VIP ==> The Spring is Here Winner!

[Karel]

VIP must have a great chance of going up 15% if both Mr.Market and Spike are in agreement, right? We know based on his last 100 or so picks that Mr.Market up to this date is correct about 85% of the time (probably higher if you can wait a while longer). Let's say just to simplify things that Spike is also correct 85% of the time. According to hypergeometric distribution , you'd multiply .85 X .85 giving a .723 chance of them reaching the 15% gain although we aren't considering a fixed time period. Unfortunately, I must have been sick the day hypergeometric distribution was explained at my school so all I know is what I can read off a google site. What has me puzzled is how if 2 great stock pickers such as Mr.Market and Spike agree on a stock, the odds of it being successful actually are reduced rather than increased at least on paper? Can any of you Einstein's out there explain it simply? Thanks

I didn't know about the hypergeometric distribution, but from what I read on it, it is a) unsuited for what you want to calculate, and b) not what you were calculating anyway.

The HD is for questions like: we have 90 white counters and 10 red ones. What is the chance that in a blind draw of 10 counters we draw 2 red ones?

What you calculated was the combined chance of two independent things to happen, for example the chance to throw anything but a six in two throws. The chance to throw anything but a six is 0.833 (5 in 6), the chance to do this two times in a row is (0.833 * 0.833 =) 0.694.

Now how would we calculate the chance of success for VIP, based on some predictions? I frankly have no idea. I like NBB's weighted average calculation, and I think it is about the best we can do. The problem however is that the predictions are unequal, by which I mean that they are not all formulated as anwers to the question "will VIP gain 15%, yes or no." Combining them (and calculating an average/mean) is therefore very difficult. To give an idea: someone may be 55% right in his bullish calls, but this does not imply that those 55% of his bullish calls reach a 15% gain. And some of the 45% were he was wrong might just reach 15% before the crash.

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

Don't forget the option chain--and don't forget about the . . .

EARNINGS!!!! DUE OUT APRIL 12.

MM has finally chosen a stock with a real nice option chain. If you are skeered that VIP won't hold its own, you can sell a covered call and insure your investment. A real safe play would be to buy a put and buy a call (with the same expiry and strike), and when earnings come out, VIP should jump one way or another. You simply cover the losing position quickly, and enjoy!

In fact, I can almost guarantee that VIP will pullback on April 10 & 11 in preparation for earnings. Wait to buy your call near the close on April 11.

[New-born baby]

Throw this into the mix Billyjoe. Ernie and Spike both like it and I don't want to put the horns on the trade for Ernie but I like it to the downside from here to around 90/92 levels. I would make the play if it broke thru 96.50. How does 2 to 1 change the dynamics of the success ratio? I was looking at it as a good short play for 90 range right here. Not saying it will never reach 113.62 but I can see 90/92 before 100 much less 113. The daily looks to me to be getting ready to roll-over from here for a bit.

I can't deny that VIP may retest support before reaching $100. After all, what stock runs straight up to $100 without a pullback, consolidation, or shakeout of the loose holders? But I would say that a return to the support at $95 is a buying opportunity.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
When I said "are there any Einstein's out there" I was thinking of you but didn't want to embarrass anybody so no names were mentioned. Thank you.
I'll tell you my prediction when the abacus comes back from the repair shop.
------------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Ski,
You're asking the wrong guy. Mr.Market says my math was faulty in figuring the odds that VIP will go up. I have even less of an idea how to figure the odds that it will decline. Any mathematicians out here?

-------------billyjoe

Your math, Mr. BillyJoe, is defective because you multiplied the two numbers together. The correct formula is (X + Y) divided by the number of factors within the parenthesis. IN other words, you should have it like this: .85 + .85 divided by 2 = .85 chance of success. If you add me in there, and I am only .65 correct on bullish calls, then you would have .85 + .85 + .65 divided by 3, or 78.3% chance of success. Now if you put Skiracer in there, and he's 99% correct on bear calls, and he says VIP stinks up the joint from here on out, then the formula would be . . . . .85 + .85 + .65 + .01 divided by 4, or 58.7% chance VIP makes it to $113.00. Now if you add in Jimmy Eugene Cramer, and since he likes VIP long, and he's proven to be wrong 55% of the time, the formula would look like this: .85 + .85 + .65 + .01 + .45 divided by 5, and now MM has only a 56% chance of success.

