The Spirit of '76 Top 5

[mrmarket]

I will buy one of these stocks next week:


ACH DWSN FTK MTOX VSEC


Which one do you like....and why?

[New-born baby]

Congrats on PCU. I am double glad to see it hit the marker, as I also picked it #1 to hit the 15%. So now what? Another hot set of stocks to cull through . . . let me see, which one will hit the 15% marker first?

ACH: hot stock, but China market is uncertain, or rather, has been too hot and definitely due a severe pullback into reality. And chart wise, this one looks toppy to me, and today started sporting a "high pole warning" on the PnF--not a bull flag. Nah. I think ACH needs a return to reality along with the Chinese stock market. ACH is not for me right now. But somehow my gut tells me this one may be the MM winner. I like aluminum, and I like option chains. MM could do worse, I guess. I'm giving this chart last place in the top five.

DWSN: like ACH, won a new mantle today: the infamous "high pole warning." Unlike ACH, this one has an identifiable target, $70, but unfortunately that is less than 15% away. Better than ACH, but not good enough to win. And those topping tails of late do not inspire confidence. Without an option chain, this one is strictly off limits for me.

FTK: what a hot stock! $94 target on this moon shot! Overbought into infinity and beyond, sure, but she's got a lot of fuel left, imho. I'd call this one "the winnah"--if it had an option chain. But that doesn't mean a thing to MM. This one has the best chance to win the 15% target, imho. May be a second place finish in MM's mind.

MTOX: second place is the first loser, they say, and I'd call MTOX the first loser chart-wise. Nice, but not nice enough to win. Looks like a 5th up to me, and therefore, toppy and risky. And with no option chain, it is down right suicidal.

VSEC: a nice chart that tells me that it needs a pullback before proceeding higher. Would like an optimum entry on this one, if MM takes it. Not my first choice . . . third choice. And no option chain to save you if things don't work out. DUH!

[spikefader]

The only one I don't like is VSEC.

Strongest to weakest: DWSN +83, MTOX +80, ACH +77, FTK +63, VSEC +47

Which one would I buy tomorrow? FTEK with 4% risk.

[IIC]

DWSN...because it is on my list

[billyjoe]

Based on my proprietary* scoring system with a maximum possible score of 500, the results are as follows:

VSEC---434
FTK----418
MTOX--373
DWSN--367
ACH---insufficient data

* IIC gave me the word

----------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Based on my proprietary* scoring system with a maximum possible score of 500, the results are as follows:

VSEC---434
FTK----418
MTOX--373
DWSN--367
ACH---insufficient data

* IIC gave me the word

----------billyjoe

Billy,
Then according to your system, VSEC is the winner?

I really like reading the opinions of others on these top five. Let's have it, Rob, Ski, Jiesen, et al.

[Tatnic]

The only one I don't like is VSEC.

Strongest to weakest: DWSN +83, MTOX +80, ACH +77, FTK +63, VSEC +47

Which one would I buy tomorrow? FTEK with 4% risk.

ftek is different from ftk (which has been absolutey red hot lately....ftek ain't done so bad either). I like dwsn but there's something wierd about it....can't put my finger on it?? ACH...still own it and wonder why I haven't sold it yet.

[Al1000]

ACH: hot stock, but China market is uncertain, or rather, has been too hot and definitely due a severe pullback into reality. And chart wise, this one looks toppy to me, and today started sporting a "high pole warning" on the PnF--not a bull flag. Nah. I think ACH needs a return to reality along with the Chinese stock market. ACH is not for me right now. But somehow my gut tells me this one may be the MM winner. I like aluminum, and I like option chains. MM could do worse, I guess. I'm giving this chart last place in the top five.

Why do you think ACH is not bullish (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ACH) and what do you mean by that ACH should return to reality along Ch. SM?

[New-born baby]

Why do you think ACH is not bullish (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ACH) and what do you mean by that ACH should return to reality along Ch. SM?

The Chinese Stock Market is severely overbought and in need of a deep correction. ACH is a Chinese stock. If/when the Shaghai market deeply corrects, ACH will undoubtedly deeply correct, too. ACH's chart on the NYSE shows that ACH has already reached its PnF target, and is in "the Twilight Zone." By that I mean: no identifiable price target via chart analysis. That usually means only one thing: time for a correction.

MM is looking for a 15% move. On ACH, whose current price is $47.30, that is an additional $7.10, or a price target of $54.40. My view is that ACH is topping now, and may not make that price target. Also other charts are more bullish in his top five.

I'd like to read about your picks. Which ones do you like, and why?

[billyjoe]

New-born,
VSEC has a low beta (1.05) so is unlikely to tank shortly after being picked. It has virtually no debt despite being a small or maybe micro-cap (208 mil). Fewer than 5 million shares oustanding makes its low volatility even more of a plus. No major analysts follow it yet. Military contracts with army and navy comprise over 93% of business. Its price appreciation over the last 12 months is 7X the industry average. Income is 5X and sales 11X industry average. Price earnings ratio is right in line with peers.

---------------billyjoe

[Al1000]

The Chinese Stock Market is severely overbought and in need of a deep correction. ACH is a Chinese stock. If/when the Shaghai market deeply corrects, ACH will undoubtedly deeply correct, too. ACH's chart on the NYSE shows that ACH has already reached its PnF target, and is in "the Twilight Zone." By that I mean: no identifiable price target via chart analysis. That usually means only one thing: time for a correction.

MM is looking for a 15% move. On ACH, whose current price is $47.30, that is an additional $7.10, or a price target of $54.40. My view is that ACH is topping now, and may not make that price target. Also other charts are more bullish in his top five.

