CLSR ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Autumn Special

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    CLSR ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Autumn Special

    Did you ever get in a fight when you were all hammer head sharked and some guy who you thought you could handle easily did a tap dance on your face? Well that never happened to $$$MR. MARKET$$$. Usually when some guy’s girlfriend was drooling all over me and he got all faceful, he’d take her to another joint. However, I have seen some guys come in on Monday morning after a rough weekend with Band-Aids all over their face. I bet they would be happy if there was a way for them to get the crap beat out of them but not have to wear Band-Aids. Well… there is!

    Today I bought CLSR (Closure Medical) at 30.45. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 35.14. Here’s why I like CLSR:

    CLSR’s stock is up 279% off of its 52 week low. The R^2 for this price climb is 0.84 which illustrates very strong and sustained price momentum.

    Liquiderm is applied by squeezing drops from a small plastic bottle onto a sponge-tipped swab and rolling the sponge over scrapes or cuts. Within seconds, the liquid turns into a plastic film. Instant Band-aid. Another big advantage is that it's really good at stopping bleeding much faster than a bandage. Since the Liquiderm eventually wears off by itself, you never have to worry about kids crying after you rip the Bandaid off with the hair and scab still firmly attached.

    Closure has a history of signing deals with big names. A unit of Colgate Palmolive Co. partners with Closure on Soothe-N-Seal, its canker sore sealant. Now they have J&J in their pocket. Big names for big buckaroos.

    Closure’s lead product, a surgical glue called Dermabond is designed to replace up to 30% of all operating room sutures. Not every physician has the ability to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse. Now instead of Babar the clumsy suturing your beloved first born after they slip in the tub and split their chin, Babar can use a ProPen to strategically deliver the space-age surgical glue Dermabond to fix up little Johnny. Better yet nurses can also use the product freeing the doctor to better spend his time checking the sports page, playing golf or getting a S & T. Dermabond can be applied in one-third the time it takes doctors to stitch an incision closed. You basically just paint it on so it doesn’t hurt to be applied or removed. No more crying patients. Dermabond sloughs off naturally in about five to 10 days. That eliminates the need for a return trip to the doctor to have sutures removed.

    All of this stuff sounds great in theory but will the customer buy it? They sure will. Sales have been growing by 25% per year for the last 4 years. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believe sales will pass $35 million for 2003 which should get earnings of $0.55 share. Even the wimps at First Call think CLSR will make $0.65 in 2004. This modest prediction will get the stock price to 38.

    While the P/E for CLSR is kind of pricey, you have to remember you are looking at a brand new product which is just starting to get acceptance. How many people do you know had a DVD player 3 years ago? CLSR has been solidly profitable for over 3 years now. They have moved their company into the realm of self-fueled growth capability.

    Feeling a little nervous? Here’s what the boss had to say about their most recent quarterly performance: “Obviously we are pleased with the momentum in our business and the growth realized for the quarter as well as year-to-date. CLOSURE's unprecedented performance derives not only from our own internal initiatives, but also from those of our partners at Johnson & Johnson. By the beginning of next year, we plan to introduce new line extensions to complement current products which we believe will drive future growth." Wow! More fun products to make more monies. As CLSR increases their sales, they improve their gross margins via volume efficiencies.

    Investors looking for a value play really shouldn’t be looking at CLSR. Anyone buying this stock is buying this idea. The good news is that this idea is being accepted.

    So go ahead and drink 1000 beers and go pinch some chick’s butt this weekend. No matter what happens, you won’t have to go to work Monday with Band-Aids on your face.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5319

    #2
    great pick, Ernie

    I'm in! My wife's been using that liquid bandage stuff on me for years- even for the smallest scratches. Works like magic- stings a bit though. It'll definitely be selling more as everyone catches on... more $$ for us!

    Comment


    • #3
      CLSR looks like a winner, Ernie!
      Earnings growth is spectacular, and the PE doesn't reflect it.

      Just for fun, I'll take LENS for $13. Head-to-head.

      I think LENS will hit $19.50 for a 50% gain
      before CLSR hits $35 for a 15% gain.

      A beer to the winner. How about it?

      Comment

      • mrmarket
        Administrator
        • Sep 2003
        • 5971

        #4
        Originally posted by stenzrob
        CLSR looks like a winner, Ernie!
        Earnings growth is spectacular, and the PE doesn't reflect it.

        Just for fun, I'll take LENS for $13. Head-to-head.

        I think LENS will hit $19.50 for a 50% gain
        before CLSR hits $35 for a 15% gain.

        A beer to the winner. How about it?
        Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
        =============================

        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mrmarket
          Originally posted by stenzrob
          A beer to the winner. How about it?
          Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
          Absolutely. As you can see from my avatar, I'm preparing the brew already!

