1998 all over again?

[riverbabe]

good job on your short...next step is the 64 swing point which we should blow by based on how MER went up compared to how we are coming back down....Also , look at buying some QID...i believe they are going up too 58...a good tool in this market.

cheers

Have some. Thanks for asking.

[mystiky]

if MER hits $40, what about GS or MS?

GS $150 amd MS $40 ?

[New-born baby]

Any thoughts on FBR. Penney land their next stop or is this as close to their bottom as they will travel. Marlin

They may go all the way to $Zero. Next stop is $3.50-, so I'd not even consider a long here.

[New-born baby]

if MER hits $40, what about GS or MS?

GS $150 amd MS $40 ?

GS short to at least $145 or lower . . .
MS: short to $50 or $47.50 or lower . . .

Nice, ugly, short charts.

[billyjoe]

GS short to at least $145 or lower . . .
MS: short to $50 or $47.50 or lower . . .

Nice, ugly, short charts.

I can't believe I sold GS @215. It must have been divine intervention. They are listed as a +5% owner of AHM, 3.6 million shares valued at 98 million. GS asset management,that is. That's quite a loss and the tip of the iceberg. These guys were smoking big cigars and patting themselves on the back just a few weeks ago.

---------billyjoe

[spikefader]

MER could drop to 40, this is ugly

And pigs could fly if we smoked enough kraken poop. Buy this dip seems pretty logical to me.

....watch for LEH to trade down to $21......

$21.00???? Where are you pulling these numbers from? Pretty unlikely. In fact, buying this dip to look for yearly 'b' up seems pretty safe.


Am I the only one at this forum looking for a significant market bounce in the next week of so?? Yes, we may sell hard this week....but it's a very good buying opportunity imo.

[IIC]

I can't believe I sold GS @215. It must have been divine intervention. They are listed as a +5% owner of AHM, 3.6 million shares valued at 98 million. GS asset management,that is. That's quite a loss and the tip of the iceberg. These guys were smoking big cigars and patting themselves on the back just a few weeks ago.

---------billyjoe

They are all a bunch of crooks

[spikefader]

GS short to at least $145 or lower . . .
Nice, ugly, short charts.

Hi New-born. Have t' disagree wit' ya on this. I'm lookin' for a bounce soon in this one too.



I honestly thing all you guys are ignoring some significant TA that calls for a broad market bounce.

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Spike. Sure, it'll bounce sometime . . . but when? Yeah, I see that new bull suit yer wearin'. But who else has it on? I think these brokerages will see further losses. And prices don't drop straight down, do they? No, they sawtooth their way down. That's what I am expecting.

GS is below its 50 & 200 day, with a PnF target of $144. And it just fell through support Friday. So I expect it to retest the new resistance, and fall further.

[IIC]

Spike...IMO...News trumps technicals...I don't know what the news will be...But my gut tells me that Bear Stearns is just the tip of the iceberg.

[IIC]

REPO Pool is over $142 bil...What will it take???...Of course the pullback from $155 bil a couple weeks ago probably had something to do with this p/b...But the money has to stop...We are double what the Repo Pool should be IMO

[billyjoe]

Doug,
In your opinion how long until there is a demand again for non commercial real estate?

---------billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
In your opinion how long until there is a demand again for non commercial real estate?

---------billyjoe

I'd look at a 9 year cycle...we are almost 2 years into a downtrend...Maybe 1 1/2 years...However, it depends on the area...some have not even felt the pain yet.

Apartment buildings...which I consider commercial...should remain hot because so many people are losing their houses...And they have to go somewhere.

But I really am surprised that homes in my area are keeping up with their price...However, they are staying on the market a lot longer than they were in 2005.

I was looking at home prices in different areas the other day...Ohio in general seems like quite a bargain.

[spikefader]

Thanks, Spike. Sure, it'll bounce sometime . . . but when? Yeah, I see that new bull suit yer wearin'. But who else has it on?

Well you know the saying, NB......the minority view is often the most accurate! So if there are more bear suits in sight...and lots of fear....that's when ye should be questioning it all.

But frankly, I'm surprised that there is less talk at this forum about weekly VIX levels and potential short-term consequences. At one stage you were all over that stuff....does it no longer matter?

But now that you mention th' bull suit, I want to clarify that I do expect volatile selling this week.....so the bull suit is premature by several days. But I'm looking for August 10 as the date we should have a bottom by. How red could this week be?? Sure; it could be deep red. But that'll be when the smart money jumps on board for a very tradeable ride North.

[New-born baby]

Well you know the saying, NB......the minority view is often the most accurate! So if there are more bear suits in sight...and lots of fear....that's when ye should be questioning it all.

But frankly, I'm surprised that there is less talk at this forum about weekly VIX levels and potential short-term consequences. At one stage you were all over that stuff....does it no longer matter?

But now that you mention th' bull suit, I want to clarify that I do expect volatile selling this week.....so the bull suit is premature by several days. But I'm looking for August 10 as the date we should have a bottom by. How red could this week be?? Sure; it could be deep red. But that'll be when the smart money jumps on board for a very tradeable ride North.

Spike,
All you say is true. Lots of bear suits = time to stampede.
No VIX talk from me (although it matters a great deal) due to time issues. I am so busy that the market is a very low priority for me. You may have noticed that I completely dropped my threads here, and simply play POTW and a few posts occasionally here and there. However, I would like to see your thoughts on it right here I'll jump in with you when you say the time is right.