Predict Next Week

[New-born baby]

any possibility this could be a counterpunch by the bulls to the bears yesterday. or is it already made up that this market is going down.
are you and jim smith in the same camp?

BillyJoe,
Wild swings in the market are indicative of a dying bull.

[IIC]

any possibility this could be a counterpunch by the bulls to the bears yesterday. or is it already made up that this market is going down.
are you and jim smith in the same camp?

On this issue I guess we are

[skiracer]

BillyJoe,
Wild swings in the market are indicative of a dying bull.

i'm not sure which way it is going to go and am not leaning in any direction. How about posting a chart supporting what you see happening if you feel it is going down. anyone. Doug or NewBorn, or anyone feeling it is going down from here. something, anything supporting your feelings.

[IIC]

i'm not sure which way it is going to go and am not leaning in any direction. How about posting a chart supporting what you see happening if you feel it is going down. anyone. Doug or NewBorn, or anyone feeling it is going down from here. something, anything supporting your feelings.

I believe the credit problems are in their infancy and that we are in for a rough road which will spread to various areas besides Real Estate.

I've also watched the Accumulation/Distribution numbers on a downward slide for months...But then that is from IBD...So who knows?

I'm not gonna tell you that I absolutely know we will correct quite a bit further...Only time will tell.

[skiracer]

so then is it a toss up or what as to what direction it is going to go in. NewBorn seems to think that this up and down action is evident of a big new leg down. I'm not sure it is. the housing and credit markets are in a funk because of the subprime lending but other parts of the economy are quite strong right now. i see alot of stocks that are nice buys right now after this latest correction.

[IIC]

so then is it a toss up or what as to what direction it is going to go in. NewBorn seems to think that this up and down action is evident of a big new leg down. I'm not sure it is. the housing and credit markets are in a funk because of the subprime lending but other parts of the economy are quite strong right now. i see alot of stocks that are nice buys right now after this latest correction.

It is always a toss up...I would agree w/ NBB's statement....I think subprime is only the beginning...Nice stocks???...Post your list because I don't see a whole lot that looks good...IBD claims the IBD 100 is a proxy for the market...At least that's what I've read 3x in their Big Picture the last week...Perhaps there are other proxies...I know you don't look at these...But my Today's MoMo lists and my IIC 100 New Highs lists keep getting smaller...The IBD 100 New Highs list, which I follow but don't post, is shrinking just as fast....The overall market NH's are REALLY bad lately...Since 7/19 in fact.

Both the IIC and IBD 100's consider fundies...Both are not doing well the last few weeks...Obviously neither list can really predict what will happen...But I'd keep an eye on what is happening to Quality...And IMO quality isn't doing very well of late.

[New-born baby]

so then is it a toss up or what as to what direction it is going to go in. NewBorn seems to think that this up and down action is evident of a big new leg down. I'm not sure it is. the housing and credit markets are in a funk because of the subprime lending but other parts of the economy are quite strong right now. i see alot of stocks that are nice buys right now after this latest correction.

The wild swings are indicative of a top. However, the bull has not died just yet, and perhaps will recover. I think not . . . but technically, the bull is not yet dead. A corrective phase is progressing. Watch for a bottom to the correction by tracking the INDEXES. You can run the FIBONACCI numbers and see if any ALIGN with obvious support areas and watch those trend lines. I am sitting on the sidelines right now, because I do not yet see a bottom forming.

[IIC]

Bearn Stears, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs are trading at junk status...Auto sales mostly down double digits...Advance/Decline Issues are negative...

My question...What is so Bullish here?????????????

[MEA_1956]

Best Bull

At the present time my best BULL is HBI, It my start to falter here but I hope not. In at the spin off, a gift from Sara. Marlin

[MEA_1956]

Etf

At the present time I have a small amount in the XLP, XLB, & XLE which are not showing me any larger selloff then the market in genral. As time marches on we may retrack this statement and support the bear side of life. If I do support the BARE side of life I hope they are DD's Not AA's Marlin

[IIC]

I think program trading kicked in late yesterday to try to keep the indices above the 200sma

[IIC]

Ski...actually Jim Smith's prediction is more dire than mine...he thinks we test last summer's lows...I doubt that...but I would not be surprised to see us test last March's lows

[IIC]

I think the last time the Naz closed down over 100 points was on 9/17/01...The worst Naz % drop was -11.35% on 10/19/87

[spikefader]

Ski...actually Jim Smith's prediction is more dire than mine...he thinks we test last summer's lows...I doubt that...but I would not be surprised to see us test last March's lows

I honestly think in the short-term ye are too early/on the wrong side of it, Doug. There's very likely a tradeable rally from current levels. Are you still holding QID or establishing new positions based on your bias? Personally, I'm getting heavy long over the next 6 days. And I'll do that whether we dip substantially from here or head off into green waters. What I'm less sure of is how long the rally might last. But I do think it's tradeable.

[IIC]

I honestly think in the short-term ye are too early/on the wrong side of it, Doug. There's very likely a tradeable rally from current levels. Are you still holding QID or establishing new positions based on your bias? Personally, I'm getting heavy long over the next 6 days. And I'll do that whether we dip substantially from here or head off into green waters. What I'm less sure of is how long the rally might last. But I do think it's tradeable.

Well...it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Yes...I own QID...Obviously I screwed up that trade...But I've made a lot more on the CwH trades I've been making since April.

I'm not predicting a crash or anything but the weekly Naz chart looks pretty bad to me ...As of yesterday's close:

http://img508.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nazweeklylb0.png

EDIT: I still have 1/2 of MR...hoping for a run into eps so I can either sell 1/4 or bail...paid 30.84.

I'm going to be very bsy the next few weeks and then I'm going on vacation from 8/24 to 9/1...so if I do anything it will only be very short term.