spikefader]

Added a chart to the BW thread that may interest. Seems t' me BW has got plenty o' fuel left in the tank! http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...opic.php?t=241

[New-born baby]

I took a look at that site. I am going to have to take some time to absorb and understand exactly what they are doing with their numbers but it looks like their method holds water.
I will be watching the call closely from here. The only thing about options is that they aren't as easy to unwind a position as stocks and it is easy to get stuck in a position. That's why I favor taking the money when it's in hand and being thankful for what I get out of it when I have it. Thanks NB.

If you have more than one option, another play would be to take half off the table, and let the other half run. My gut--you know, the 11 herbs and spices--tells me that BW won't run straight to $55 without some shakeout going on. In any case, I hope you'll do very well with your play here.

[skiracer]

Well this was a lucky play for me to start with. River brought it to the table and I thought the May 50 call looked like a decent bet to leverage a decent amount of stock with a small amount of cash. I've been patient and still like the trade and am still holdling it. Just trying to get another opinion. I was surprised Friday when it was up .83 at the high of the day and the call didn't make a move up at all and hardly any trades or any volume that day. I was disappointed in that but at least it didn't fall back any either. Just trying to get a concensus. Thanks NB.

I took a look at that site. I am going to have to take some time to absorb and understand exactly what they are doing with their numbers but it looks like their method holds water.
I will be watching the call closely from here. The only thing about options is that they aren't as easy to unwind a position as stocks and it is easy to get stuck in a position. That's why I favor taking the money when it's in hand and being thankful for what I get out of it when I have it. Thanks NB.

[New-born baby]

Well this was a lucky play for me to start with. River brought it to the table and I thought the May 50 call looked like a decent bet to leverage a decent amount of stock with a small amount of cash. I've been patient and still like the trade and am still holdling it. Just trying to get another opinion. I was surprised Friday when it was up .83 at the high of the day and the call didn't make a move up at all and hardly any trades or any volume that day. I was disappointed in that but at least it didn't fall back any either. Just trying to get a concensus. Thanks NB.

You are always welcome, Ski. I hope this thing comes out of the closet Monday screaming higher for you. That would make life easier.

[skiracer]

Ski,
I would think you are a better options trader than I. I am almost afraid to answer you because you might follow my advice, and wind up costing you some money. But here it is anyway:

My thinking is influenced by these factors:
(1) Earnings are coming April 26. April 24 & 25 may be down days for BW in preparation for that event. (2) And you also have the April 20 expiry date for the April calls/puts, and BW will settle at max pain for that date. I just checked the options list at YaHoo! Finance, and the $45 strike is max pain for April. May's MaxPain is $50. (3) Every other week has been a down week for BW in the last six weeks. One could possibly expect BW to pull back this week in keeping with that recent price action. (4) I trade best when I watch the streamer. I watch the price action via a 1 minute chart, and I watch for volume spikes up or down. As mentioned in my previous post, I expect BW to retest the $48-$50 marker.

Now there are the facts; you make the decision. My play would be to watch BW very carefully this week. If she starts to pull back, I am taking my chips off the table and looking to re-enter a straddle near the close on April 25. That's because a $200 profit in the hand is better than a $250 loss. Should BW have a good earnings, or even a bad one, the straddle enables you to profit. That event will tell the tale for BW for May.

Oh, you say you want more info on MaxPain? Sure, just click this link, Ski.

http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl

Now remember: I don't always make trading decisions based upon Max Pain Theory. I do expect a shaking South in the market in preparation for expiry, say April 16,17,18. Who knows? Not me, but I am guessing.

Well this was a lucky play for me to start with. River brought it to the table and I thought the May 50 call looked like a decent bet to leverage a decent amount of stock with a small amount of cash. I've been patient and still like the trade and am still holdling it. Just trying to get another opinion. I was surprised Friday when it was up .83 at the high of the day and the call didn't make a move up at all and hardly any trades or any volume that day. I was disappointed in that but at least it didn't fall back any either. Just trying to get a concensus. Thanks NB.

[New-born baby]

So I own the May 50 call from 2.50 entry with 41 days left to expiration. I like the stock to go to 55. Your 60 estimate would be great. Right now my call is in the money by almost 2 points what would you do with the trade?.

Ski,
I would think you are a better options trader than I. I am almost afraid to answer you because you might follow my advice, and wind up costing you some money. But here it is anyway:

My thinking is influenced by these factors:
(1) Earnings are coming April 26. April 24 & 25 may be down days for BW in preparation for that event. (2) And you also have the April 20 expiry date for the April calls/puts, and BW will settle at max pain for that date. I just checked the options list at YaHoo! Finance, and the $45 strike is max pain for April. May's MaxPain is $50. (3) Every other week has been a down week for BW in the last six weeks. One could possibly expect BW to pull back this week in keeping with that recent price action. (4) I trade best when I watch the streamer. I watch the price action via a 1 minute chart, and I watch for volume spikes up or down. As mentioned in my previous post, I expect BW to retest the $48-$50 marker.

