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Help on this one MNAP.OB
Received this mailing ,generally not fond of OTCBB stocks or pink sheets .....ANY OPINIONS ON THIS STOCK?
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Manas Petroleum (MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY ER
Mexoro Minerals Ltd. (MXOM) - UP 8.3%!
Investing 101
The Movers & Shakers Blog
Equity Strategies Radio Interview
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MANAS PETROLEUM CORP (OTCBB: MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY EQUITY RESEARCH
ORIGINAL ALERT INFO :
ALERT DATE & PRICE: APR 23rd, 2007 / $3.60
ALERT EMAIL: CLICK HERE
CURRENT PRICE: $5.15
CURRENT % ROI: +43%
COMPANY CONTACT INFO:
Manas Petroleum Corp.
Bahnhofstr. 9, P.O. Box 155
CH-6341 Baar
Switzerland
Phone: (41) 144-718-1030
Fax: (41) 144-718-1039
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.manaspetroleum.com
INVESTOR RELATIONS INFO:
Tatjana Rosenast
Phone: (41) 144-718- 1032
Email: [email protected]
This weekend I was planning on writing an in-depth piece on Manas about the recent pullback in the stock. Then I ran across this great write-up on Manas by Equity Research and I feel it's just best to send the complete article out to our members instead. They do a great job on sizing up the entire situation. Here you go:
-------------------------------
Manas Petroleum Corp. buying opportunity
Only two weeks ago we discussed the fall of InterOil Corp. as the company's thousands of put options (if converted they would total well over 7 millions shares) combined with an attack by short-selling hedge funds and mildly-dissappointing drill results, triggered an avalanche of selling of interOIl shares. On its second day one of America's leading analysts (at Raymond James Financial), said IOC's shares had fallen too far. By the fourth following what totalled a 58% plunge they issued a strong buy with a price target nearly 250% higher than the IOC share crash low.
MANAS GETS MUGGED
Now it is Manas Petroleum's Corp. (OTCBB: MNAP) turn to tumble. The only similarity is that they share some of the same financiers as InterOil (Clarion Finanz) and they appear to also be the victim of a short attack, judging from the tenor and source of the selling. Manas has a relatively illiquid market and most of its shares are held by insiders and are restricted from selling. The market activities of hedge-funds and market makers acting as a loosely cooperative group are difficult to prove but sometimes too obvious to not notice. We note that most of the aggressive Manas selling was by market makers which had never been seen in the market before.
In the United States market makers are allowed to sell shares they do not own on downticks, therefore if they have the margin or capital they can in an illiquid market effectively drive the price of a share down. They do this in the hope they frighten investors into selling too. If Investors sell the market makers can then buy back or cover their short position at a lower price and pocket this difference. It is unfair and unethical and it is common. Market makers and hedge funds acting in concert can really create havoc in a market as we have seen.
If the market makers and hedge funds do not manage to frighten enough investors into selling, they always have the option of moving the position around (buying from other cooperative market makers or hedge funds who then assumed the short position) to stay within the 11 days market makers are allowed to be short. This rotating of the position is possible as long as they have the capital and it is profitable as long as the stock is falling. In interOIl's case they were helped by a less than exciting news release regarding the company's Elk 2 exploration well.
BUY OF THE CENTURY?
In Manas Petroleum's case their news release is highly positive and reaffirms our expectation that more company-building (and share price boosting) deals are in its pipeline. Manas has just more than tripled its Fergana Basin acreage to over 11,000 acres with the addition of its Tajikistan license. Recall that the United States Geological Survey estimates 3 billion barrels (produce-able) remain in the same structures Manas Petroleum and partner Santos are testing in the basin. Manas is also in the advanced stages of negotiations regarding the licenses farm-out.
Our guess and it is just a guess, is that the Manas farm-out will amount to something similar to their current deal with Santos. This means the company will have more than $100 million allocated towards the exploration and development of what is arguably some of the most prospective real estate in the Fergana Basin. This is not good news - IT IS GREAT NEWS! And it further confirms our expectation that they will continue to build their portfolio of high quality projects while minimizing financial risk.
Remember UK-based petroleum Engineers Scott Pickford (now part to the rather large RPS group) gave the Manas/Kyrgyz licenses first 10 "known" under-thrust structures 1.2 billion barrels (STOIIP). For a so-called exploration play (or is a lot of it really closer to development?) it is a brilliant beginning.
The question now is what does the Manas/Tajik license (which is adjacent to one of the highest potential Manas/Kyrgyz licenses) do to these estimates? Double or triple them ? And what about the over $200 million Chinese energy giant CNOOC is spending right next door? For now the company is not saying anything. We should expect in the coming months some kind of estimate and our guess is - judging by how fast it looks to be farmed out - it will be good.
In the news release the company makes clear that other deals may be on the horizon and we expect they will be as world-class as what they already have.
