Should I buy Silver and Gold?

[skiracer]

what would trigger it to move in either direction one way or another in your mind. if the market goes down farther will silver move up or visa versa. anything specific you are looking for to happen.

[peanuts]

what would trigger it to move in either direction one way or another in your mind. if the market goes down farther will silver move up or visa versa. anything specific you are looking for to happen.

I don't think it has much to do with the market, but more to do with the dollar. In the long term, inflation will contribute to increased prices for all commodities. But, as a play against inflation, PMs have an added advantage for their historical recognizability as hedges.

The problem right now with PMs is the manipulation on the comex to hold gold and silver down. There are volumes to read and write about this, but a Google search for Ted Butler could give you more information about this than I can.

Technically, the short term outlook on silver seems like a bearish SHS, and a possible break below a weekly 4 ($11.75) which could take it as low as $8.10

[hags]

The Selloff in Silver - Essay by Jeremie Davinci

More to ponder:

The lesson of this most recent sell-off in silver. Why did it occur? And what should you learn from it?

Was there any obvious real world developments in actual silver supply and demand fundamentals that caused the price to decline? Not from anything I‘ve observed. Investor demand for real metal remained strong for every measurable category from strong ETF flows and record coin production and sales, to dramatic COMEX warehouse withdrawals, to continued disruptions in silver production and refining. Industrial consumption, admittedly weak, didn’t suddenly plunge anew in the last few weeks.

The explanation for the sell-off was the same as it ever was - price rigging on the COMEX. The big commercial shorts engineered the market lower to force leveraged longs on margin to sell, in order for the big shorts to buy back futures and other derivatives. Once again, the derivatives market tail wagged the real world price of silver dog. The good news is that the concentrated short position, while still large and manipulative, appears to be just about as low as it’s going to get, after this recent sell-off and the engineered decline over the past 8 months.

OK, if that’s the answer to why silver sold off, what’s the lesson? The lesson is that you must approach silver in such a way that you are not a victim of the manipulators. Buy for cash, don’t borrow or go on margin. You can’t prevent silver from dropping due to these rigged sell-offs, but you can prevent your silver from being taken away from you by forced margin call selling.

There’s a simple decision that every silver investor must make. You must decide whether you believe that the price of silver is manipulated or if it is functioning as a free market. This may sound weird at first, but if you decide that silver is not manipulated in price, but is trading free from control, you shouldn’t buy it or continue to hold it as an investment, in my opinion.

That’s because if you believe that the price of silver is free from an active downward manipulation, you must believe it is priced in accordance with everything you see around you. You must believe that consistent record demand for an item should result in sharply lower prices. You must be comfortable with delays and rising premiums being compatible with lower prices. You must be able to disregard documented proof of an unprecedented concentrated short position as unconvincing, and regulator stalling and double-talk as reassuring. You must see something I don’t see.

Instead, if you do see manipulation permeating the silver market, that is the best reason for buying. If you see manipulation, you see an artificially depressed price, a price screaming to be bought. If you see manipulation, you see a condition that can’t last, that must end. If you see manipulation, then everything makes sense about silver’s price history and circumstances. If you see manipulation, you know the usual commentary about silver is nonsense. If you see manipulation, you can understand the sharp sell-offs. If you see manipulation, you know it will end explosively to the upside.

Like the Madoff ponzi scam that lasted 13 years and 12 investigations, the termination of controls on the price of silver will be something we look back upon and marvel over how long it existed. Just make sure you are looking back while holding as much real silver as you can.

Visit Jeremie's YouTube Channel Here: http://www.youtube.com/user/davincij15

[skiracer]

interesting article and concept on this guys mind gags

[peanuts]

thanks Hags

Thank you, Hags.

It's nice to see some confirmation of what I've been preaching here. The crap going on at the Con-ex (yes, I spelled that the right way) will only cause a more explosive move to the upside when fully realized.

It is a win-win-win situation for silver:

1) the shorting gets realized, and price readjusts to proper price
2) economy improves and industrial buyers deplete inventory, leaving no room for shorts
3) economy gets worse, the dollar retracts further, precious metals react by going higher

I can't seem to find any reasons, other than manipulation, for the price to decrease in silver. I mean, barring a huge discovery of new silver, where is supply going to come from? The last big find of silver was in Nevada, in the late 1800's! That's when our money was silver. Now we have these clad tokens that are called money.

[billyjoe]

Talk about fishy.This one smells worse than the carp we put in the high school lockers in the 1960's. Janitors had to cut off many locks before locating the source. At least 3 gaps up and 3 gaps down in last 60 days with countless swings in the months preceding on SLV. If it gets to the 8's I'm filling the old root cellar.

------------billy

[skiracer]

Talk about fishy.This one smells worse than the carp we put in the high school lockers in the 1960's. Janitors had to cut off many locks before locating the source. At least 3 gaps up and 3 gaps down in last 60 days with countless swings in the months preceding on SLV. If it gets to the 8's I'm filling the old root cellar.

------------billy

i already own a substantial amount of silver billy and if it goes to 8 i'll be fighting with you to get my hands on as much as i can.

[dmk112]

Top?

Check out this SHS form on the GLD... its difficult to say where the neckline is due to the choppy price action but this thing is in trouble IMO...

[Peter Hansen]

A good gold indicator

Just read where a great GOLD undicator is the S&P 500/ GOLD PRICE. When the S&P 500 is EQUAL TO THE PRICE OF 1 OUNCE OF GOLD. You have a BULL market . Currently as I write the ratio is 852/911 or about .94. Which INDICATES , since it is less than 1 .....EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR GOLD.

[peanuts]

Just read where a great GOLD undicator is the S&P 500/ GOLD PRICE. When the S&P 500 is EQUAL TO THE PRICE OF 1 OUNCE OF GOLD. You have a BULL market . Currently as I write the ratio is 852/911 or about .94. Which INDICATES , since it is less than 1 .....EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR GOLD.

India may help the price of gold to go higher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akshaya_Tritiya

[dmk112]

I gotta say GLD now looks good...the weekly especially

[peanuts]

I gotta say GLD now looks good...the weekly especially

The GLD:SLV comparison suggests that silver is beter at the moment.

[dmk112]

The GLD:SLV comparison suggests that silver is beter at the moment.

Missed that move on SLV... I was pissed. I'm in GLD right now. Poised for a move.

[peanuts]

Missed that move on SLV... I was pissed. I'm in GLD right now. Poised for a move.

I'm glad you caught this latest move up. SLV and AGQ have been doing me well. Are you aware of UGL?

[peanuts]

I see SLV in a weekly 5 up and daily 4 down... It may reach $18 on the upcoming daily 5 up.

I'm not sure where the correction waves will take it after the 5 completes. The PM market is getting very interesting with the fall of the dollar. New highs in gold and silver are certainly not out of the question.