Pete's Money Makers

[billyjoe]

Pete,
You wouldn't happen to have a list of mortgage companies that will be effected vs. those that won't ? It seems as though those being unfairly linked will be excellent long term investments.

------------billyjoe

[spikefader]

Ladies and gentlemen this is my First post in my thread entitled PETE'S MONEY MAKERS. I would first like to thank Mr Marketplace for providing this forum which allows for the free exchange of ideas about stocks. Hopefully I can live up to the Post's Name Sake and provide all with some money making opportunities!

I'm bookmarking this thread! Great t' see yer own space on the Web to share yer brilliant trade ideas!

[Tatnic]

Awhile back Dan Ferris of Extreme Value Newsletter issiued a challenge for all Billion Dollar Portfolio Mgrs to submit 5 stocks that thought would outperform his 5 picks between 2/12/07 - 2/10/10 . Not one manager accepted. I threw my hat in the ring (Unofficially of course) . I will list his picks and my picks and there performance from the 2/12/07 date 4/10/07. I am currently ahead....but there is a long way to go.

Hypothetical 50K Portfolios were set up allocating 10K to each of the 5 stocks. The portfolios and results as of 4/10/07 area as follows my picks

Last Updated : 8:10 AM on 04/11/07



Value: 54,683.22 Gain/Loss: +4,683.22 (+9.37%) Today: +190.95 (+0.35

Symbol Shares Last/NAV Net Change Pur. Price Gain/Loss Value Headlines Charts Edit
AAUK 419.6391 27.40 +0.30 23.83 +1,498.11 11,498.11
BAM 200.7226 55.23 -0.31 49.82 +1,085.91 11,085.91
MKL 20.2429 481.21 -3.73 494.00 -258.91 9,741.09
SHLD 55.1329 190.27 +3.37 181.38 +490.13 10,490.14
WCG 130.719 90.79 +0.13 76.50 +1,867.97 11,867.98

Dan's Picks

Value: 49,714.65 Gain/Loss: -285.35 (-0.57%) Today: +51.28 (+0.10%)



Symbol Shares Last/NAV Net Change Pur. Price Gain/Loss Value Headlines Charts Edit
HD 242.7184 38.23 +0.15 41.20 -720.87 9,279.12
JOE 185.0139 54.05 +0.63 54.05 0.00 10,000.00
MSFT 346.7406 28.40 -0.17 28.84 -152.57 9,847.43
WMT 209.468 47.94 -0.53 47.74 +41.89 10,041.90
WU 455.1661 23.17 +0.15 21.97 +546.20 10,546.20

I remember his list...and remember disliking it. Home depot? microshit? Give me a break.

Here's some value stocks I found that I like (remember, "value" is a subjective term):

from an older list, late last year: ach, npsn, cga.

from a newer list: esgr, npsn, ach, cgv, e, tti, icon.

out of all of those, I own ach. These may not fit your or anyone elses' definition of value stocks, but I tend to look at things in a relative manner, ie relatively low p/b with a decent upside potential. Dividends also help to cushion some blows.

[peanuts]

Huuuuge

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) tends to be linked with other mortgage companies because of the Subprime Crisis . It is different from the others because it does NOT originate mortgages. It makes money from the spread between short term interest rates and mortgage rates, a relativlely safe business. If the spread widens NLY will make more money. The company has almost 500 million in equity . NLY has a value of 27.31 compared to its recent price of 15.55. and a PE of 14.95. This represents an undrvalued stock with great possibility for future gains .......I Like it!

WOW Peter.... just wait until tomorrow!!!! Excellent!

[Websman]

Pete,
Check out PDGT.PK I believe this one has real potential.

http://www.paradigmtactical.com/

[mrmarket]

Go get em Pete...your analysis in the past has been very thorough and insightful...I look forward to reading more. Nice to have more fundy guys aboard.

[spikefader]

Nice call on NLY Pete; thread off to a great start!

[Peter Hansen]

DFC May be in Your Future?

