Pete's Money Makers

[Peter Hansen]

AFSI Short and sweet .......BUY IT !

Amtrust Financial AFSI Offers insurance coverage . Close 8/22/07 at $18.26 but is UNDERVALUED and its true worth is $24.86 , according to Vector Vest. Earnings Growth Rate is forecasted at 22 % per year . Earnings Yield is 6.41 and PE is 15.61. Sales growth is 76% per year and the chart looks good! Due to the Volatile nature of this stock Vector Vest does recommend an 18% TSL.

[Peter Hansen]

GW "Run with The Wolf"

Grey Wolf GW closed 6/22/07 at $8.60 and is UNDERVALUED and its true worth is $11.40 according to Vector Vest. GW provides onshore drilling services to the oil and gas industry . Operations are in South Texas, the Gulf Coast , the Arkansas-Louisiana-texas region, the Mississippi and Alabama region, and the Rocky Mountain region.
Earnings yield is 10.69, PE is 9.35 and the chart looks good.
Why I like it :

1) I own it and hope others will buy and jack the price up LOL. GW has been good to me and returned 26% in 40 days....and I believe still more Upside.
2) In 2002 revenue was 250M and in 2006 it was 706M
3) in 2006 the company was selling for 1.3 Billion and 140 million cash flow. the cash flow is huge
4) Currently GW has close to 121 drills rigs in operation.

5) GW has small and large customers but does NOT get more than 10% of its revenue from any ONE customer .

6) 70% of all new homes come with natural gas . Nobody wants a big oil tank in the ground and all the EPA problems that go with it ....spring a leak in your tank ....and U may be in for a 30,000 clean up bill !

7) natural gas is still low .....and as it rises ......so will GW!

The market for natural gas is big and getting bigger . Demand is high and supply is limited .....an investors "wet dream"

Bottom line .....I think money can be made here. I think a 10% TSL would be OK !

[riverbabe]

Gw

Hey Pete. I used to have GW. Found it probably the most boring stock I have ever owned. It just didn't go anywhere. Was even a Poorman's favorite for a while. Just looked at the chart and see that it has moved up nicely in the last couple of months. So, I'm happy somebody (like you) is finally making some money on it. I just didn't have the PATIENCE and guess I still don't. Good luck and all the best with it. River

[Peter Hansen]

River Yes Thanx

Hey Pete. I used to have GW. Found it probably the most boring stock I have ever owned. It just didn't go anywhere. Was even a Poorman's favorite for a while. Just looked at the chart and see that it has moved up nicely in the last couple of months. So, I'm happy somebody (like you) is finally making some money on it. I just didn't have the PATIENCE and guess I still don't. Good luck and all the best with it. River

River thanx for your input. I do have a 15% TSL on GW , but if the stock begins to falter ....I will take my money and run.

[Tatnic]

Grey Wolf GW closed 6/22/07 at $8.60 and is UNDERVALUED and its true worth is $11.40 according to Vector Vest. GW provides onshore drilling services to the oil and gas industry . Operations are in South Texas, the Gulf Coast , the Arkansas-Louisiana-texas region, the Mississippi and Alabama region, and the Rocky Mountain region.
Earnings yield is 10.69, PE is 9.35 and the chart looks good.
Why I like it :

1) I own it and hope others will buy and jack the price up LOL. GW has been good to me and returned 26% in 40 days....and I believe still more Upside.
2) In 2002 revenue was 250M and in 2006 it was 706M
3) in 2006 the company was selling for 1.3 Billion and 140 million cash flow. the cash flow is huge
4) Currently GW has close to 121 drills rigs in operation.

5) GW has small and large customers but does NOT get more than 10% of its revenue from any ONE customer .

6) 70% of all new homes come with natural gas . Nobody wants a big oil tank in the ground and all the EPA problems that go with it ....spring a leak in your tank ....and U may be in for a 30,000 clean up bill !

7) natural gas is still low .....and as it rises ......so will GW!

The market for natural gas is big and getting bigger . Demand is high and supply is limited .....an investors "wet dream"

Bottom line .....I think money can be made here. I think a 10% TSL would be OK !

you're pushing it pete....ie, #6. Tanks were buried in the old days but not any more. Most people with oil heat use a 275 steel tank that sits quitely in the basement, in plain site. But I do own GW and like the chart....its just one of many in its class but it happens to be in demand right now.

[mrmarket]

KTCC still doing research but looks good ..watch it !

It sure is cheap..but I'm not too crazy about its falling revenues.

[Peter Hansen]

Mr M Thanx

It sure is cheap..but I'm not too crazy about its falling revenues.

