IIC's Winners Watchlists

[IIC]

Heldover TRID...down a smidge but I like it...Made a little on RMBS and PWEI later...IIC


Today's MoMo:

NICH, SUNN, SUF, IED, KNOL, ATRM, RMBS, APAGF, IPSU, HOMS, GIII, PLXS, VRTX, AQQ, ICTG, LNUX, AMKR, HBX, AQNT, FNSR, KNDL, DCEL, AOM, AXTI, ICON, TRF, FLOW, FTO, GRS, DTLK, LANV, IIIN, ICCA, MNG, ININ, AVGN

Little Charts except AOM which Stockcharts can't seem to find:

http://trimurl.com/4LJ

http://trimurl.com/4LM

NICH
SUNN
SUF
IED
KNOL
ATRM
RMBS
APAGF
IPSU
HOMS
GIII
PLXS
VRTX
AQQ
ICTG
LNUX
AMKR
HBX
AQNT
FNSR
KNDL
DCEL
AOM
AXTI
ICON
TRF
FLOW
FTO
GRS
DTLK
LANV
IIIN
ICCA
MNG
ININ
AVGN

[IIC]

WHERE'S STENZ...???...I keep forgetting to post this:

Two Small Tech Stocks That Could Win Big
By TIERNAN RAY

Editor's Note: In our special report, "Small Companies, Big Futures," for Barron's Online's Open House, Weekday Trader will look at up-and-comers that could become tomorrow's big stars. Today we focus on technology companies, followed on Wednesday and Thursday by health care and energy.

WHERE IS THE NEXT CISCO SYSTEMS?

In the five years after its initial public offering in February 1990, Cisco's market capitalization surged to nearly $10 billion from only a few hundred million, enriching the initial wave of tech investors that decade.


Now, there are roughly 250 information-technology companies whose market values range from $500 million to $2 billion, according to Thomson Financial/Baseline.

Analysts and money managers who spoke with Barron's Online have identified two of them -- Informatica and Witness Systems -- as having what it takes to be tomorrow's big winners.

What is that magic quality? Paul Weinstein, a venture capitalist with Azure Capital Partners, remembers following Cisco as an analyst with Kidder Peabody in the early 1990s.

"You had a company with multiple, large addressable markets that was gaining share. That will normally lead to expanding margins and thus rising profitability," he explains.

It also had good management. "[Cisco's then-chief executive officer], John Morgridge, had that 'aw, shucks,' simple Midwestern manner, but underneath he was strategically minded and really ruthless," recalls Weinstein.

Such gems are harder to find these days, says John Slavik, portfolio manager of the Loomis Sayles Small Cap Growth Fund. The "perfect storm" that resulted from Y2K preparations, the personal computer boom, and the Internet's emergence doesn't happen every decade, he points out.

At a Glance:
Informatica (INFA)

Stock Price: $14.00 52-Wk High: $16.08 52-Wk Low: $7.22 Market Cap: $1.23 billion Earnings Est. (FY '06): $.47 Forward P/E: 25x Projected Long-Term EPS Growth Rate: 18% Projected EPS Growth ('06/'05): 12% Sales (12 mos. through Dec. 2005): $267.43 million Div. Yield: NA. CEO: Sohaib Abbasi Headquarters: Redwood City, Calif.

Witness Systems (WITS)

Stock Price: $23.14 52-Wk High: $24.15 52-Wk Low: $15.68 Market Cap: $642.97 million Earnings Est. (FY '06): $.83 Forward P/E: 23.6x Projected Long-Term EPS Growth Rate: 20% Projected EPS Growth ('06/'05): 22% Sales (12 mos. through Dec. 2005): $185.37 million Div. Yield: NA CEO: David B. Gould Headquarters: Roswell, Ga. Sources: Thomson Financial Network, Yahoo! Finance

Companies that have talented managers and serve growing, important market niches may have the best shot at future stardom.

Slavik thinks he's found one in Informatica, whose market capitalization is $1.21 billion.

If Cisco's routers are the plumbing of the Internet, Informatica's software pipes data to and from all the disparate programs sold to corporations by the likes of Oracle and SAP.

Executives use Informatica's software to see the most important data from all those programs in a single database.

Now, its market is set to double, says Christopher Wright, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus. Increasingly, companies are using Informatica's product, PowerCenter, to reduce the number of software programs they need to gather and store data.

