ALLI ==> The Penn Quaker Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    ALLI ==> The Penn Quaker Winner

    People get sick. People need help. Sometimes life spins out of control and people need help in order to help themselves get better. Now I’m not happy about the fact that people get sick. I am happy about the fact that there are companies out there that help these people. If these companies can make money doing so, that’s fine with me. If I can make money on the stocks of these companies, that’s even better.

    Today I bought Allion Healthcare (ALLI) at $7.25 per share. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 8.36. Here’s why I like ALLI:

    First of all, this is a GREAT looking chart. This stock just WANTS to go up:



    And why shouldn’t it? It’s revenues have grown annually for the last 4 years, as have its earnings. If a company grows its revenues and earnings, its stock price goes up. No big secret. This stock is up 186% off of its 52 week low and its PE is still only 15.

    Allion Healthcare is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on HIV/AIDS therapies. The company offers reimbursement expertise, arrangement of medication delivery and patient consulting services. It operated 11 specialty pharmacies under the MOMS Pharmacy brand in four states and had 15,610 patients at the end of 2007. Allion’s distribution centers are near metropolitan areas in New York, California, Florida, New Jersey and Washington, where the majority of patients live.

    Its services include MOMSPak prescription packaging; reimbursement, which assists in reimbursement processes; medications delivery arrangement; and information systems and prescription automation solutions that provide clinical data and enable the transmission of prescriptions. The company also offers specialized nursing services for the timely administration of medications as directed by physicians; specialized pharmacist services, including consultation with patients, physicians, and nurses to provide education, counseling, treatment coordination, and clinical information; and reimbursement experience that assists patients and healthcare providers with the complex reimbursement processes. In addition, Allion Healthcare, Inc., under the name of Biomed, provides specialty biopharmaceutical medications, focusing on the provision of services for intravenous immunoglobulin, blood clotting factor, and other therapies for chronic diseases.

    Current treatment for HIV/AIDS includes the use of several different drugs, or "combination therapies" that consist primarily of oral medications taken several times a day, usually outside a clinic or hospital setting. HIV/AIDS is still life-threatening, but can now be treated as a long-term, chronic disease. However, administration of the meds is confusing and the service that ALLI provides has been very well received by patients.


    So, not only is Allion a health care company, but it also provides the SERVICE that people need to get well. Organic growth in 1Q09 of the company's core Specialty HIV was 9% y/y, with the aggregate number of Specialty HIV prescriptions filled in 4Q08 tallying 265,455, an increase of 3.7% y/y.

    While HIV care is the core business for Allion, what intrigues me most about this company is that it is using its core business strategy of making sure patients understand the process of administering the medication and is leveraging this value added process to patients who require chronic care for other health conditions as well.

    Allion Healthcare now operates its business in two segments: Specialty HIV, which is the Company’s legacy specialty pharmacy and disease management business focused on HIV/AIDS patients, and Specialty Infusion, which is the Company’s recently acquired Biomed business specializing in biopharmaceutical medications and services for chronically ill patients. This strategy opens the door to a target market segment which would include any person who is chronically ill…or maybe someday, wellness programs for people who don’t want to become ill. Basically they take the administrative headache out of getting better.

    The company intends to continue expansion by raising revenue from its current product base, increasing the number of diseases served and offering more services. It’s open to acquisitions and wants more partnerships.

    So how is this strategy working?:
    • Fully Diluted EPS Guidance increased to $0.50 to $ 0.52 per share
    • Net sales increased 48% to $96.6 million from $65.3 million
    • Net income increased to $3.5 million compared to a net loss of $1.3 million
    • Earnings per diluted share increased to $0.13 compared to a net loss of $0.08
    Allion has another attraction: large pharmaceutical companies are prowling for specialty providers to help tame higher healthcare costs and cope with the needs of an aging population. Again, it’s the SERVICE which makes Allion stand apart.


    The future earnings picture looks really good. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects sales for 2009 to be as high as $477 million which will generate earnings of $0.65/share. At $0.65 per share and a PE of 15, this translates into a stock price of:

    $0.65 x 15 = $9.75…which is well past my sell target.

    What does the boss think?


    “With strong organic growth and two large community partnerships established on the West Coast, we believe our model will continue to deliver on both the revenue and EBITDA lines. Our commitment to both intercity clinics and state governments, were HIV has been ravaging people for years has positioned us as a leader in developing a treatment model for patients living with this diseases.”

    “The significant contribution to earnings made by our Specialty Infusion division in its first year of operations more than validates our expectations of a year ago,” said Michael Moran, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Allion Healthcare. “We believe that our diversified, national specialty pharmacy platform will continue to provide strong organic growth in our existing business lines.”

