Pete's Money Makers

[skiracer]

smart move on your part billyjoe. take the money and run. very volitaile right now especially with things almost totally dependent on how well the new phone is received. would you pay $600 for a phone and another 60 a month to run it. plenty of room for those in under this level to take the money and run. take a look at the weekly chart and you'll see just how much profit taking is there between this level and this most recent climb. i bought the Aug. $110 puts (QAATB) this morning. i think it falls back to under $100 on any negative news regarding the new phone. how many of these phones do you think they are going to have to sell to prop up a stock price at this level and higher. and at this point who would pay $120 plus for this stock. it just stalled out at the $127 level and that's a 7 point drop to todays closing.

[spikefader]

smart move on your part billyjoe. take the money and run. very volitaile right now especially with things almost totally dependent on how well the new phone is received. would you pay $600 for a phone and another 60 a month to run it. plenty of room for those in under this level to take the money and run. take a look at the weekly chart and you'll see just how much profit taking is there between this level and this most recent climb. i bought the Aug. $110 puts (QAATB) this morning. i think it falls back to under $100 on any negative news regarding the new phone. how many of these phones do you think they are going to have to sell to prop up a stock price at this level and higher. and at this point who would pay $120 plus for this stock. it just stalled out at the $127 level and that's a 7 point drop to todays closing.

Reckon ya got a very good chance o' those puts rewarding, ski. Fuzzy count http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...hp?p=2711#2711

[skiracer]

Reckon ya got a very good chance o' those puts rewarding, ski. Fuzzy count http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebu...hp?p=2711#2711

somewhat expensive put but i like the spot and the amount of shares i have leveraged. we'll see but everytime i open my mouth about one of my plays it almost always goes the other way. i would take a few points drop and get out with a few bucks.

[New-born baby]

I like the $120 AUG puts better . . . but I like the $110 calls (sell 'em!) best. That's a $15.90 selling price . . . meaning that if AAPL is less than $125.90 on the third Friday in August, you win. I think AAPL may bottom at $105, although from a strictly technical view it may bottom in the upper $90's. However I think the stock is too bullish to go that low. In any case, I wish you well Ski. I am going to play AAPL short, too.

Thanks for the post, Spike. I like it when you count!

[Peter Hansen]

TAT Case was discussed in NY Post

[QUOTE=Tatnic;83822]But you never see any homes exploding because of an oil leak...didn't I just read about an entire brownstone in Manhattan being leveled because of a gas explosion? I've always had oil heat and never had any problems. But that's not gonna affect the price of GW stock.[/Q

Tat the brownstown you refer to in Manhatten was owned by a doctor who was in a messy divorce.....he was worried that he would lose the brownstone in divorce proceedings. Apparently he turned on the gas and blew himself and the building to hell.......the GAS company cant be rsponsible for assholes like that LOL!

[Peter Hansen]

LLL "Bombs Away"

L3 Communications Hldgs , Inc. ( LLL ) is a high defense spending world wide corporation. It closed 6/28/08 at $96.71 whic is UNDERVALUED compared to its real value of $134.11 , according to Vector Vest.
LLL has as its customers the Dept Of Defgense, Homeland Security, U.S. Intelligence Agencies , NASA, aerospace firms, and commercial telecommunications and wireless customers. A basic premise of LLL is to be in every facet of defense dealing with security and surveillance, and as such has become the Pentagon's 9th largest contractor. It has done so by buying every piece of intelligence from the 80 companies it has acquired. The companies it acquired specialized in telemetry, X-Ray Technology , explosion detecting, ground radar and magnetic imagery.

Other Salient Points.

1) Current annual cash flow EXCEEDS 1 BILLION
2) Since inception annual growth rate of 38%
3) Contracts in place for over 1500 new projects.
4) A back log of orders currently at 7.9 BILLION , a 900 million increase over last year. ( Wait for the effects of that near bombing in Lodon ...orders will pour in as Europe panics. )
5) Just landed a contract to outfit Beijing Airport with explosion detectors and definitely in the "Sweet Spot" to land contracts for the 100 Billion China will spend to beef up security and communications for the 08 Olympics.

Fundamentals..... Just look below ......Real sweet!




