Portfolio of the week - 2008

[skiracer]

Skiracer, maybe you can help me, 'cause I am having a little difficulty understanding your scoring system. Are you treating Jae16's two postitions this week as though he were two different people? In other words, if you combine his two scores he has something like 2.3%, but they are separated as though there are two different players. Did I miss something in how this is set up? Is it now a pick of the day instead of a pick of the week? Just want to understand the lay of the land.

Rob,
It's two separate trades but my single mistake. In my haste last night I forgot to subtract the negative percentage from the positive percentage. Actually changes the standings. Sorry my fault. I'll make the adjustments later on this morning. Good eyes there Rob. Always good to have others watching my back. Home at night after work and a couple of puffs, a beer or two, or a couple of glasses of wine and I'm liable to or capable of writing down anything on that scorecard. Thanks. It takes a good old scorekeeper to see through the sheet and pick up the errors.
Boy, Jae picked up that miscue of mine missing his exit and re-entry on MBI the other day but this one was right out there in front of him and not a word. Jae?

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Give me DOCX long thanks

---------billyjoe

Ski,
I'll come clean. As you can see I was long DOCX not short. This makes a monumental change in the standings.

-------------billyjoe

[Rob]

Thanks, Ski. And I won't even ask what you're puffing on in the evening hours.

[skiracer]

Thanks, Ski. And I won't even ask what you're puffing on in the evening hours.

And I would never offer it but I have a friend who is a Cuban national and his mother and father and other relatives either go or communicate with one another all the time and they get the Cuban cigars plus the rum. When I was just a kid my dad would fly down to Guantanemo at least once a month when we lived in Key West and would take me with him all the time. He smoked cigars bigtime and had cases of the Cubans and they would bring back 55 gal. drums of the rum. I think now if you are a national and have relatives there you can go back and forth a number of times per year or maybe it's send money down there and relatives can send things back. Don't know for sure. Farm grown Humboldt from other friends with the other thing. Funny how something will stick with you for a lifetime. My fondness actually started in Southeast Asia in 65. Like napalm you grow to love it in the morning. So I blame that one on the govt. But it has never been a problem. There were times during firefights and one would be burning. And certainly it has never been a problem in civilian life as I am a fine upstanding citizen and interacting brilliantly I might add. Now most of you know more about me than you should.
Most of you now see that I made an error on the scorecard. I know it must reflect on my coherence and focus when these errors appear. I want you all to realize that I only do it to make sure that someone is watching and at least reading some of this stuff. It has nothing to do with my abilities or focus. I'm just trying to keep everyone participating focused on the scorecard and the game. You're doing fine. Some better than others.
The latest one involved Jae16 again. I didn't subtract the two percentages from one another to get the real +/- percentage from his two trades. Bigtime difference in the percentages and thus the standings. You can either back the standing up yourselves or wait for me to do it with tonight's scorecard. Hopefully I'll get tonight's straight. I'm having a good time with it and I hope you guys are to. I don't think the errors are any big deal and it's certainly not like someone is shooting back at you.

[Websman]

Now if only the Euro could be persuaded not to kick some Yankee @$$ too! To put things in perspective, my glorious return this week (until now) amounts to a 0.4% gain compared to the close last Friday, and a -30.5% loss compared to the Friday before. Still hanging in!

Regards,

Karel

The exchange rate killed my annual trip to Europe. I can't afford to go anymore.

[jiesen]

And I would never offer it but I have a friend who is a Cuban national and his mother and father and other relatives either go or communicate with one another all the time and they get the Cuban cigars plus the rum. When I was just a kid my dad would fly down to Guantanemo at least once a month when we lived in Key West and would take me with him all the time. He smoked cigars bigtime and had cases of the Cubans and they would bring back 55 gal. drums of the rum. I think now if you are a national and have relatives there you can go back and forth a number of times per year or maybe it's send money down there and relatives can send things back. Don't know for sure. Farm grown Humboldt from other friends with the other thing. Funny how something will stick with you for a lifetime. My fondness actually started in Southeast Asia in 65. Like napalm you grow to love it in the morning. So I blame that one on the govt. But it has never been a problem. There were times during firefights and one would be burning. And certainly it has never been a problem in civilian life as I am a fine upstanding citizen and interacting brilliantly I might add. Now most of you know more about me than you should.
Most of you now see that I made an error on the scorecard. I know it must reflect on my coherence and focus when these errors appear. I want you all to realize that I only do it to make sure that someone is watching and at least reading some of this stuff. It has nothing to do with my abilities or focus. I'm just trying to keep everyone participating focused on the scorecard and the game. You're doing fine. Some better than others.
The latest one involved Jae16 again. I didn't subtract the two percentages from one another to get the real +/- percentage from his two trades. Bigtime difference in the percentages and thus the standings. You can either back the standing up yourselves or wait for me to do it with tonight's scorecard. Hopefully I'll get tonight's straight. I'm having a good time with it and I hope you guys are to. I don't think the errors are any big deal and it's certainly not like someone is shooting back at you.