I'd like to read about your picks. Which ones do you like, and why?

I agree with you that CSM is overbought but I still believe that some of their stocks will be immune to its nearer correction. For exa. ACH looks really great, P/E is extremely low 3.5 and other technical data show bullish trend for a long period. Enterprise is healthy, dividends are ok....... Why ACH shouldnt be one of stocks which will avoid a market correction. You are saying that ACH will not make its price target. Why? Please, tell me with more technical arguments or any others non economical such as political ....whatever.

OK. I am new on NYSE. Actually, I am from EU and I trade a lot on balkan. I own MBT and MYL. MBT Mobile TeleSystems is one of the biggest global telecommunication companies. 90% of the profits is made on Russian and Ukraine market. They are expanding on Beloruss, Usbekistan and Turkmenistan market as well. Last two non-developed countries (only 4-10% people are using mobile) present newly growing area for MBT. Stock chart data looks great. Target P/E for 2008 is 11.15. They support Nokia as well.

MYL Mylan laboratories is leading generic pharmaceutical company (in next 5 years will become no1, before Tevo and Sandos. My opinion). In last two months MYL fought for Merck KGaA against Tevo Pharmaceuticals. They won. But the price for Merck KGaA was very high and many people said too high and decided to sell their stocks. MYL lost 12% in one day. I believe now is a good time to buy it for long period. Techical data are ok P/E=12,41, P/S=2,83, P/B=2,77. Company has extremelly good technology and patents. I know the last since I am coming from that field of profession.

Any comments?!

[New-born baby]

I agree with you that CSM is overbought but I still believe that some of their stocks will be immune to its nearer correction. For exa. ACH looks really great, P/E is extremely low 3.5 and other technical data show bullish trend for a long period. Enterprise is healthy, dividends are ok....... Why ACH shouldnt be one of stocks which will avoid a market correction. You are saying that ACH will not make its price target. Why? Please, tell me with more technical arguments or any others non economical such as political ....whatever.

OK. I am new on NYSE. Actually, I am from EU and I trade a lot on balkan. I own MBT and MYL. MBT Mobile TeleSystems is one of the biggest global telecommunication companies. 90% of the profits is made on Russian and Ukraine market. They are expanding on Beloruss, Usbekistan and Turkmenistan market as well. Last two non-developed countries (only 4-10% people are using mobile) present newly growing area for MBT. Stock chart data looks great. Target P/E for 2008 is 11.15. They support Nokia as well.

MYL Mylan laboratories is leading generic pharmaceutical company (in next 5 years will become no1, before Tevo and Sandos. My opinion). In last two months MYL fought for Merck KGaA against Tevo Pharmaceuticals. They won. But the price for Merck KGaA was very high and many people said too high and decided to sell their stocks. MBT lost 12% in one day. I believe now is a good time to buy it for long period. Techical data are ok P/S=12,41, P/S=2,83, P/B=2,77. Company has extremelly good technology and patents. I know the last since I am coming from that field of profession.

Any comments?!

Thanks for the info. ACH: I was unaware of its P/E--very impressive. The weekly RSI shows overbought for two months, and sooner or later, that corrects. The Point and Figure chart says "target reached with no new identifiable target." Both of these factors are technical, and indicate that ACH may have topped. The daily chart shows a gap up, with a corresponding gap fill the very next day, followed by another gap up with a doji--a technical indication that there is much over head resistance, ie, selling.

I like your recommends. THANK YOU! I'll check the charts and post on them here.

[New-born baby]

Mbt:

Weekly shows a price target of $68 via Dow Theory; Point and Figure (PnF) says $66. Nearing a top? Has been a strong runner thus far

MYL:PnF says she's headed to $12 . . . from the current price of $18.05. Not a bullish chart by any means.

[New-born baby]

MYL chart

Shot at 2007-07-07

[IIC]

I agree with you that CSM is overbought but I still believe that some of their stocks will be immune to its nearer correction. For exa. ACH looks really great, P/E is extremely low 3.5 and other technical data show bullish trend for a long period. Enterprise is healthy, dividends are ok....... Why ACH shouldnt be one of stocks which will avoid a market correction. You are saying that ACH will not make its price target. Why? Please, tell me with more technical arguments or any others non economical such as political ....whatever.

OK. I am new on NYSE. Actually, I am from EU and I trade a lot on balkan. I own MBT and MYL. MBT Mobile TeleSystems is one of the biggest global telecommunication companies. 90% of the profits is made on Russian and Ukraine market. They are expanding on Beloruss, Usbekistan and Turkmenistan market as well. Last two non-developed countries (only 4-10% people are using mobile) present newly growing area for MBT. Stock chart data looks great. Target P/E for 2008 is 11.15. They support Nokia as well.

MYL Mylan laboratories is leading generic pharmaceutical company (in next 5 years will become no1, before Tevo and Sandos. My opinion). In last two months MYL fought for Merck KGaA against Tevo Pharmaceuticals. They won. But the price for Merck KGaA was very high and many people said too high and decided to sell their stocks. MBT lost 12% in one day. I believe now is a good time to buy it for long period. Techical data are ok P/S=12,41, P/S=2,83, P/B=2,77. Company has extremelly good technology and patents. I know the last since I am coming from that field of profession.

Any comments?!

Ahh...But the corruption in China...It will catch up sooner or later...Not that I don't think that there is corruption in the USA...But China...It is a way of life and it will hit many industries...And if it does all at once...I hope you have your parachute handy...Actually, my largest holding is MR...But I'm more of a risk taker than most...Best, Doug(IIC)