10-Yr Income
L-3 Communications Holdings LLL


Income Statement As originally reported

Revenue (from 1997 to 2006) $Mil Fiscal year-end: December




1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TTM
Revenue --- 1,037.1 1,405.5 1,910.1 2,347.4 4,011.2 5,061.6 6,897.0 9,444.7 12,476.9 12,872.8
COGS --- 936.7 1,255.0 --- --- 3,408.4 4,290.2 5,935.6 8,215.5 11,197.8 11,622.2



Gross Profit --- 100.4 150.5 --- --- 602.9 771.4 961.4 1,229.2 1,279.1 1,250.6

Operating Expenses $Mil
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TTM
SG&A --- --- --- --- --- 114.1 137.6 141.6 166.8 --- ---
R&D --- --- --- --- --- 34.8 52.8 71.2 65.7 --- (18.2)
Other --- (NaN) 0.0 1,687.3 2,072.1 (NaN) 0.0 (NaN) NaN 168.2 120.2



Operating Income --- 100.4 150.5 222.7 275.3 454.0 581.0 748.6 996.7 1,110.9 1,148.6

Other Income and Expense $Mil
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TTM
Net Int Inc & Other --- (46.9) (55.1) (88.6) (89.1) (123. (147.2) (151.9) (208.4) (286.3) (288.6)



Earnings Before Taxes --- 53.5 95.4 134.1 186.2 330.2 433.8 596.7 788.3 824.6 860.0
Income Taxes --- 20.9 36.7 51.4 70.8 117.9 156.2 214.8 279.8 298.5 310.7



Earnings After Taxes --- 32.6 58.7 82.7 115.5 212.3 277.6 381.9 508.5 526.1 549.3
Acctg Changes --- --- --- --- --- (24.4) --- --- --- --- ---
Disc Operations --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Ext Items --- --- --- --- --- (9.9) --- --- --- --- ---



Net Income --- 32.6 58.7 82.7 115.5 178.1 277.6 381.9 508.5 526.1 549.3
Diluted EPS, Cont Ops$ --- 0.63 0.88 1.19 1.48 2.29 2.71 3.33 4.20 4.22 4.38
Diluted EPS$ --- 0.63 0.88 1.19 1.48 1.93 2.71 3.33 4.20 4.22 4.38
Shares --- 51 67 69 85 97 106 117 121 124 125

While doing research at Ameritrade I discovered that LLL filed a K-8 disclosure with the SEC on 8/21/06, indicating that the CEO will take home 9.8 million and other Executives will take home 1-2.5 times their annual salary if there is a change in company ownership.......DEFINITELY a signal that a BUYOUT is coming down the road.
This company is DEFINITELY worth looking into!
LLL is definitely a prize plum ......and other bigger companies will snap it up !

[riverbabe]

Is this good enough?

Pete, you asked for more eye candy?

[Tatnic]

Newborn,
Awesome prediction. I'm completely out @120.35. Gain of 36%. May get back in when i-phone hoopla settles. Thanks

-------------billyjoe

Good trade....I see the line in the sand at 117.5 (closing basis).

Or it needs to make a new high (close over 125), then its a new ball game.

[Tatnic]

Good trade....I see the line in the sand at 117.5 (closing basis).

Or it needs to make a new high (close over 125), then its a new ball game.

should have read a close above 125.09 is a new ballgame.

[Tatnic]

somewhat expensive put but i like the spot and the amount of shares i have leveraged. we'll see but everytime i open my mouth about one of my plays it almost always goes the other way. i would take a few points drop and get out with a few bucks.

ski...I'm sure this won't be your first loss, and you could pull this one out if the market shits the bed next week, but why did/do you think aapl was destined to top out here?

[riverbabe]

Quote:
Originally Posted by skiracer
somewhat expensive put but i like the spot and the amount of shares i have leveraged. we'll see but everytime i open my mouth about one of my plays it almost always goes the other way. i would take a few points drop and get out with a few bucks.

ski...I'm sure this won't be your first loss, and you could pull this one out if the market shits the bed next week, but why did/do you think aapl was destined to top out here?

Ski, FWIW I think his sharkness is seeing what you're seeing?

"We were stopped out of our AAPL trade yesterday. The stock did bounce back today and may still see the window dressing and iPhone action we anticipated but it will be a day trade at this point. We would be very hesitant to stay in this name once the iPhone hype cools off next week."

[Peter Hansen]

RIVER A Big THANK YOU!

River yes I did ask for some " EYE Candy " But wow,,,,, you gave me the whole candystore ......What a great photo........... I really think it would be impossible for you to take a bad picture LOL

[skiracer]

ski...I'm sure this won't be your first loss, and you could pull this one out if the market shits the bed next week, but why did/do you think aapl was destined to top out here?

