Pete's Money Makers

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  • Peter Hansen
    Banned
    • Jul 2005
    • 3968

    Help on this one MNAP.OB

    Received this mailing ,generally not fond of OTCBB stocks or pink sheets .....ANY OPINIONS ON THIS STOCK?



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    Manas Petroleum (MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY ER
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    MANAS PETROLEUM CORP (OTCBB: MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY EQUITY RESEARCH


    ORIGINAL ALERT INFO :
    ALERT DATE & PRICE: APR 23rd, 2007 / $3.60
    ALERT EMAIL: CLICK HERE
    CURRENT PRICE: $5.15
    CURRENT % ROI: +43%
    COMPANY CONTACT INFO:
    Manas Petroleum Corp.
    Bahnhofstr. 9, P.O. Box 155
    CH-6341 Baar
    Switzerland
    Phone: (41) 144-718-1030
    Fax: (41) 144-718-1039
    Email: [email protected]
    Web: www.manaspetroleum.com

    INVESTOR RELATIONS INFO:
    Tatjana Rosenast
    Phone: (41) 144-718- 1032
    Email: [email protected]
    This weekend I was planning on writing an in-depth piece on Manas about the recent pullback in the stock. Then I ran across this great write-up on Manas by Equity Research and I feel it's just best to send the complete article out to our members instead. They do a great job on sizing up the entire situation. Here you go:

    -------------------------------

    Manas Petroleum Corp. buying opportunity

    Only two weeks ago we discussed the fall of InterOil Corp. as the company's thousands of put options (if converted they would total well over 7 millions shares) combined with an attack by short-selling hedge funds and mildly-dissappointing drill results, triggered an avalanche of selling of interOIl shares. On its second day one of America's leading analysts (at Raymond James Financial), said IOC's shares had fallen too far. By the fourth following what totalled a 58% plunge they issued a strong buy with a price target nearly 250% higher than the IOC share crash low.

    MANAS GETS MUGGED
    Now it is Manas Petroleum's Corp. (OTCBB: MNAP) turn to tumble. The only similarity is that they share some of the same financiers as InterOil (Clarion Finanz) and they appear to also be the victim of a short attack, judging from the tenor and source of the selling. Manas has a relatively illiquid market and most of its shares are held by insiders and are restricted from selling. The market activities of hedge-funds and market makers acting as a loosely cooperative group are difficult to prove but sometimes too obvious to not notice. We note that most of the aggressive Manas selling was by market makers which had never been seen in the market before.

    In the United States market makers are allowed to sell shares they do not own on downticks, therefore if they have the margin or capital they can in an illiquid market effectively drive the price of a share down. They do this in the hope they frighten investors into selling too. If Investors sell the market makers can then buy back or cover their short position at a lower price and pocket this difference. It is unfair and unethical and it is common. Market makers and hedge funds acting in concert can really create havoc in a market as we have seen.

    If the market makers and hedge funds do not manage to frighten enough investors into selling, they always have the option of moving the position around (buying from other cooperative market makers or hedge funds who then assumed the short position) to stay within the 11 days market makers are allowed to be short. This rotating of the position is possible as long as they have the capital and it is profitable as long as the stock is falling. In interOIl's case they were helped by a less than exciting news release regarding the company's Elk 2 exploration well.

    BUY OF THE CENTURY?
    In Manas Petroleum's case their news release is highly positive and reaffirms our expectation that more company-building (and share price boosting) deals are in its pipeline. Manas has just more than tripled its Fergana Basin acreage to over 11,000 acres with the addition of its Tajikistan license. Recall that the United States Geological Survey estimates 3 billion barrels (produce-able) remain in the same structures Manas Petroleum and partner Santos are testing in the basin. Manas is also in the advanced stages of negotiations regarding the licenses farm-out.

    Our guess and it is just a guess, is that the Manas farm-out will amount to something similar to their current deal with Santos. This means the company will have more than $100 million allocated towards the exploration and development of what is arguably some of the most prospective real estate in the Fergana Basin. This is not good news - IT IS GREAT NEWS! And it further confirms our expectation that they will continue to build their portfolio of high quality projects while minimizing financial risk.

    Remember UK-based petroleum Engineers Scott Pickford (now part to the rather large RPS group) gave the Manas/Kyrgyz licenses first 10 "known" under-thrust structures 1.2 billion barrels (STOIIP). For a so-called exploration play (or is a lot of it really closer to development?) it is a brilliant beginning.