Now there are the facts; you make the decision. My play would be to watch BW very carefully this week. If she starts to pull back, I am taking my chips off the table and looking to re-enter a straddle near the close on April 25. That's because a $200 profit in the hand is better than a $250 loss. Should BW have a good earnings, or even a bad one, the straddle enables you to profit. That event will tell the tale for BW for May.

Oh, you say you want more info on MaxPain? Sure, just click this link, Ski.

http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl

Now remember: I don't always make trading decisions based upon Max Pain Theory. I do expect a shaking South in the market in preparation for expiry, say April 16,17,18. Who knows? Not me, but I am guessing.

[skiracer]

Ski,
Let's see . . . PnF tell us that expected target of $48.50 has already been achieved. The weekly chart shows us, according to the Dow Theory, that BW should run to $60.50. Had a tremendous $15 gap up the second week of February. The option chain is not really all that strong. For example, the APR $50 strike is only $2.60, giving you $52.60 for a $51.96 stock right now. Furthermore, the option chain extends only to Sept 2007, so the option chain is very weak, in my view, if one is considering buying the stock and selling a covered call. The stock is really hot, so an entry should be carefully considered. Personally, if I took this one long, it would be at the (yet to happen) retest of the $48 breakout. 1st Target of $53.00; 2nd target $60.00. As for a stop, well I would simply sell calls to protect myself. Spike gives a much better count. Hey, Spike, where's the fuzzy C? I suspect you'll tell us it was at $42.50.

In summary, I think she'll make the $60 target if earnings don't disappoint.

It should be noted that the earnings call is due April 26. A May options straddle gives one an excellent chance to profit. That is the only way I'd play this one.

The straddle I would consider would be the May call and put, in the money at the strike applicable on April 25.

So I own the May 50 call from 2.50 entry with 41 days left to expiration. I like the stock to go to 55. Your 60 estimate would be great. Right now my call is in the money by almost 2 points what would you do with the trade?.

[New-born baby]

NBB,
Geez I wish I could be 99% on bear calls. I'd be rich. NBB, I was wondering if you had taken a look at the option play on BW. The stock that Riverbabe brought up from the Rev Shark. What are you thoughts on the initial play and where do you see BW going from here? Do you still think there is strength in the call?

Ski,
Let's see . . . PnF tell us that expected target of $48.50 has already been achieved. The weekly chart shows us, according to the Dow Theory, that BW should run to $60.50. Had a tremendous $15 gap up the second week of February. The option chain is not really all that strong. For example, the APR $50 strike is only $2.60, giving you $52.60 for a $51.96 stock right now. Furthermore, the option chain extends only to Sept 2007, so the option chain is very weak, in my view, if one is considering buying the stock and selling a covered call. The stock is really hot, so an entry should be carefully considered. Personally, if I took this one long, it would be at the (yet to happen) retest of the $48 breakout. 1st Target of $53.00; 2nd target $60.00. As for a stop, well I would simply sell calls to protect myself. Spike gives a much better count. Hey, Spike, where's the fuzzy C? I suspect you'll tell us it was at $42.50.

In summary, I think she'll make the $60 target if earnings don't disappoint.

It should be noted that the earnings call is due April 26. A May options straddle gives one an excellent chance to profit. That is the only way I'd play this one.

The straddle I would consider would be the May call and put, in the money at the strike applicable on April 25.

[skiracer]

Your math, Mr. BillyJoe, is defective because you multiplied the two numbers together. The correct formula is (X + Y) divided by the number of factors within the parenthesis. IN other words, you should have it like this: .85 + .85 divided by 2 = .85 chance of success. If you add me in there, and I am only .65 correct on bullish calls, then you would have .85 + .85 + .65 divided by 3, or 78.3% chance of success. Now if you put Skiracer in there, and he's 99% correct on bear calls, and he says VIP stinks up the joint from here on out, then the formula would be . . . . .85 + .85 + .65 + .01 divided by 4, or 58.7% chance VIP makes it to $113.00. Now if you add in Jimmy Eugene Cramer, and since he likes VIP long, and he's proven to be wrong 55% of the time, the formula would look like this: .85 + .85 + .65 + .01 + .45 divided by 5, and now MM has only a 56% chance of success.

Got it?

NBB,
Geez I wish I could be 99% on bear calls. I'd be rich. NBB, I was wondering if you had taken a look at the option play on BW. The stock that Riverbabe brought up from the Rev Shark. What are you thoughts on the initial play and where do you see BW going from here? Do you still think there is strength in the call?

[New-born baby]

It's all about EARNINGS

EARNINGS!!!! DUE OUT APRIL 12.

MM has finally chosen a stock with a real nice option chain. If you are skeered that VIP won't hold its own, you can sell a covered call and insure your investment. A real safe play would be to buy a put and buy a call (with the same expiry and strike), and when earnings come out, VIP should jump one way or another. You simply cover the losing position quickly, and enjoy!

In fact, I can almost guarantee that VIP will pullback on April 10 & 11 in preparation for earnings. Wait to buy your call near the close on April 11.

I just want to throw this up again so readers may prepare themselves for the sometimes volatile earnings report day.