We are continuing to buy Manas Petroleum shares and consider this a great opportunity. Manas is creating a diversified and major oil asset base that we think is likely to make it a compelling take-over candidate at much higher prices. We hear every day the heads of super giants such as of Shell, BP and Apache describe how hard it is to find large high impact oil assets to develop. Manas is doing what they are having trouble doing: finding and acquiring giant exploration assets.
THE BIG PICTURE
But what could the Manas projects eventually be in the end be worth? The future valuation of these assets is relatively simple to estimate. For example to the North of the Manas Kyrgyz project, CNOOC acquired PetroKazkistan for $4 billion and last winter CITIC paid Canadian Nation's Energy approximately $1.9 billion for a 340 million barrel oil field or over $5 per barrel. It was a good bench mark for what the near term saleability and value of what Manas is developing in Central Asia. Note that these prices were paid BEFORE the energy crunch became obvious. Will $5 per barrel be the going price? We doubt it.
In areas closer to Europe (such as Manas Petroleum's Albanian project) and with more diversified oil asset packages such as what Manas is working to develop, the price is currently above $10 per barrel and increasing. For example the Chevron-Texaco take over of Unocal was at about $12 per barrel but that was when oil prices were a lot lower. Consider that these take overs have occured in an environment of $60 or less oil prices and in the face of considerable skepticism that oil prices would move higher and we suggest that these take over bench marks will increase in the future. We have previously mentioned the Harrison Lovegrove study which demonstrated that worldwide, attactive exploration and development opportunities are becoming increasingly rare. Manas has these opportunities and this is why major oil companies continue to come to Manas to develop its projects.
Note that oil now trades above $70, and oil consumption remains strong. All evidence is that oil supply will become more restricted in the near future. Only yesterday Claude Mandill the head of the International Energy Agency warned that "World oil demand will rise faster than expected to 2012 while production lags, leading to a supply crunch" We know that the IEA has raised its projected call (added demand) for OPEC crude as non-OPEC production continues to decline and consumption grows. The agency expects the call on OPEC crude to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day by this fall! This effectively eliminates OPEC's spare capacity cushion and makes it highly likely that oil prices will mover dramatically higher from here. The bull market continues.
IMPORTANT REMINDER: Before investing into any of our featured companies, please watch the "How to prepare for a trade" tutorial under the "Investing 101" tab.
MEXORO MINERALS LTD. (OTCBB: MXOM) - UP 8.3%!
Received this mailing ,generally not fond of OTCBB stocks or pink sheets .....ANY OPINIONS ON THIS STOCK?
QUICK LINKS
Manas Petroleum (MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY ER
Mexoro Minerals Ltd. (MXOM) - UP 8.3%!
Investing 101
The Movers & Shakers Blog
Equity Strategies Radio Interview
Market Data
Ensure Email Delivery
Disclaimer
MANAS PETROLEUM CORP (OTCBB: MNAP) - GREAT ARTICLE BY EQUITY RESEARCH
ORIGINAL ALERT INFO :
ALERT DATE & PRICE: APR 23rd, 2007 / $3.60
ALERT EMAIL: CLICK HERE
CURRENT PRICE: $5.15
CURRENT % ROI: +43%
COMPANY CONTACT INFO:
Manas Petroleum Corp.
Bahnhofstr. 9, P.O. Box 155
CH-6341 Baar
Switzerland
Phone: (41) 144-718-1030
Fax: (41) 144-718-1039
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.manaspetroleum.com
INVESTOR RELATIONS INFO:
Tatjana Rosenast
Phone: (41) 144-718- 1032
Email: [email protected]
This weekend I was planning on writing an in-depth piece on Manas about the recent pullback in the stock. Then I ran across this great write-up on Manas by Equity Research and I feel it's just best to send the complete article out to our members instead. They do a great job on sizing up the entire situation. Here you go:
-------------------------------
Manas Petroleum Corp. buying opportunity
Only two weeks ago we discussed the fall of InterOil Corp. as the company's thousands of put options (if converted they would total well over 7 millions shares) combined with an attack by short-selling hedge funds and mildly-dissappointing drill results, triggered an avalanche of selling of interOIl shares. On its second day one of America's leading analysts (at Raymond James Financial), said IOC's shares had fallen too far. By the fourth following what totalled a 58% plunge they issued a strong buy with a price target nearly 250% higher than the IOC share crash low.
MANAS GETS MUGGED
Now it is Manas Petroleum's Corp. (OTCBB: MNAP) turn to tumble. The only similarity is that they share some of the same financiers as InterOil (Clarion Finanz) and they appear to also be the victim of a short attack, judging from the tenor and source of the selling. Manas has a relatively illiquid market and most of its shares are held by insiders and are restricted from selling. The market activities of hedge-funds and market makers acting as a loosely cooperative group are difficult to prove but sometimes too obvious to not notice. We note that most of the aggressive Manas selling was by market makers which had never been seen in the market before.