Got it?

Now Billy, what's your call?

[billyjoe]

Ski,
You're asking the wrong guy. Mr.Market says my math was faulty in figuring the odds that VIP will go up. I have even less of an idea how to figure the odds that it will decline. Any mathematicians out here?

-------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Well, that explains it !

--------billyjoe

Throw this into the mix Billyjoe. Ernie and Spike both like it and I don't want to put the horns on the trade for Ernie but I like it to the downside from here to around 90/92 levels. I would make the play if it broke thru 96.50. How does 2 to 1 change the dynamics of the success ratio? I was looking at it as a good short play for 90 range right here. Not saying it will never reach 113.62 but I can see 90/92 before 100 much less 113. The daily looks to me to be getting ready to roll-over from here for a bit.

[billyjoe]

Your math is not correct.

Well, that explains it !

--------billyjoe

[mrmarket]

VIP must have a great chance of going up 15% if both Mr.Market and Spike are in agreement, right? We know based on his last 100 or so picks that Mr.Market up to this date is correct about 85% of the time (probably higher if you can wait a while longer). Let's say just to simplify things that Spike is also correct 85% of the time. According to hypergeometric distribution , you'd multiply .85 X .85 giving a .723 chance of them reaching the 15% gain although we aren't considering a fixed time period. Unfortunately, I must have been sick the day hypergeometric distribution was explained at my school so all I know is what I can read off a google site. What has me puzzled is how if 2 great stock pickers such as Mr.Market and Spike agree on a stock, the odds of it being successful actually are reduced rather than increased at least on paper? Can any of you Einstein's out there explain it simply? Thanks

-------------billyjoe

Your math is not correct.

[billyjoe]

VIP must have a great chance of going up 15% if both Mr.Market and Spike are in agreement, right? We know based on his last 100 or so picks that Mr.Market up to this date is correct about 85% of the time (probably higher if you can wait a while longer). Let's say just to simplify things that Spike is also correct 85% of the time. According to hypergeometric distribution , you'd multiply .85 X .85 giving a .723 chance of them reaching the 15% gain although we aren't considering a fixed time period. Unfortunately, I must have been sick the day hypergeometric distribution was explained at my school so all I know is what I can read off a google site. What has me puzzled is how if 2 great stock pickers such as Mr.Market and Spike agree on a stock, the odds of it being successful actually are reduced rather than increased at least on paper? Can any of you Einstein's out there explain it simply? Thanks

-------------billyjoe

[spikefader]

VIP is my Scuttlebutt long pick for next week.....if that interests anyone stalkin' fer a long entry....

[IIC]

VIP...Good choice...Debuted on the IIC 100 on December 11th at a previous Friday close of $81.80...Currently # 17...I see $110+ soon...Good Luck...Doug(IIC)

[riverbabe]

If VIP Ukrainian telecom is as good as some of those beautiful Ukrainian Girls.........We are in like Flynn. LOL

Okay Petie, I was going to call you on this one (in like Flint!), but then I googled it and both are "acceptable."

http://www.mtannoyances.com/?p=675 (= "mother tongue annoyances")

Guess I'll just have to get over it. Aargh! River

[Karel]

Congrats, I hope this is the next winner!
Are your buy and target prices correct? Selling at 112.89 at your price of 98.8 would give you a 14.3% profit, not that there's anything wrong with that...

On his personal website, $$$Mr.Market$$$ gives his (rounded off) target as 113.6. I have (1.15 * 98.8 =) 113.62 as my sell target. And I was in at 98.15

Regards,

Karel

[Peter Hansen]

Mr M Now about that VIP

If VIP Ukrainian telecom is as good as some of those beautiful Ukrainian Girls.........We are in like Flynn. LOL