"The larger market is for data integration, which lets companies use fewer programs, and that can really cut [information technology] staffing costs," says Wright.

Slavik also likes Chief Executive Officer Sohaib Abbasi, who took the helm about two years ago when Informatica's previous chief abruptly resigned amid a decline in sales growth.

Abbasi, who worked at Oracle from its days as a start-up, is "very well-respected in the industry and the investment community, and he's reinvigorated the sales force," says Slavik.

After boosting profits 163% last year from 2004's trough, Informatica will deliver more modest growth this year (see At a Glance). But Wall Street estimates earnings will rise by a healthy 18% annually over the next five years, way above the 12% projected growth of Oracle and SAP.

Witness Systems, whose market capitalization is $637 million, also may be breaking into a much broader market.

Witness' software is part of the $5 billion market for software and services known as "human capital management," says Judy Sweeney, an analyst with AMR Research in Boston.

Sales of certain products, such as the employee scheduling programs that Witness offers, are growing faster than the total market is.

Witness started out selling software that lets managers record calls to service reps. Through acquisitions, it branched out into programs that let companies schedule employees' shifts, check whether reps meet the compliance department's rules, and send training materials to employees' computer screens.

Witness' year-over-year sales growth, excluding acquisitions, was 15% in the December quarter -- faster than that of competitors Nice Systems or Verint Systems, notes Mark daSilva, a technology analyst for Principal Global Investors of Des Moines, Iowa.

"This kind of software can improve companies' return on investment because it cuts the cost of labor," which is two-thirds of the $300 billion spent worldwide each year on call centers, says daSilva.

Meanwhile, Witness' operating margins jumped to 18.9% of sales in the most recent quarter, from 11.4% of sales in 2004's December quarter, notes analyst Brad Whitt of RBC Capital Markets.

Sales, which leaped 31% last year, are set to grow by about 15% this year, and profits should rise 20% annually over the next five years.

In an age of outsourcing, international revenue has risen to 38% of sales last year from 25% in 2002.

Trading at 23.6x next year's estimated earnings (see At a Glance), Witness is only a hair more expensive than Verint or Nice.

Of course, small tech stocks like Informatica and Witness don't grow straight to the sky. Venture capitalist Weinstein recalls Cisco's plunge in mid-1994, when it enjoyed a premium P/E to peers.

"All of a sudden, [the attitude was] their sales growth rate wasn't going to pick up, and they were never going to make money again," he muses.

But as their product offerings grow and their markets expand, Witness and Informatica may indeed be able to keep the momentum going as they gain share. And even if they're not the next Cisco, they're likely to come out winners in the years ahead.

Full Disclosure:

• Judy Sweeney with AMR Research doesn't own shares of Witness Systems.

• Christopher Wright doesn't own shares of Witness Systems, and Stifel Nicolaus doesn't have investment banking business with the company.

• Loomis Sayles & Co. owns 203,100 shares of Informatica, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, dated Dec. 31, 2005.

• Principal Global Investors owns 114,390 shares of Witness Systems, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, dated Dec. 31, 2005.

[IIC]

Here are some 3/5/10 ema crossovers on the daily that are worth watching for continued short term movement:

AHS ASTE BEAS GET HOMS JKHY PLXT RMBS...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Going away for the weekend...be back Sunday evening...Best to all...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

YOU CAN VIEW ALL THE CHARTS OF THE IIC 100 AT THE "PUBLIC CHART LISTS" AT http://Stockcharts.com SIMPLY CLICK PUBLIC CHART LISTS ON THEIR HOMEPAGE OVER TO THE LEFT..THANKS, DOUG(IIC)

IIC 100 for 2/27/06

HANS ENG IFO NTRI GMXR HOM GIGM RWC NSSC TRID ARD SIRF MPWRE GOL DXPE ASF ATHR ICTG BGC OXPS CRDN GFIG TRLG MIND AKAM PLLL ININ KNOT EXP KEYS BTU LPSN RES ASTE CYB MTW ZUMZ ABAX ARP AIR BABY EPEX STMP NTG DIGE GG MORN INSU SPSX NXY UPL TLGD MNST TMI FORM CNQR LIFC TLF SLB DRQ WHQ ULTI DO SOSA MSCC WFT TNL IINT HPOL PRFT GRP MATR HP EXFO PARL LM VICR MDG CBJ CC MCX RIO ARTC GSF BJRI GOOG SUPX IRIS RIG CLRK CTV AVX OPWV CDIS AHS EOC ECHO STEL IDTI SWSI

Stocks On both the IIC 100 and IBD 100

ABAX CRDN DXPE EPEX EXP GFIG GG GOL GRP HANS KEYS LIFC NSSC OXPS PARL TMI

Added this week: None

Deleted from last week: CWTR MRVL RRC

This week there are 16...Last week there were 19...Of the 19...12 were up and 7 were down.

