The Spirit of '76 Top 5

[New-born baby]

Al1000, curious about your ACH entry, it is already at the very top of it's two year Linear Regression Channel, which is one standard deviation. I know it can go to two standard deviations or higher but with 66% odds saying it is around a high, you must know something. Investing is a probobality game to me and I like the odds greatly in my favor although there is still no assurance of a winner. I like to buy when it approaches two deviations down and set trailing stops when it goes above one standard deviation. Good luck on your trade!

Papa,
Would you post a chart of your work here? And talk to me about "deviations". I'd be interested to read more.

Thanks!

[Al1000]

Top five week results:

From 9.7.2007(open) to 13.7.2007(close)
VSEC 42.99 47.58 +10.67%
ACH 47.72 47.57 -0.31%
FTK 65.81(split 1:2) 31.48 -4.33%
DWSN 60.95 58.02 -4.80%
MTOX 30.32 27.34 -9.83%

[jiesen]

Vsec

apparently VSEC was the correct choice, so far. (pats self on back)

[New-born baby]

apparently VSEC was the correct choice, so far. (pats self on back)

Don't pat yourselves until the 15% marker has been achieved. It's safer that way.

[Al1000]

I will buy one of these stocks next week:


ACH DWSN FTK MTOX VSEC


Which one do you like....and why?

Among Top 5 is MTOX. Today -20%. Comments?

[New-born baby]

Among Top 5 is MTOX. Today -20%. Comments?

Chart broke down. Bearish target.

[spikefader]

The only one I don't like is VSEC.

Strongest to weakest: DWSN +83, MTOX +80, ACH +77, FTK +63, VSEC +47

Which one would I buy tomorrow? FTEK with 4% risk.

lol The only one that did well is VSEC! ACH is holding up there.....and reckon it's almost time fer it to run again.

[New-born baby]

lol The only one that did well is VSEC! ACH is holding up there.....and reckon it's almost time fer it to run again.

How long are you going to wear that bear suit? You've upset the whole market! lol

Yeah, MM chose the right one.

[IIC]

[quote=New-born baby;84951]How long are you going to wear that bear suit? You've upset the whole market! lol

quote]


The longer the better IMO...Market is Toast

[spikefader]

How long are you going to wear that bear suit? You've upset the whole market! lol

Yeah, MM chose the right one.

I dunno know, NB. Maybe longer than many would prefer. At the moment I reckon my bearishness is supported by at least a few technicals such as the following chart as well as the INDU weekly count that calls for impulse 2 down.



But at the same time as the above things, there is the potential for VIX to make a weekly close over 18.00 again soon.......and if you recall, this is a significant event that has recently seen a significant bottom put in within 2 weeks of that. So perhaps we will just see 2 or 3 weeks of impulse selling??? In any event, I would strongly recommend people avoid getting too excited about buying current levels. Buy any deep discount that we see in the next several weeks.

[New-born baby]

I dunno know, NB. Maybe longer than many would prefer. At the moment I reckon my bearishness is supported by at least a few technicals such as the following chart as well as the INDU weekly count that calls for impulse 2 down.



But at the same time as the above things, there is the potential for VIX to make a weekly close over 18.00 again soon.......and if you recall, this is a significant event that has recently seen a significant bottom put in within 2 weeks of that. So perhaps we will just see 2 or 3 weeks of impulse selling??? In any event, I would strongly recommend people avoid getting too excited about buying current levels. Buy any deep discount that we see in the next several weeks.

Thanks Spike for the analysis. That is very much appreciated. I'll be waiting in the wings until I see your bull avatar again!

[IIC]

NBB...OK...we see Spike's Technical Analysis...But for the life of me I cannot understand why people don't realize the US economy is in Intermediate Term Shambles...A bubble waiting to burst...Oh well

[riverbabe]

I dunno know, NB. Maybe longer than many would prefer. At the moment I reckon my bearishness is supported by at least a few technicals such as the following chart as well as the INDU weekly count that calls for impulse 2 down.