    The question now is what does the Manas/Tajik license (which is adjacent to one of the highest potential Manas/Kyrgyz licenses) do to these estimates? Double or triple them ? And what about the over $200 million Chinese energy giant CNOOC is spending right next door? For now the company is not saying anything. We should expect in the coming months some kind of estimate and our guess is - judging by how fast it looks to be farmed out - it will be good.

    In the news release the company makes clear that other deals may be on the horizon and we expect they will be as world-class as what they already have.

    We are continuing to buy Manas Petroleum shares and consider this a great opportunity. Manas is creating a diversified and major oil asset base that we think is likely to make it a compelling take-over candidate at much higher prices. We hear every day the heads of super giants such as of Shell, BP and Apache describe how hard it is to find large high impact oil assets to develop. Manas is doing what they are having trouble doing: finding and acquiring giant exploration assets.

    THE BIG PICTURE
    But what could the Manas projects eventually be in the end be worth? The future valuation of these assets is relatively simple to estimate. For example to the North of the Manas Kyrgyz project, CNOOC acquired PetroKazkistan for $4 billion and last winter CITIC paid Canadian Nation's Energy approximately $1.9 billion for a 340 million barrel oil field or over $5 per barrel. It was a good bench mark for what the near term saleability and value of what Manas is developing in Central Asia. Note that these prices were paid BEFORE the energy crunch became obvious. Will $5 per barrel be the going price? We doubt it.

    In areas closer to Europe (such as Manas Petroleum's Albanian project) and with more diversified oil asset packages such as what Manas is working to develop, the price is currently above $10 per barrel and increasing. For example the Chevron-Texaco take over of Unocal was at about $12 per barrel but that was when oil prices were a lot lower. Consider that these take overs have occured in an environment of $60 or less oil prices and in the face of considerable skepticism that oil prices would move higher and we suggest that these take over bench marks will increase in the future. We have previously mentioned the Harrison Lovegrove study which demonstrated that worldwide, attactive exploration and development opportunities are becoming increasingly rare. Manas has these opportunities and this is why major oil companies continue to come to Manas to develop its projects.

    Note that oil now trades above $70, and oil consumption remains strong. All evidence is that oil supply will become more restricted in the near future. Only yesterday Claude Mandill the head of the International Energy Agency warned that "World oil demand will rise faster than expected to 2012 while production lags, leading to a supply crunch" We know that the IEA has raised its projected call (added demand) for OPEC crude as non-OPEC production continues to decline and consumption grows. The agency expects the call on OPEC crude to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day by this fall! This effectively eliminates OPEC's spare capacity cushion and makes it highly likely that oil prices will mover dramatically higher from here. The bull market continues.

    IMPORTANT REMINDER: Before investing into any of our featured companies, please watch the "How to prepare for a trade" tutorial under the "Investing 101" tab.



    MEXORO MINERALS LTD. (OTCBB: MXOM) - UP 8.3%!

    Comment

    • Peter Hansen
      Banned
      • Jul 2005
      • 3968

      Taser Electrifying !

      Received this E-mail from from Taipan Financial ......Taser may be worth a 2nd look?

      Investing in Taser: Near Two-Year Highs

      Technically and fundamentally, the arguments for upside are sound.

      If you're looking for a near-term pullback in the stock, don't hold your breath. The best price you'll see near-term is $18, which is quickly being approached with each passing day. You also have to take into consideration the massive short covering. Twenty seven percent of the 57.79 million-share-float are short.

      Are higher price levels out of the question? Not with the Taser C2 product hitting the market.

      For a reported $350 retail price tag, you can order your own Taser. Less powerful than the police version, the C2 shoot barbs that pierce the skin and deliver an incapacitating jolt of electricity. TASER brags about the C2's "incredible take down power." Plus, Taser C2 barbs have a reported reach of up to 15 feet with the ability to cut through two inches of clothing.

      With many of the sales-curbing factor now behind the company, a $25 price target is highly conservative.

      Consider Taser (TASR:NASDAQ) under $18, and/or the January 2008 15 calls (LXFAC).

      Comment

      • skiracer
        Senior Member
        • Dec 2004
        • 6314

        Originally posted by Peter Hansen View Post
        Received this E-mail from from Taipan Financial ......Taser may be worth a 2nd look?