There are 19 stocks on the IIC 100 that are under $15.00.

...Best, Doug(IIC)

PS...since I started posting this combo list here have been the results each week:

For the week starting 11/14/05 there were 22 up and 1 dn.

For the week starting 11/21/05 there were 17 up and 2 dn.

For the week starting 11/28/05 there were 16 up and 13 dn.

For the week starting 12/5/05 there were 15 up and 13 dn.

For the week starting 12/11/05 there were 11 up and 19 dn.

For the week starting 12/19/05 there were 16 up and 13 dn.

For the week starting 12/27/05 there were 5 up and 22 dn.

For the week starting 1/3/06 there were 22 up 5 dn

For the week starting 1/9/06 there were 21 up 10 dn

For the week starting 1/17/06 there were 17 up 13 dn

For the week starting 1/23/06 there were 17 up 15 dn

For the week starting 1/30/06 there were 8 up 20 dn

For the week starting 2/6/06 there were 6 up 19 dn

For the week starting 2/13/06 there were 13 up 7 dn

For the week starting 2/21/06 there were 12 up 7 dn

If you would like the IIC 100 in a vertical format...you can use this site to convert it: http://www.ttrader.com/stockchat/replace_symbols.php

[IIC]

Friday's MoMo:

WTZ MFN GNBT PLLL TRBM EDGR RDCM MRB SLW STXS FLOW ICCA AZK ICTG IPSU NXG REGN PEIX BMRN HOMS DTLK MEK ORA MTRX TRCI AAU VRTX OXPS TBE AXTI KNDL ABB HBX NEU ININ KNOL APAGF


WTZ
MFN
GNBT
PLLL
TRBM
EDGR
RDCM
MRB
SLW
STXS
FLOW
ICCA
AZK
ICTG
IPSU
NXG
REGN
PEIX
BMRN
HOMS
DTLK
MEK
ORA
MTRX
TRCI
AAU
VRTX
OXPS
TBE
AXTI
KNDL
ABB
HBX
NEU
ININ
KNOL
APAGF

[IIC]

Traded ALKS +.15 FLSH +.25 URBN +.40 KFX -.53 today...Overall made some...but this NGAS is killin' me...IIC

[DSteckler]

<< Traded ALKS +.15 >>

Buy it and hold it, Doug. I picked up 2 1/2 today.

[IIC]

<< Traded ALKS +.15 >>

Buy it and hold it, Doug. I picked up 2 1/2 today.

Holding is against my religion...Usually anyway

[IIC]

Today's MoMo:
SILC, AGT, RNAI, OYOG, NICH, APCFY, NVAX, ALKS, TTP, REGN, SPWR, MWRK, DMX, SNDK, HOM, TNT, AZK, GNBT, ALNY, NEU, ICTG, ABAX, CLZR, LGTY, INFA, ZONA, JLG, SEED, ZVXI, APAGF, EDGR, NSTK, VPRT, AZPN, IIIN, EDAP, CLG, PPCO, HOMS, BAA, MTW, TRAD, EURO, MX, TRF, ABB

Little Charts:

http://trimurl.com/4MN

http://trimurl.com/4MO

http://trimurl.com/4MP

SILC
AGT
RNAI
OYOG
NICH
APCFY
NVAX
ALKS
TTP
REGN
SPWR
MWRK
DMX
SNDK
HOM
TNT
AZK
GNBT
ALNY
NEU
ICTG
ABAX
CLZR
LGTY
INFA
ZONA
JLG
SEED
ZVXI
APAGF
EDGR
NSTK
VPRT
AZPN
IIIN
EDAP
CLG
PPCO
HOMS
BAA
MTW
TRAD
EURO
MX
TRF
ABB