          Comment


          • #6
            CLSR is very risky

            Buying a stock like CLSR with a PE of 60 may work in a bull market and you will probably make your 15%. However, a PE of 60 is an extremely high and risky valuation. In times of market turbulence, a stock with such a high valuation will get hit hard. I prefer LENS, which only has a PE of 25 and similar growth. I regret that my first post on this site had to be a negative one but I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't express my true opinion.

            Comment

            • mrmarket
              Administrator
              • Sep 2003
              • 5971

              #7
              Re: CLSR is very risky

              Originally posted by rm1982
              Buying a stock like CLSR with a PE of 60 may work in a bull market and you will probably make your 15%. However, a PE of 60 is an extremely high and risky valuation. In times of market turbulence, a stock with such a high valuation will get hit hard. I prefer LENS, which only has a PE of 25 and similar growth. I regret that my first post on this site had to be a negative one but I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't express my true opinion.
              Your opinions are more than welcome. I think if you review my previous 41 winners, you'll find that many of these had PE's less than 20 when I bought them.

              With regard to CLSR, it's a growth play, pure and simple. If revenues grow they way they have been, then the forward looking PE will be rather modest.
              =============================

              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

              Comment

              • MEA_1956
                Senior Member
                • Oct 2003
                • 655

                #8
                Originally posted by mrmarket
                Originally posted by stenzrob
                CLSR looks like a winner, Ernie!
                Earnings growth is spectacular, and the PE doesn't reflect it.

                Just for fun, I'll take LENS for $13. Head-to-head.

                I think LENS will hit $19.50 for a 50% gain
                before CLSR hits $35 for a 15% gain.

                A beer to the winner. How about it?
                Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
                Apples To Oranges well then I shall throw in a Banana.

                #1 I find myself in the Retail Sector to often, and thats where I think I shall place my meger pennies this go round. U R B N

                #2 On Aug. 1,2003 CLSR price $26.00
                Oct. 17,2003 $30.10
                Oct. 31,2003 $30.17
                There has only been a gain of .61 cents since Qrt. Report

                #3 On Aug. 1,2003 URBN price $20.15
                Oct. 17,2003 $32.50
                Oct. 31,2003 $33.36
                I'll take my chances on a Nov. 13,2003 Earnings Report. Who knows, maybe they will get hammered. I'm going to stick my neck out here and say after 9 trading days they will produce more than .61cents.

                #4 Yes, I know , MM doesn't use a T A to suport his picks. When I threw the top five into a compairance Chart URBN is tops and CLSR was the bottem.

                #5 This is an ARO play for me, Sat. afternoon my daughter stopped by to pick up her mail and chatt. Not a whole lot of chatting until she finished the URBN Cat. that we got in the mail earlier. While she looked throught it her and her friend had the usual one liners. COOL, AWESOME, WOOOO, ect. That sold me on taking a closer look @ this pick before I place my order.

                #6 If I do miss my mark on a good earnings report I can always fall back on Xmas to get my stockings filled. I promise to have five people singed up by the end of Nov. if you promise to buy at least one shirt from my fav. new store. GO U RRRR B NN ===> MEA
                GO BIG RED!!!!!

                Comment

                • mrmarket
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5971

                  #9
                  CLSR in IBD Today

                  Investor's Business Daily
                  Maker Of Medical Products Works To Be A Cut Above
                  Wednesday November 5, 10:06 am ET
                  By Amy Reeves


                  For centuries, even as medical technology has changed beyond recognition, doctors have closed wounds the same way: with stitches.
                  But Closure Medical Corp. (NasdaqNM:CLSR - News) is bringing that up to date with a new version of another old technology: glue.


                  Closure makes Dermabond, a surgical adhesive that's found its way into 90% of U.S. emergency rooms. Spread over a laceration, it creates a strong, waterproof, germproof coating that holds the flesh together until it heals.

                  The problem is that up to now, the product hasn't been convenient for long cuts. Closure has sold it in single-use vials that the doctor cracks open and squeezes out over the wound. There's enough per vial for a cut only two or three inches long.

                  That's fine for your average emergency-room laceration. But Closure also wants to replace the needle and thread in the operating room, where surgeons make incisions as long as eight inches.

                  To that end, Closure recently rolled out ProPen and its larger version, ProPen XL.

                  As the name suggests, the device is much like a glue pen. It draws a fine line of adhesive, giving the doctor more precision. Instead of squeezing the glue out, the doctor pushes a button. The XL holds twice as much glue, making it convenient for long incisions.

                  The pen is the latest tweak Closure has made to broaden its product's appeal. In January, it came out with a high-viscosity version, which stays put better on contours and curves.

                  "(ProPen is) just a matter of the next evolutionary step to make the product easier to use," said Dan Pelak, Closure's chief executive.

                  Liquid Asset

                  Closure has a keen interest in making Dermabond easier to use. After all, the product pulls in three-quarters of its revenue. The 13-year-old firm is happy to be a niche player, finding new uses for its core technology.