Tatnic,
in all honesty i don't think the new phone is going to be that strong to drive sales and earnings enough to provide the impetus for the hedge funds and institutional money to flood into this stock at these recent prices and levels. maybe the retail guys will be fooled but the institutions will be selling into their buying as they take their profits from the 90 levels. take a look at the daily chart and you can see the money in under these levels and the room for profit taking. friday was a pretty good example of the momo players at work during the morning into the mid afternoon and then the swoon back as they took their profits selling into any strength at the end of the day.
it topped out at 127 back in the beginning of june and and that was the real point to short or buy puts as it fell back to 115 range. that was followed by a decent gap up to 125 and it couldn't hold that level either as it pulled back from that point to fill the previous gap up. actually there is a small symetrical triangle forming, which in itself is bullish, from that gap up until the present but the candles are showing me that the strength is just not there at these prices.
it is also sitting right on it's 20 ema which it has been riding throughout this entire uptrend. if it breaches the 20 ema the 50 ma is at 112. there is plenty of room for profit taking. take a look at spikes chart on it. it's at the end of the 3rd wave up and the 4th wave could take it to the 50 ma. another thing is that the PSAR, except for a couple of brief moments, has been on the bottom throughout this entire uptrend since back in mid april. that's bearish.
i bought the puts at the 3 range and am down about .16 or so right now. my gut is telling me it is ripe for a fall and the puts were the cheapest way for me to leverage the most shares. also the markets could play havoc with it if they tank at all which i feel they are due for a correction of sorts. any move down with the markets or some disturbing news about the new phone will provide what i am looking for and i'm not looking to get rich but only to take a few bucks out of it.
one other thing. you're a smart guy. are you rushing out to buy the stock or the call options at these prices. i always ask myself that question first. I'm not and wouldn't so i like it the other way. i'm holding 15 contracts at 3.

[Tatnic]

could be a screwy week...futures up this am but we're still in that doji phase.

Tatnic,
in all honesty i don't think the new phone is going to be that strong to drive sales and earnings enough to provide the impetus for the hedge funds and institutional money to flood into this stock at these recent prices and levels. maybe the retail guys will be fooled but the institutions will be selling into their buying as they take their profits from the 90 levels. take a look at the daily chart and you can see the money in under these levels and the room for profit taking. friday was a pretty good example of the momo players at work during the morning into the mid afternoon and then the swoon back as they took their profits selling into any strength at the end of the day.
it topped out at 127 back in the beginning of june and and that was the real point to short or buy puts as it fell back to 115 range. that was followed by a decent gap up to 125 and it couldn't hold that level either as it pulled back from that point to fill the previous gap up. actually there is a small symetrical triangle forming, which in itself is bullish, from that gap up until the present but the candles are showing me that the strength is just not there at these prices.
it is also sitting right on it's 20 ema which it has been riding throughout this entire uptrend. if it breaches the 20 ema the 50 ma is at 112. there is plenty of room for profit taking. take a look at spikes chart on it. it's at the end of the 3rd wave up and the 4th wave could take it to the 50 ma. another thing is that the PSAR, except for a couple of brief moments, has been on the bottom throughout this entire uptrend since back in mid april. that's bearish.
i bought the puts at the 3 range and am down about .16 or so right now. my gut is telling me it is ripe for a fall and the puts were the cheapest way for me to leverage the most shares. also the markets could play havoc with it if they tank at all which i feel they are due for a correction of sorts. any move down with the markets or some disturbing news about the new phone will provide what i am looking for and i'm not looking to get rich but only to take a few bucks out of it.
one other thing. you're a smart guy. are you rushing out to buy the stock or the call options at these prices. i always ask myself that question first. I'm not and wouldn't so i like it the other way. i'm holding 15 contracts at 3.

[Peter Hansen]

ENA & KTCC "High Probability Trades"

KTCC and ENA were selected by my "Stock Signal Pro " stock selection program ,and as such one or both of these picks should be profitable for the short term. Since they are both high spec stocks....the program recommends going LONG ENA @ 6.75 and then setting a STOP at $6.45, Go LONG KTCC @ $5.10 placing your stop loss at $5.00. The author of the program always recommends placing many eggs in one basket ......but ALWAYS have a tight stop on that basket.