[IIC]

Only one trade today...FLOW +.305 sh on avg sell...Doug(IIC)

Today's MoMo:

BITS,EVST,ISIG,NRVN,PXPL,TTP,AZK,AVNX,BOOM,CTCH,NE TL,CLG,CRDN,AGT, FLOW,BABY,DMX,ESLR,HBX,CGPI,CHAP,IIIN,AMTD,ALNY,NO IZ
Little Charts

http://trimurl.com/4N9

http://trimurl.com/4NA

BITS
EVST
ISIG
NRVN
PXPL
TTP
AZK
AVNX
BOOM
CTCH
NETL
CLG
CRDN
AGT
FLOW
BABY
DMX
ESLR
HBX
CGPI
CHAP
IIIN
AMTD
ALNY
NOIZ

[IIC]

Nice way to start off a new month...Traded ATHR CDIS ORLY OPEN ADSK AEOS TWGP DECK ASTSF...A/D/U 5/3/1 but $$$ wise a very good day...Went back to basics (K.I.S.S.) after the KFX trade on Monday...Watching all those indicators on 1 min. charts is for the birds...But I gave it a fair trial...IIC


Today's MoMo:


AVNX JOYG GFX MNG ATHR ISV STIZ OS CNXT NSTK SIRF ATRM CBRX CIEN CTCH GRS ZONS NURO NETL TNT BKHM CBD ASYT VPHM TTP ESCL ANDE INFA TTM OYOG DSGX IIIN WIRE CYB NEU ASF LGTY GNBT NICH QSC ABB DMX URGI PWEI SURG BITS MDM CHAP POZN ZONA WTZ

AVNX
JOYG
GFX
MNG
ATHR
ISV
STIZ
OS
CNXT
NSTK
SIRF
ATRM
CBRX
CIEN
CTCH
GRS
ZONS
NURO
NETL
TNT
BKHM
CBD
ASYT
VPHM
TTP
ESCL
ANDE
INFA
TTM
OYOG
DSGX
IIIN
WIRE
CYB
NEU
ASF
LGTY
GNBT
NICH
QSC
ABB
DMX
URGI
PWEI
SURG
BITS
MDM
CHAP
POZN
ZONA
WTZ

[IIC]

Another decent day...Traded CCK and GYMB early...GYMB was very nice. Traded AMD which juked me out for a small loss and MAGS PAAS late for pocket change...IIC


Today's MoMo:

VSNT MEK DXPE TTP HTI ADL HBX SLW MRB JDSU FTEK MCU MYOG BGO TS CIEN IPSU ZONA WTZ YMI MDR NXG RBAK OS PWEI GRS GGB BNHNA FTO WIRE IIIN TTM CIB NETL JLG CVO MDM ATRM

VSNT
MEK
DXPE
TTP
HTI
ADL
HBX
SLW
MRB
JDSU
FTEK
MCU
MYOG
BGO
TS
CIEN
IPSU
ZONA
WTZ
YMI
MDR
NXG
RBAK
OS
PWEI
GRS
GGB
BNHNA
FTO
WIRE
IIIN
TTM
CIB
NETL
JLG
CVO
MDM
ATRM

[ninner]

Hey IIC what do u think about TALX...it had a decent day today...with above average volume...i thought it would be included in your MOMO list.

cheers

[IIC]

Hey IIC what do u think about TALX...it had a decent day today...with above average volume...i thought it would be included in your MOMO list.

cheers

I was watching TALX this morn...But I wasn't there at the right time...But I do like it for a possible further opportunity.

Just checked...It has a 94 RS rating from IBD which is in their Top 5 %. Unfortunately, my RS rating does not always match IBD's. There are several reasons for that...1) Mine uses 1-100 and their's is 1-99...2)They have over 7,000 in their database and I only have 5,500...3) I don't think IBD and I treat IPO's exactly the same.

Anyway, TALX gets a 94 rating on my scan too...But that's not in my TOP 5%...One more point on my RS rating and TALX woulda made the MoMo List...Sorry...I have to cut it off somewhere.

BTW...Here is my MoMo criteria:

1) Top 5% of my Relative Strength Database
2) Up 2%+
3) At least 1.5x ADV

Well...As MeatLoaf would say..."Two outta Three ain't Bad"

But overall...I think it is well worth investigating...Best, Doug