Mr M I fully concur , upon closer analysis of KTCC, I decided to pass on this one.

[Peter Hansen]

Tat

Tat I know that the technology has improved and that oil tanks have improved in quality. The newer homes in my area all have gas heat , and I like that better for the convenience . Oil deliveries can sometimes be a pain in the ass. I read in the paper awhile back a guy had his tank removed from the basement ; however, the outside pipe that led to the oil tank was never removed . Someone screwed up and he did have a flood of oil in his basement.
I did remember the clean up bill was huge .

[Tatnic]

News driven

...just noticed this up pretty strong in pre-market. Got an exclusive order agreement for some secret ingrediant from the orient....yada yada. Could be good for a bounce even with a lousy market back-drop.

[Peter Hansen]

Spil Undervalued Looks Good!

Siliconware ( SPIL ) 6/25/07 close at $11.01 but its current value should be $18.23 according to Vector Vest. SPIL provide semiconductor packaging and testing services including advanced leadframe and substrate packages and testing for logic, mixws signal and memory devices.
SPIL has a forecasted annual earnings growth rate of 29%, a pE of 14.12, and Earnings Yield of 7.09.SPIL pays an annual dividend of 25 cents or approximately 2.3%. It also has a sales growth of 63% per year. Needless to say .....I smell money to be made here ! The charts looks nice and SPIL seems to be bouncing off of its 20 day SMA!

[Peter Hansen]

FUR Warren Buffet Type Investment

Winthrop Realty Trust ( FUR ) close 6/27/07 $6.64 but it is UNDERVALUED and its true value should be $9.43 according to Vector Vest. Fur operates as an Investment Real Estate Trust .
FUR had some problems , but when Bruce Berkowitz , manager of the Fairholme Capital Hedge Fund ) joined in 2000 things began to change for the better. Winthrop realty began to generate POSITIVE cash flow in 2004, when a brand new management team took over on 1/1/04. Fairholme owns about 6% of all FUR outstanding shares and other executives and board members own about 31%. ( I love to see companies where the owners have a sizeable interest in the company )
FUR has a Warren Buffet type of philosophy , and basically it buys properties that are selling cheap, primarily because they are not doing well. Then it uses its expertise to turn property from a money loser into a money maker. When the new management took over in 2004, the company owned 2 properties taotaling 650,000 square feet, today it owns 8.2 million square feet of properties, with some big name tenants which include Verizon, Duke energy , just to name 2. Several of their properties have sweet heart leases in which the tenant pays for real estate taxes, building insurance and all maintance of the building.
The Chart Below gives you some indication of their fundamentals:

Winthrop Realty Trust: growing assets, cash flows, shareholders equity, and dividends
(Millions of dollars, except per share amounts)


2003
2004
2005
2006

Net Cash Flow from Operations
-$3.7
$3.9
$15.9
$27.7

Total Assets
146.8
290.0
658.8
851.6

Shareholder Equity
96.7
120.1
159.6
323.6

Total Dividends to Common Shares
--
--
$3.9
$16.0

Dividends per Share
--
--
$0.11
$.30


Bottom line ....with good management , good financials FUR looks to be a long term growth investment .....NOW may be the time to add FUR to your portfolio.

[Tatnic]

Tat I know that the technology has improved and that oil tanks have improved in quality. The newer homes in my area all have gas heat , and I like that better for the convenience . Oil deliveries can sometimes be a pain in the ass. I read in the paper awhile back a guy had his tank removed from the basement ; however, the outside pipe that led to the oil tank was never removed . Someone screwed up and he did have a flood of oil in his basement.
I did remember the clean up bill was huge .

But you never see any homes exploding because of an oil leak...didn't I just read about an entire brownstone in Manhattan being leveled because of a gas explosion? I've always had oil heat and never had any problems. But that's not gonna affect the price of GW stock.

[billyjoe]

AAPL looks very good to at least $120

Newborn,
Awesome prediction. I'm completely out @120.35. Gain of 36%. May get back in when i-phone hoopla settles. Thanks

-------------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Newborn,
Awesome prediction. I'm completely out @120.35. Gain of 36%. May get back in when i-phone hoopla settles. Thanks

-------------billyjoe

Mucho congrats to you, BillyJoe.

[spikefader]

... I'm completely out @120.35. Gain of 36% ...
-------------billyjoe

Grats on th' green!

Using yearly candlesticks, she looks like she's late in a 3 up. Using monthly candlesticks looks late in a 3 up. The 100 to 104 zone sure will be tempting. That would be a 13-20% discount billyjoe; worth lookin' fer?

I think the bias remains long, although the rating has dropped to +40.