In the United States market makers are allowed to sell shares they do not own on downticks, therefore if they have the margin or capital they can in an illiquid market effectively drive the price of a share down. They do this in the hope they frighten investors into selling too. If Investors sell the market makers can then buy back or cover their short position at a lower price and pocket this difference. It is unfair and unethical and it is common. Market makers and hedge funds acting in concert can really create havoc in a market as we have seen.
If the market makers and hedge funds do not manage to frighten enough investors into selling, they always have the option of moving the position around (buying from other cooperative market makers or hedge funds who then assumed the short position) to stay within the 11 days market makers are allowed to be short. This rotating of the position is possible as long as they have the capital and it is profitable as long as the stock is falling. In interOIl's case they were helped by a less than exciting news release regarding the company's Elk 2 exploration well.
BUY OF THE CENTURY?
In Manas Petroleum's case their news release is highly positive and reaffirms our expectation that more company-building (and share price boosting) deals are in its pipeline. Manas has just more than tripled its Fergana Basin acreage to over 11,000 acres with the addition of its Tajikistan license. Recall that the United States Geological Survey estimates 3 billion barrels (produce-able) remain in the same structures Manas Petroleum and partner Santos are testing in the basin. Manas is also in the advanced stages of negotiations regarding the licenses farm-out.
Our guess and it is just a guess, is that the Manas farm-out will amount to something similar to their current deal with Santos. This means the company will have more than $100 million allocated towards the exploration and development of what is arguably some of the most prospective real estate in the Fergana Basin. This is not good news - IT IS GREAT NEWS! And it further confirms our expectation that they will continue to build their portfolio of high quality projects while minimizing financial risk.
Remember UK-based petroleum Engineers Scott Pickford (now part to the rather large RPS group) gave the Manas/Kyrgyz licenses first 10 "known" under-thrust structures 1.2 billion barrels (STOIIP). For a so-called exploration play (or is a lot of it really closer to development?) it is a brilliant beginning.
The question now is what does the Manas/Tajik license (which is adjacent to one of the highest potential Manas/Kyrgyz licenses) do to these estimates? Double or triple them ? And what about the over $200 million Chinese energy giant CNOOC is spending right next door? For now the company is not saying anything. We should expect in the coming months some kind of estimate and our guess is - judging by how fast it looks to be farmed out - it will be good.
In the news release the company makes clear that other deals may be on the horizon and we expect they will be as world-class as what they already have.
We are continuing to buy Manas Petroleum shares and consider this a great opportunity. Manas is creating a diversified and major oil asset base that we think is likely to make it a compelling take-over candidate at much higher prices. We hear every day the heads of super giants such as of Shell, BP and Apache describe how hard it is to find large high impact oil assets to develop. Manas is doing what they are having trouble doing: finding and acquiring giant exploration assets.
THE BIG PICTURE
But what could the Manas projects eventually be in the end be worth? The future valuation of these assets is relatively simple to estimate. For example to the North of the Manas Kyrgyz project, CNOOC acquired PetroKazkistan for $4 billion and last winter CITIC paid Canadian Nation's Energy approximately $1.9 billion for a 340 million barrel oil field or over $5 per barrel. It was a good bench mark for what the near term saleability and value of what Manas is developing in Central Asia. Note that these prices were paid BEFORE the energy crunch became obvious. Will $5 per barrel be the going price? We doubt it.
In areas closer to Europe (such as Manas Petroleum's Albanian project) and with more diversified oil asset packages such as what Manas is working to develop, the price is currently above $10 per barrel and increasing. For example the Chevron-Texaco take over of Unocal was at about $12 per barrel but that was when oil prices were a lot lower. Consider that these take overs have occured in an environment of $60 or less oil prices and in the face of considerable skepticism that oil prices would move higher and we suggest that these take over bench marks will increase in the future. We have previously mentioned the Harrison Lovegrove study which demonstrated that worldwide, attactive exploration and development opportunities are becoming increasingly rare. Manas has these opportunities and this is why major oil companies continue to come to Manas to develop its projects.
Note that oil now trades above $70, and oil consumption remains strong. All evidence is that oil supply will become more restricted in the near future. Only yesterday Claude Mandill the head of the International Energy Agency warned that "World oil demand will rise faster than expected to 2012 while production lags, leading to a supply crunch" We know that the IEA has raised its projected call (added demand) for OPEC crude as non-OPEC production continues to decline and consumption grows. The agency expects the call on OPEC crude to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day by this fall! This effectively eliminates OPEC's spare capacity cushion and makes it highly likely that oil prices will mover dramatically higher from here. The bull market continues.
IMPORTANT REMINDER: Before investing into any of our featured companies, please watch the "How to prepare for a trade" tutorial under the "Investing 101" tab.
MEXORO MINERALS LTD. (OTCBB: MXOM) - UP 8.3%!
Are they making money?......you're darn tootin' partner , profits are up 80% in the first quarter of 2007. With explosive growth in China , I dont really invision any slow downs in the near future. Komatsu has 3 straight years of profit growth
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