With mortgage companies falling faster than a sailor's skivvies at the local bordello ..WHY another mortgage company? Delta Financial Corporation (DFC) may be different . DFC has made loans that are all cash out or debtconsolidation equity loans. More than 95% of its mortgages are secured by mortgages on 1 to 4 family residential properties. About 86% of Delta's loans in 2006 were fixed rate loans. Syndey Miller the founder and his family owns 1/3 of all outstanding shares. When a person has that much of his own money in the stock .........that tells me something. The price $8.22 per share is less than its current value of $14.80 according to Vector Vest. It has a forcasted Earnings Growth Rate of 19% , an eye popping PE of 6.04 and what really impresses me the most is an Earnings Yield of 16.55!! (Anything over 5 is considered good) I dont think DFC will be at $8.22 for long!

[skiracer]

With mortgage companies falling faster than a sailor's skivvies at the local bordello ..WHY another mortgage company? Delta Financial Corporation (DFC) may be different . DFC has made loans that are all cash out or debtconsolidation equity loans. More than 95% of its mortgages are secured by mortgages on 1 to 4 family residential properties. About 86% of Delta's loans in 2006 were fixed rate loans. Syndey Miller the founder and his family owns 1/3 of all outstanding shares. When a person has that much of his own money in the stock .........that tells me something. The price $8.22 per share is less than its current value of $14.80 according to Vector Vest. It has a forcasted Earnings Growth Rate of 19% , an eye popping PE of 6.04 and what really impresses me the most is an Earnings Yield of 16.55!! (Anything over 5 is considered good) I dont think DFC will be at $8.22 for long!

Pete,
I always read your posts for worthwhile leads. Great that your finally posting on your own thread. I took a look at both the daily and weekly charts for DFC and the charts don't forecast anything that looks like up to me right now. I think this stock could run farther down from looking at the charts. One of my favorite scans is a 52 week low search that I run with a combination of other factors looking for stocks that have hit bottom after a long slide down and are now prepping for turning up and making the right side of their cups. I like to look for institutional accumulation. When this is increasing it is a fair indication that they are getting in at a good level. I would like to see it base for awhile more here and to show me that it is starting to turn up. I like to catch them right there. I also like to look into the fundamentals to see that whatever it was that caused that big slide down is done or rectified. This stock looks to be near a bottom and there is pretty good institutional accumulation happening of late. I wouldn't buy it right here but I would definitely put it on my watchlist for this type of chart pattern for consideration once I see what I'm looking for begin to happen.
Good luck with the thread.

[Lyehopper]

Nice Thread PETE!

Hey Pete.... I like the thread. I'll be sure to read it regularly....

[Karel]

And the financials seem to be open to interpretation, to put it mildly:

http://preview.tinyurl.com/2ear7o

Regards,

Karel

[Peter Hansen]

Thanks People!

Thanks for words of encouragement.....Some of the stocks I may comment on are of course speculative in nature .......and your input on any of the stocks mentioned is invaluable to me as well as others. I would say many cooks make the broth that much more tasteful and there can never be too many cooks LOL ........Thanx all for for your comments!

[Peter Hansen]

CIPH (Ciphergen) Good Story?

CIPH Ciphergen is a medical diagnostic equipment maker, and the key areas of concern are Ovarian Cancer and PAD Peripheral Artery Disease detection. I like the fact that CIPH partnered with Quest Diagnostics, a company which generated more than 5.5 billion in sales and has grown to a 9 billion dollar company . Quest owns 6 million shares of CIPH and that represents 17% of all CIPH shares. Ciph is sitting on 17 million in cash, which is huge for a company with a 51 million dollar cap. Ciph also has 20 million in current assets and has only 7 million in current liabilities. On 3/5/07 it completed initial testing of its cancer screening. It identified 85% of the cancer cases while the average testing from other companies is 33%. In August 07 they will disclose the FULL results from a much larger test of its diagnostic equipment. Fridays close was $1.34 .....could it be time to "Load Up The Truck" .......What say You?

[skiracer]

Unless you're resigned to leaving the money sit for awhile in a bioteck company betting on the results of it's trial I don't see anything in either the daily or weekly charts that grabs me. Institutional distribution, selling, has been on the increase with about 9% of the institutional holdings sold off recently. That big cash base isn't from sales and earnings. Their sitting on someone elses invested money. I don't see it.

[billyjoe]

Pete,
I think NLY is the best bet. Bucking the trend big time and on the verge of a 52 week high vs. DFC which is feeling the wrath of sub prime whether deserved or not. When the recovery comes I'd rather be in NLY's shoes.

-------------billyjoe