Interesting Stocks

[jiesen]

You sees? Now's the chance to get back in at under 160.

If you were patient enough to wait until today, you could now get SPCX for the same price you could on IPO day, right around 151.
SPCX, anyone? Of course, it's still likely to continue to drop, while the AI balloon continues to hiss out all its hot air.

[BlueWolf]

Well, I took advantage of recent dips to pick up some shares in two of the companies involved in robotics that I mentioned, TER and SYM. I view these as (hopefully) long term holds as I think the robotic revolution, while well into its early stages, has a little ways to go before the big wave comes. I don’t hold stinkers, though, so if either of these turn sour, I’ll dump them and look for a better entry. I already own some TSLA, which I’ve had for a while now. I think TSLA is going to play a big part in the robotics revolution.

I was tempted to grab some SERV, but there were just too many red flags including a serious cash burn problem. Another company I had an interest in was ISRG, who holds a dominant position in surgical robotics. The chart just doesn’t look ready, though. I think valuation concerns are keeping the share price down even though they’re growing their business at a decent clip. There was a recall earlier this year, and that could be having a negative effect too. They’re set to report earnings on July 16. A big move, one way or the other, could be afoot. If I were bold, I’d pick up a few shares before earnings, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering it despite the chart. It all depends on my intuition at this point. Most of the numbers say Yes, but the valuation and chart say No.

The biggest barrier is that most of the robotics companies that are really interesting are still privately owned. I’ve done some research and there are some very cool companies doing some amazing robotics research like Neurolink, Apptronik, Figure, and Agility Robotics. I found a list of over a dozen robotics startups here in California alone. The problem is, figuring out who the winners are going to be is a daunting task, but wildly worth it if you choose wisely. In some cases there are vehicles for buying pre-IPO shares of these outfits, but the risks are obviously tremendous. Figure is one company for which I might make an exception, though. They have some awesome technology. Check them out at Figure.ai.

[BlueWolf]

If you were patient enough to wait until today, you could now get SPCX for the same price you could on IPO day, right around 151.
SPCX, anyone? Of course, it's still likely to continue to drop, while the AI balloon continues to hiss out all its hot air.

[*I tried to post this before, but it was flagged as spam for some reason. Sorry if this ends up getting posted twice.]

My leveraged entry cost is actually around $145. I have no reason to bail on the position, and I don’t want to add any shares because, in my mind, it’s a very speculative buy for long term returns at this point. If it dips significantly from here, I’ll reassess. If I still believe in the long term prospects of the company, I might add to my position. If I believe the circumstances have changed significantly for the worse, I’ll dump it. Sitting here trying to micro calculate every up and down move, however, is not something I do. Nobody can do that with 100% accuracy. I took a shot when it IPO’d betting that it would spike up, and I won, but there was a risk/reward associated with the trade and I could have just as easily lost.

[jiesen]

[*I tried to post this before, but it was flagged as spam for some reason. Sorry if this ends up getting posted twice.]

My leveraged entry cost is actually around $145. I have no reason to bail on the position, and I don’t want to add any shares because, in my mind, it’s a very speculative buy for long term returns at this point. If it dips significantly from here, I’ll reassess. If I still believe in the long term prospects of the company, I might add to my position. If I believe the circumstances have changed significantly for the worse, I’ll dump it. Sitting here trying to micro calculate every up and down move, however, is not something I do. Nobody can do that with 100% accuracy. I took a shot when it IPO’d betting that it would spike up, and I won, but there was a risk/reward associated with the trade and I could have just as easily lost.

That's a great mindset to have, and one I need to keep trying to have with my own positions. It's difficult though, as our human nature always wants to try to game the system and throw the dice at what we see as sure bets.... but there's no such thing as that.

[BlueWolf]

Did anyone pick up any SKHYV today?

[jiesen]

Did anyone pick up any SKHYV today?

Nope, but that one (now SKHY) would have been a good one to pick up yesterday at 152.... it's over 188 right now!

Also, if you missed the SPCX IPO you can get as many shares as you want now for 138, only $3 more than the IPO price...

[jiesen]

And now SPCX is below the 135 IPO price, so pretty much everyone holding shares they bought at the IPO or later is under water. I think we're going to see a lot of selling in SPCX right about now.... might be a good time to pick some up when the bottom hits, if you like timing bottoms! SKHY is going down right along with it, too...

[jiesen]

Now SPCX had gone from 195 to 125 in one month... it's got some real momentum now, in the down direction! Where will this bottom, anyone have a crystal ball to give a target on that?

[BlueWolf]

Now SPCX had gone from 195 to 125 in one month... it's got some real momentum now, in the down direction! Where will this bottom, anyone have a crystal ball to give a target on that?

Nobody has any crystal balls here. You seem pretty infatuated with this stock so the only real question is, are you buying here?

[jiesen]

Nope, I am holding ECHO instead, which I'll hold for a year or two, when I expect I'll see a double or triple from here. Pretty much locked in on that play, and not adding risk with SPCX on top of it. Only having some buyer's remorse now, seeing that IPO go from over 200 to under 130 now, taking ECHO right on down with it.

[BlueWolf]

Nope, I am holding ECHO instead, which I'll hold for a year or two, when I expect I'll see a double or triple from here. Pretty much locked in on that play, and not adding risk with SPCX on top of it. Only having some buyer's remorse now, seeing that IPO go from over 200 to under 130 now, taking ECHO right on down with it.

If you truly believe in a stock for the long term, you have to be ready to live with some draw down. Not sure I see the connection between SPCX and ECHO, though. SPCX’s business is centered in three areas: Starlink, launch services, and xAI. You could make a case that ECHO is somewhat competitive with Starlink in the broadband arena, although I think they serve different markets, but that’s it. What makes these two stocks so tightly linked in your mind?

[jiesen]

If you truly believe in a stock for the long term, you have to be ready to live with some draw down. Not sure I see the connection between SPCX and ECHO, though. SPCX’s business is centered in three areas: Starlink, launch services, and xAI. You could make a case that ECHO is somewhat competitive with Starlink in the broadband arena, although I think they serve different markets, but that’s it. What makes these two stocks so tightly linked in your mind?

The fact that ECHO is holding (a locked up) chunk of SPCX stock, equal to more than its market cap. They sold spectrum to SPCX last year for about 260M shares of SPCX, which they can sell next year. That's a 3% share of a $2T company (assuming SPCX goes back up next year).

[jiesen]

I had the idea that when SPCX IPO'd that ECHO would get a big bounce on the IPO along with SPCX, but that didn't happen.... So I'm waiting for the eventual realization of value in the SPCX business to get my money from this ECHO trade.

[BlueWolf]

I see your connection now, but why not just buy SPCX stock directly instead buying shares of a proxy that was basically a failed business before obtaining the SPCX shares during the sale of part of its wireless spectrum? Aren’t you basically diluting the value of the SPCX shares with the rest of ECHO?

[jiesen]

No, not at all. The shares of SPCX that ECHO owns is worth more than the market cap of the company, so after you account for that value, you are getting the entire Echostar business for free (if it's worth anything, then that's a bonus). Could be that SPCX isn't worth much either, but that's the risk you take buying either of these.

But to the first point, when I bought ECHO it was prior to the SPCX IPO, when I wasn't assured a $135 entry. Assuming it opens at 150 and continues to go up from there, ECHO would have been a good way to get in at a good price before the IPO launched. Now that the SPCX shares are cheap, that turns out to not be the better deal, but you only know that in hindsight. Yes, I could sell ECHO now and buy cheap SPCX shares, but I still think ECHO is the better deal of the two, and don't want to switch lanes midstream...