                  Its other products include Nexaband, a similar adhesive for use on animals; and Soothe-n-Seal, which coats canker sores to protect them from irritation.

                  Closure's most recent product rollout is the Liquid Band-Aid. That's basically a less forceful version of its surgical product, and is sold over the counter.

                  How did a little company like Closure, with less than $35 million in annual sales, get a big name like Band-Aid? Through its distribution deal with the mighty Johnson & Johnson.

                  Closure doesn't do any of its own distribution. It focuses on research, development and getting approvals.

                  But the firm has landed formidable partners in getting the products out.

                  Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Abbott Laboratories distribute Soothe-n-Seal and Nexaband, respectively. J&J's Ethicon division distributes Dermabond, and its consumer-products unit sells Liquid Band-Aid.

                  Liquid Band-Aid was launched last year, but got hobbled by inventory issues because of a supplier's failure to provide some components. Analyst Shawn Fitz of Stephens Inc. says this year could be considered its first real test, especially during the summer peak.

                  "It's actually doing better than we expected," he said.

                  Steady Growth

                  Closure is already working on two line extensions that should start coming out in a month or two, Fitz says. J&J also has just started an international launch for the product.

                  Product rollouts have been a key to Closure's consistently high double-digit sales and earnings growth. Third-quarter profit rose 30% from a year earlier to 13 cents a share. Sales gained 50% to $8.9 million.

                  Analysts polled by First Call expect earnings for all 2003 to rise 44% to 52 cents, then gain 25% to 65 cents in 2004.

                  The next frontier is the inside of the body, Pelak says. In August, Closure got the green light to do a study testing Dermabond as a vascular sealant - closing blood vessels.

                  The move would bring Closure more competition.

                  Though the company practically owns the field in external surgical glue, in vascular sealants it'll come up against products such as Cryolife's BioGlue.

                  Pelak claims that Closure's product has the edge because it's 100% synthetic. Existing internal glues are made from blood products, which carry the risk of blood-borne diseases.

                  "We've been working on it for a long time," Pelak said. "It's a major milestone."

                  Results of the initial study, a 10-patient test, might be available by the middle of next year. If all goes according to plan, analysts are eyeing a mid-2005 launch.

                  One possible stumbling block is that Closure still hasn't lined up a distributor for the product, Fitz says. Given how the firm leaves all the sales and marketing to its outside partners, that'll be an important factor in how any product does.

                  "They have a major decision ahead," Fitz said.
                  =============================

                  I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                  - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                  Comment

                  • billyjoe
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 9014

                    #10
                    ARO

                    Stenzrob, my daughter says ARO is on the way out,but I'm holding on for now with a slight gain. Hoping for a nice Christmas present from ARO. They owe me for three kids' clothes over the years.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by stenzrob
                      Originally posted by mrmarket
                      Originally posted by stenzrob
                      A beer to the winner. How about it?
                      Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
                      Absolutely. As you can see from my avatar, I'm preparing the brew already!
                      Yo Ernie,
                      What brand of beer do you prefer? (Just curious, but I suspect LENS may not be seeing $19.50 before 2005)
                      Humble regards ... stenz

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        Originally posted by stenzrob
                        Originally posted by stenzrob
                        Originally posted by mrmarket
                        Originally posted by stenzrob
                        A beer to the winner. How about it?
                        Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
                        Absolutely. As you can see from my avatar, I'm preparing the brew already!
                        Yo Ernie,
                        What brand of beer do you prefer? (Just curious, but I suspect LENS may not be seeing $19.50 before 2005)
                        Humble regards ... stenz
                        It's not over til it's over. Ask the Red Sox.
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment

                        • MEA_1956
                          Senior Member
                          • Oct 2003
                          • 655

                          #13
                          Originally posted by mrmarket
                          Originally posted by stenzrob
                          Originally posted by stenzrob
                          Originally posted by mrmarket
                          Originally posted by stenzrob
                          A beer to the winner. How about it?
                          Apples to oranges but I'll never pass up an opportunity to drink.
                          Absolutely. As you can see from my avatar, I'm preparing the brew already!
                          Yo Ernie,
                          What brand of beer do you prefer? (Just curious, but I suspect LENS may not be seeing $19.50 before 2005)
                          Humble regards ... stenz
                          It's not over til it's over. Ask the Red Sox.
                          The Red WW HHH OOOO SOX The MARLINS, all the way, The are almost as HUGE as $$$ MM $$$
                          GO BIG RED!!!!!

                          Comment

                          • jiesen
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5319

                            #14
                            hey

                            This one's about to burst! I can hardly wait...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Hit my 15% today!

                              Thanks again, Ernie. It hit my 15% and I am out! On to the next one!

                              Diane

                              Comment

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