        Investing in Taser: Near Two-Year Highs

        Technically and fundamentally, the arguments for upside are sound.

        If you're looking for a near-term pullback in the stock, don't hold your breath. The best price you'll see near-term is $18, which is quickly being approached with each passing day. You also have to take into consideration the massive short covering. Twenty seven percent of the 57.79 million-share-float are short.

        Are higher price levels out of the question? Not with the Taser C2 product hitting the market.

        For a reported $350 retail price tag, you can order your own Taser. Less powerful than the police version, the C2 shoot barbs that pierce the skin and deliver an incapacitating jolt of electricity. TASER brags about the C2's "incredible take down power." Plus, Taser C2 barbs have a reported reach of up to 15 feet with the ability to cut through two inches of clothing.

        With many of the sales-curbing factor now behind the company, a $25 price target is highly conservative.

        Consider Taser (TASR:NASDAQ) under $18, and/or the January 2008 15 calls (LXFAC).
        Pete,
        I posted on TASR quite awhile back when it was just under $8 a share. I played it in the POTY contest then and bought a large quantity of it between 7.8 and 8.20. Still holding it as it has now more than doubled from my initial entry. Not saying that anyone has missed the boat, only about 7 or 8 points, but apparently no one was reading or listening then either. $8 would have been a much better entry point than $18 don't you think. I'm surprised that Doug hasn't been claiming that he discovered the play on the ILL 100 now that you have posted on it. I think that any entry right here will prove to be profitable over the longer term but procrastinating about the play will not produce the same gains that making the play does.
        THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

        Comment

        • billyjoe
          Senior Member
          • Nov 2003
          • 9014

          Pete,
          I've got TWIN rated #1 in the $80-$100 category and MIVA in the top 3 of stocks under $10. TWIN eps is up 104% in last 52 weeks.


          --------billyjoe

          Comment

          • Websman
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 5545

            I like TASR, but I'm really liking PDGT.PK.

            Yea I know....It's a Pink Sheet stock, but the product has real potential.

            Comment

            • New-born baby
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 6095

              Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
              Pete,
              I've got TWIN rated #1 in the $80-$100 category and MIVA in the top 3 of stocks under $10. TWIN eps is up 104% in last 52 weeks.


              --------billyjoe
              Billy,
              How do you rate ICE these days (in the over $100 category?)
              pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

              Comment

              • Peter Hansen
                Banned
                • Jul 2005
                • 3968

                POSCO PKX Blow Out Earnings.........LOOK OUT !

                PKX Korean Steel Stock Mega Star will rise today ........sure as the sun comes up .......hope you are in it .GOOD LUCK!
                Last edited by Peter Hansen; 07-16-2007, 06:26 AM. Reason: Typo

                Comment

                • billyjoe
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2003
                  • 9014

                  Originally posted by New-born baby View Post
                  Billy,
                  How do you rate ICE these days (in the over $100 category?)
                  Sorry,New-born but ICE is a little cold in my rating system.

                  Stocks over $100

                  NOV---355
                  CLB---336
                  PCP---329
                  ICE---288----This really isn't a true comparison since my initial screen only included stocks with >75% appreciation and >75% EPS gain in last 52 weeks. I'll watch these 4 stocks and report change in next 30 days starting July 16th.

                  ------------billyjoe

                  Comment

                  • Peter Hansen
                    Banned
                    • Jul 2005
                    • 3968

                    VSR Looking Good!!!!

                    Versar Inc ( VSR ) close 7/13/07 $12.99 is UNDERVALUED according to Vector Vest who says its true value is $18.03 .

                    Forecasted EGR of 30%
                    P/E 10.15
                    E/Y 9.84
                    P/S 3.12
                    Sales Growth 118% per year

                    Definitely worth throwing some coins in this one !

                    Comment

                    • Peter Hansen
                      Banned
                      • Jul 2005
                      • 3968

                      Mhj Vsr...... Boffo Zocko Wow !!!!

                      MHJ (Jewlery and China Real estate ) UP 32.94% YESTERDAY close at $12.47
                      With small float this stock still has room to run and is up in after hours !

                      VSR ( Waste and disposal services ) UP 10.85% YESTERDAY close at 14.40

                      Maybe wait for pullback on VSR.

                      See Posts above ......I still love the undervalued MHJ ......watch that baby run !
                      Yeah keep on truckin ......daddy needs a new pair of shoes !