    “Our Biomed Specialty Infusion platform continues to perform better than we anticipated. Through the first nine month of performance since we acquire them, Biomed has grown to a $100 million company focused on a niche business with excellent clinical services and customer support.”
    “As we enter 2009, we believe that our national integrated specialty pharmacy platform is well positioned to take advantage of market opportunities that we see. By educating physicians and patients about the full service clinical model and the experienced reimbursement team, the sales group has shown they really understand the market and can deliver strong organic growth in this model. We believe they are fully integrated into our financial and operating reporting systems and look for a solid 2009 performance from Biomed. “

    I like companies that help people. I like making money investing in companies that help people. You? YOU? YOU???!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 08-18-2009, 12:47 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • yoyomama
    Senior Member
    • Mar 2009
    • 219

    #2
    Not much volume there but I'm tempted to jump because...well you ain't been wrong in who knows when!


    And also because my old man took a client to see Ali vs. Frazier 1...and dragged me along!

    Enjoyed your write up.

    Comment

    • RL
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 1215

      #3
      Thanks for the pick, I'm In at 7.38 I just sold aa at 10.65 Hope TRLG COMES THRU
      Ray Long

      Comment

      • steelman
        Senior Member
        • Jun 2008
        • 648

        #4
        stock price

        Does stock price always equal EPS x PE? Or if it doesn't, is that how you know when a company is a good buy or not?

        Thanks,
        Steelman
        Best,
        Steel
        It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

        Comment

        • mrmarket
          Administrator
          • Sep 2003
          • 5971

          #5
          Originally posted by steelman View Post
          Does stock price always equal EPS x PE? Or if it doesn't, is that how you know when a company is a good buy or not?

          Thanks,
          Steelman
          Well..think of it this way. If you wanted to buy a hot dog stand that makes $5,000/yr, what would you be willing to pay for it?
          =============================

          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5320

            #6
            I'm in at 7.4

            Just picked some up this morning at 7.4. This one is looking good!

            Comment

            • Websman
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 5545

              #7
              Originally posted by jiesen View Post
              Just picked some up this morning at 7.4. This one is looking good!
              7.42 and climbing...easy money!

              Comment

              • yosberk
                Junior Member
                • Feb 2007
                • 10

                #8
                ALLI what is the strategy

                I want to buy 2000 shears, should I buy it all at once or split the buy in four.
                Thanks.
                P.S Congratulation on your hot winning streak.

                Comment

                • wooish
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2008
                  • 499

                  #9
                  Most traders I know would buy them at 2 separate batches.

                  Comment

                  • zombie
                    Junior Member
                    • Jun 2009
                    • 27

                    #10
                    Less than market expectation results:

                    Second Quarter Highlights

                    * Net sales increased 15.3% to $100 million from $86 million
                    * Specialty HIV net sales increased 9.4% to $75 million
                    * Specialty Infusion net sales increased 38.0% to $25 million
                    * Adjusted EBITDA grew 25.7% to $9.2 million, or 9.3% of sales
                    * Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.14 from $0.11

                    Allion Healthcare (NASDAQ: ALLI - News) today announced second quarter net income of $3.2 million, or $0.11 per share. Second quarter results include expenses totaling $954,000, or $0.03 per share, related to the Company’s adoption of EITF 07-05, which requires the Company to “mark to market” its outstanding stock warrants, and stock-based compensation expense from the issuance of phantom stock units. Second quarter results also include the full effect of the 2,624,990 shares issued as a result of the Biomed earn out.

                    Comment

                    • skkinvest
                      Junior Member
                      • Dec 2008
                      • 8

                      #11
                      Whats going on with ALLI

                      is it bull or bear ?? i have noe idia ..even the dow dons't look or feel good




                      Comment

                      • yosberk
                        Junior Member
                        • Feb 2007
                        • 10

                        #12
                        skkinvest

                        I am wondering if I should buy more or just stick with what I have, I would love to get an update on ALLI.

                        Comment

                        • mrmarket
                          Administrator
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5971

                          #13
                          Originally posted by yosberk View Post
                          I am wondering if I should buy more or just stick with what I have, I would love to get an update on ALLI.
                          I still own it. What you do with your money is up to you.
                          =============================

                          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                          Comment

                          • wooish
                            Senior Member
                            • Dec 2008
                            • 499

                            #14
                            Mr. Market

                            You should copyright your statement "I still own it. What you do with your money is up to you." and "There is no advice" and of course "Mr. Market is huge"

                            Comment

                            • yosberk
                              Junior Member
                              • Feb 2007
                              • 10

                              #15
                              Alli really took it on the chin today

                              I bought at 6.65 and 6.78 and sold yesterday at 6.67, I did not like the price action the last few days, it made lower lows a few days in a row, but
                              that is nothing compared to all the profits I've made thanks to the Huge maestro.

                              Comment

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