Ski, you're awesome!

Allow me to point out one flaw in the system, though, to consider---
If someone takes a 20% loss ($100 becomes 80), then gains 25% he's back to even, not up 5%. Perhaps wild gyrations such as Jae's this week should not be allowed to produce a positive score for a negative performance... so I think your original score as it stands makes more sense than adding those percentages. (just my opinion)

Maybe to fix that, when I do this thing in March, I'll add a -10% penalty to picks that wind up below -20% in the end. I can call it the 'kick 'em when they're down' rule. (or I could just calculate the true % gain, but that would be no fun.)

[billyjoe]

Ski, you're awesome!

Allow me to point out one flaw in the system, though, to consider---
If someone takes a 20% loss ($100 becomes 80), then gains 25% he's back to even, not up 5%. Perhaps wild gyrations such as Jae's this week should not be allowed to produce a positive score for a negative performance... so I think your original score as it stands makes more sense than adding those percentages. (just my opinion)

Maybe to fix that, when I do this thing in March, I'll add a -10% penalty to picks that wind up below -20% in the end. I can call it the 'kick 'em when they're down' rule. (or I could just calculate the true % gain, but that would be no fun.)

Jiesen,
You're right. Although I know that's the case in real life where it takes a greater gain to get back to even than just duplicating the loss %, I never thought of it when figuring the % in a contest with more than one position. Sharp eye there , Jiesen. Of course that's only if we assume the original sum of money is being recycled in the contest not merely a whole new stash of $$ being used.

--------------billyjoe

[Websman]

Could it be possible? Could ROCM come out on top??

Stay tuned!!!

[skiracer]

Ski, you're awesome!

Allow me to point out one flaw in the system, though, to consider---
If someone takes a 20% loss ($100 becomes 80), then gains 25% he's back to even, not up 5%. Perhaps wild gyrations such as Jae's this week should not be allowed to produce a positive score for a negative performance... so I think your original score as it stands makes more sense than adding those percentages. (just my opinion)

Maybe to fix that, when I do this thing in March, I'll add a -10% penalty to picks that wind up below -20% in the end. I can call it the 'kick 'em when they're down' rule. (or I could just calculate the true % gain, but that would be no fun.)

Now I like the "kick 'em when they're down" rule.

[skiracer]

Ski, you're awesome!

Allow me to point out one flaw in the system, though, to consider---
If someone takes a 20% loss ($100 becomes 80), then gains 25% he's back to even, not up 5%. Perhaps wild gyrations such as Jae's this week should not be allowed to produce a positive score for a negative performance... so I think your original score as it stands makes more sense than adding those percentages. (just my opinion)

Maybe to fix that, when I do this thing in March, I'll add a -10% penalty to picks that wind up below -20% in the end. I can call it the 'kick 'em when they're down' rule. (or I could just calculate the true % gain, but that would be no fun.)

My logic is that if you start out the week in one position at a specific price and exit at a specific price then you are either up or down on that trade. Say you exit for a 7% loss.
If you enter another trade at a specific price and then exit at a specific price then what would your plus or minus percentage be for that week. On this trade you exit with a 15% gain.
If you are only dealing with the specific outcomes for any number of trades then is it the total percentage lost for trades ending up as losers, in this case 7% subtracted from the total percentage gained for trades ending up as winners, in this case 15% which would = 8% total gain.
Or do you subtract the two percentages and divide the remaining positive or negative balance by the total number of trades. In this case the remaining balance of 8% /2 =4% average gain per trade.
The operative word being per trade which would mean that the 4% would have to be multiplied by 2 to get the true gain of 8%.
I think you have to do it the 1st way and subtract the two or three or whatever percentages and the remaining balance is the percentage of gain or loss depending on which percentage is the larger of the total trades.
That is how I view it and how I thouht it was being done from the beginning of the start of being allowed to make two trades. The initial entry point is the constant point like 0 on a line from which
all exits and gains and loses are figured regardless of the price swings that occur before any exit is made. Only then can the percentage be figured for any positive or negative gain from that 0 point.
One thing for certain is that when you are the scorekeeper it will be your choice to do as you see fit and we will will all be supportive of whichever direction you take the game for your tour of duty.

[Rob]

Sell SPN

Buy SDD

[Rob]

Looks like the first sale on SPN at 13:44 is 39.40 (no trades during 13:43).

And first sale of SDD at 13:44 is 83.61.

[Karel]

Could it be possible? Could ROCM come out on top??

Stay tuned!!!

As I write this, you are in the lead by 1% or something.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

As I write this, you are in the lead by 1% or something.

Regards,

Karel

Hey SKI.....

If the rules allow....

I want to Sell- ROCM now! Before it drops!!!

[Websman]

I do believe that ROCM will fall, before the end of the day....