                      Comment

                      • Peter Hansen
                        Banned
                        • Jul 2005
                        • 3968

                        USMO One more for the gipper

                        USMO .....No technical Bull Jive on this one ...........simply nice chart, Mobile communications , p/e 18.91 and it is moving on up!

                        Comment

                        • Peter Hansen
                          Banned
                          • Jul 2005
                          • 3968

                          The Case For $90 PLUS Oil !

                          The way it looks to me Oil will go HIGHER , and below I summarize the reasons.

                          1. Hurricane season is here and potential for monster Gulf hurricanes can't be ruled out
                          2. Political instability in the Persian Gulf ....I believe 2 US aircraft carriers are there.....Iran may get attacked by US or Israel.
                          3. Homeland security has reminded us about possible US Al Qaieda Attacks , which could include oil facilities.
                          4. The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) says oil demand is continuously increasing and even if the economy slows, global oil demand will start outpacing supply in 2011.
                          5. Production in Iraq is falling ,and with all the Civil war and madness dont look for increases anytime soon .
                          6. Goldman Sachs said that Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait MUST increase production by the end of the summer to avoid $90 plus prices.

                          If you beleive as I do the following could be used to place bets on oil .

                          1. Energy Select Spider (XLE ) Conserative Oil play
                          2. Canadian Natural Resources ( CNQ ) Oil sands superstar
                          3. Holly Corp ( HOC ) Oil services superstar....check its long term performance on www.yahoo.com .......you will be amazed!
                          4. Profunds Oil & Gas Ultasector ETF (DIG ) it gives you 200% or twice the performance of Dow Jones Oil and gas index. The most specultive of the 4 mentioned but will "BLOW" the doors off your portfolio as oil rises .

                          Hope this has been helpful...if you have any of your own favorite oil investments .....post them here .....and have a beautiful day !

                          Comment

                          • Peter Hansen
                            Banned
                            • Jul 2005
                            • 3968

                            Komatsu.......Is all Over!

                            While driving in congested NJ , I do notice that Komatsu heavy equipment ( KMTUY.PK ) is present at many roadside construction sites, and smaller equipment is on the job at residential construction sites.

                            ( KMTUY) Pink Sheets ? .....I know what you are thinking; but, some research below may change your opinion of the Japanese version of Caterpiller.

                            1) KMTUY closed 7/20/07 $129.75
                            2) KMTUY is the 2nd largest construction equipment company in the whole world
                            3) China is preparing for 08 Olympics and is a mega consumer of minerals, materials and oil, and as such is buyiing all the equipment komatsu can throw at them.
                            4) Caterpiller racked up 1 billion sales in China , while Komatsu pulled in 1.2 billion in sales during the 2006 year . It has #1 share with 22% of the market in China.
                            5) Komatsu sales in North America are 22%.
                            6) As in auto sales Parts and Service is a huge business. Komatsu is setting up a service and parts division in China and it will be ready to rock n roll in 2008.
                            7) Is Komatsu a young start up company .....HELL no.... they have been in China 19 years with 32 dealerships as compared to Caterpillers 4.
                            Are they making money?......you're darn tootin' partner , profits are up 80% in the first quarter of 2007. With explosive growth in China , I dont really invision any slow downs in the near future. Komatsu has 3 straight years of profit growth
                            9) Oh yes ......Komatsu has opened a dealership in India in 2006 .....and I can imagine , with all the infrastructure work India needs business will be booming.

                            Yes I know ......hate those pink sheets myself ......but with the numbers Komatsu has .....I am buying a few shares ....and maybe you should do the same . Good Luck!

                            5)
                            Last edited by Peter Hansen; 07-23-2007, 09:15 AM. Reason: typo

                            Comment

                            • Peter Hansen
                              Banned
                              • Jul 2005
                              • 3968

                              TMY Speculative Stock

                              TMY Hot stock ......not for hold .......buy and go after quick pop.

                              Comment

                              • Peter Hansen
                                Banned
                                • Jul 2005
                                • 3968

                                CKSW Good News Sell 7/26/07 AM after the pop

                                DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
                                ClickSoftware Technologies Inc. (CKSW) said second-quarter earnings more than doubled to $964,000, or 3 cents a share, from $443,000, or 2 cents a share, a year earlier.

                                Comment

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