But at the same time as the above things, there is the potential for VIX to make a weekly close over 18.00 again soon.......and if you recall, this is a significant event that has recently seen a significant bottom put in within 2 weeks of that. So perhaps we will just see 2 or 3 weeks of impulse selling??? In any event, I would strongly recommend people avoid getting too excited about buying current levels. Buy any deep discount that we see in the next several weeks.

Good old Marty Chenard shows your VIX chart too (www.stocktiming.com) but isn't worried because he says there is so much liquidity coming into the market right now that it is offsetting the negativity of the VIX. River

[spikefader]

Good old Marty Chenard shows your VIX chart too (www.stocktiming.com) but isn't worried because he says there is so much liquidity coming into the market right now that it is offsetting the negativity of the VIX. River

Well one truth I've learned over the years is ze market is sometimes going to do what ze market wants to do, sometimes regardless of the technicals or fundamental perceptions. Is there ever an expert in these matters? Who has the best performance? How reliable is it? Are they correct on this occasion? What are they failing to see? What are they letting their emotions control? Only the passage of time will confirm how good someone's technical (or fundamental) call has been. And perhaps by then most have forgotten it or don't care anymore, perhaps forever fascinated with whatever evidence supports their current bias and desires.

I do know that regardless of one's bias at this time, and any other, past or future, it's only through observance of strict discipline and risk control that ye will save ye bloomers and/or enjoy maximum long-term profits.

I am blessed to enjoy a certain degree of accuracy with broad market direction, as I'm sure Marty is. And we all have our own pace and rythym and motives and methods, don't we? And if I'm wrong, then I'm usually nay wrong fer long. And if that be the case this time, I'll soon be a bull again.

And speaking of bubbles, Doug, me parrot reckons that when a market irrationally ignores both technicals and fundamentals it be walkin' th' bubble plank. Might be a long plank or a short one........but in the end it still be a plank and thar be a drop at the end. How long be this plank? The Kraken probably knows......

Submerged under sunny skies and winds at our backs,
Underneath green oceans and smiles from the crew,
Below our very consciousness as sailors and hacks,
And while the good Captain rests, perhaps dreaming anew,
The Kraken sleepeth.......... Spike, 2007

[riverbabe]

Well one truth I've learned over the years is ze market is sometimes going to do what ze market wants to do, sometimes regardless of the technicals or fundamental perceptions. Is there ever an expert in these matters? Who has the best performance? How reliable is it? Are they correct on this occasion? What are they failing to see? What are they letting their emotions control? Only the passage of time will confirm how good someone's technical (or fundamental) call has been. And perhaps by then most have forgotten it or don't care anymore, perhaps forever fascinated with whatever evidence supports their current bias and desires.

I do know that regardless of one's bias at this time, and any other, past or future, it's only through observance of strict discipline and risk control that ye will save ye bloomers and/or enjoy maximum long-term profits.

I am blessed to enjoy a certain degree of accuracy with broad market direction, as I'm sure Marty is. And we all have our own pace and rythym and motives and methods, don't we? And if I'm wrong, then I'm usually nay wrong fer long. And if that be the case this time, I'll soon be a bull again.

And speaking of bubbles, Doug, me parrot reckons that when a market irrationally ignores both technicals and fundamentals it be walkin' th' bubble plank. Might be a long plank or a short one........but in the end it still be a plank and thar be a drop at the end. How long be this plank? The Kraken probably knows......

Submerged under sunny skies and winds at our backs,
Underneath green oceans and smiles from the crew,
Below our very consciousness as sailors and hacks,
And while the good Captain rests, perhaps dreaming anew,
The Kraken sleepeth.......... Spike, 2007

Spike, my love. You have achieved with this one post what no one has ever achieved before!!! I have printed it out in its entirety and am going to FRAME IT and hang it directly over my computer screen!!! May the River gods go with you forever! May the Kraken never get you! May you continue in Market and all other Wisdom all the days of your life! And a poet! (Your feet show it, they're "Longfellows." Yeah, I know...) I hate to fawn, but that was a pretty darn good post! Riverbabe