ParkTwain's Parlor

New goodies - after Tues close

Here are more of the better all-time high (ATH) setups and breakouts that resulted from scanning today's 52-week highs list. Some of these I might have mentioned in one of my previous "weekend research" posts.

I think almost all of these are very good candidates, given a bullish tenor to the markets.

ABK
BBV - my timing wasn't good on this one last week
CNSL
EBF
HCSG
HITT (watch first for a drop to 50DMA)
HRH (strong technicals, close to ATH)
HURN - another one I like a little extra
KONA - restaurant chain, I like 'em, low avg daily vol but recently active
PBG - Pepsi bottling co.
REXI
SNCR (see previous post on this thread), SRE
TRMA - I especially like this one
VVI
WDFC - news earlier in Aug of expansion into China drives momentum


And here are a few more "perennial" climbers, an impromptu category I started mentioning yesterday:

CG
DGX
KRC
PEP - Pepsi has a better-looking long-term chart than KO
SIAL
VIP, VDR, VTR

GOOD NIGHT, finally!

SNCR - provisioning sw for VoIP telecomms providers

I just found this one while going through the "up at least 5 days in a row" list here:

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/more_up_days.html?more=1

SNCR's latest financial PR is found here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060731/20060731005867.html?.v=1

Notice they have $2/sh in cash and their earnings before income taxes (not paid last year) have increased by about 33% in the first 6 months of current FY.

Looking at the chart, the pps has now made a round trip from its IPO price down and back. When it settles itself and makes ready to surpass its IPO pps, POUNCE!

This is a low volume trader for now, but notice the >300K volume day on August 18, which coincides with the filing of a Schedule 13G ( http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule13G.asp ) by Rosewood Partners, et al. A bullish development! Since that date, the pps has risen daily, though on much lower daily volume. 32M shares of float.

(Contrast the SNCR chart with CTCM since its IPO. Either can be a winner once the uptrend is established. The post-IPO roundtrip is quite common, of course, just not typically THIS FAST.)

Closed higher every day since Bernanke spoke?

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/more_up_days.html?more=1

some of these are up more than 10 days in a row.

Birinyi's blog - too much good stuff

There's so much good stuff in this blog every day, it could keep you from getting anything done with your trading.

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/

For instance:

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/08/best_and_worst__2.html

See any friends on these lists?

Also provides a fantastic collection of links in the left and right margins of every page.

Park I’ve allocated 10% risk or total of 1K for this port. This will be my R1. Each position is given equal risk or 55.55. Once a position reaches R1 (55.55) I will begin an exit strategy based off 10or 20 bar low and given 1 ATR of .05 as a constant multiplier for each day the stock moves in my favor. Since total risk is 1,000 I will be looking for at least an R2 or 2,000. R2 per position is 111.10 X 18=1999.80 if all hit an R@. We know this is very unlikely. When a position drops to my stop point it will be sold as a lost. The goal is to ride the winners and flush the losers and in doing so reach the R2 goal.

Yes this sounds crazy to have so many positions on with such a small amount but we are conducting this experiment as it fits in with what I’ve been doing lately in a forum of money management. Hope this sort of explains this goal.

Been looking at the ORCL chart

It showed lateral drift at about 12.50/sh from Sept 05 to mid March 06, when a nice breakout got it moving upward, and now it's at 15.50. It has showed good relative strength vs the Naz since then. It just surpassed intermediate resis at 15/sh in early Aug. It reaches its 5-yr high at about 17/sh if it keeps rising. From there it's tougher sledding up its Matterhorn that was put in before/after the year 2000 bubble.

THANKS runner, but tell me, what is your threshold for knowing that your portfolio is doing well?

P.S. Got +6% in my SNX today! That's more like it.

Little 10K sim port built off Parks list taken 15 days ago. Each position is slotted a 55.50 risk. Not bad for such a small port. I think I used 555.00 per position. Notice the 2 I sold because I thought the chart was topping…

Once R/1 is reached exit plan will kick in.. Awesome Job PARK...You da-man!!

Sorry made a mistake

Release of Fed minutes causes spike up

See MarketWatch news ticker items at 2pm today and just after.

http://tinyurl.com/zgpyf

Interesting to see this happen. Minutes show that all members expect inflation to abate going forward. Markets like to see that!

[New-born baby]

I'm still seeing a good number of "defensive" stocks making gains like tobacco (LTR, MO, BTI), comm. r.e., soft beverages (KO, PEP, PBG), and BREAKFAST CEREALS (GIS, K) for pete's sake!

The following morsels are showing post-ATH breakout moves, imminent ATH breakouts, passing near-term resis with a high ceiling to next resistance, or a climber w/ good-looking technicals up the right side of a nascent long-term cup.

ALSK
BCO, BRKR
CBS, CLHB, CMX
ENB
FISI, FRX
GIS
HGIC, HSIC
K, KO
MET
PBG
SFL, SKT, SNWL

Long-time gainers that appear on 52-wk highs list again today: AVB, LTR, VTS, WOOF. I never hear any mention of these wealth-builders around here!

ALSK is Alaska Telephone, and I used to trade it a couple of years ago. Pays 6.80% divy with no option chain. I don't see it moving too much higher (I could be wrong); but probably will pull back to the breakout level of $12.75 again soon. And it was just downgraded Friday by Lehman Bros.; upgraded Wed by Banc of America . This is a defensive stock for sure.

SFL: another defensive stock that I used to trade, pays a 8.70 divy and finances oil tankers. Good stock. Overbought at this time, imho.

Thanks for the post, Park!

New goodies from today's action

I'm still seeing a good number of "defensive" stocks making gains like tobacco (LTR, MO, BTI), comm. r.e., soft beverages (KO, PEP, PBG), and BREAKFAST CEREALS (GIS, K) for pete's sake!

The following morsels are showing post-ATH breakout moves, imminent ATH breakouts, passing near-term resis with a high ceiling to next resistance, or a climber w/ good-looking technicals up the right side of a nascent long-term cup.

ALSK
BCO, BRKR
CBS, CLHB, CMX
ENB
FISI, FRX
GIS
HGIC, HSIC
K, KO
MET
PBG
SFL, SKT, SNWL

Long-time gainers that appear on 52-wk highs list again today: AVB, LTR, VTS, WOOF. I never hear any mention of these wealth-builders around here!

[billyjoe]

Park,
Nice call on GISX especially since I own it. Up about 3.5% volume +30%. I had no idea it was splitting until viewing my online statement.

-----------billyjoe

New research for week of 8/28/06

Here are my best-looking setups for all-time high (ATH) breakouts (with an exception or two) for the coming week. The daily volume situation for individual stocks in August (vacation month for many on Wall St) complicates the outlook for this week and going into September. Are the stocks that are today near new highs but had declining vol during August setting up as having better near-term upside than those whose volume held steady during the month as their own PPSs rose?

This week's A-team list:
ARD - oil and nat gas, steady vol in Aug
BGC - steady vol in Aug
CVG - not at ATH but significant headroom before next resis level, steady vol in Aug
EXR - REIT, declining vol in Aug
GISX - slow gainer, declining vol in Aug
HURN - sw consult, declining vol in Aug
ICUI - declining vol in Aug
MVL - declining vol in Aug
NRF - REIT, another slow gainer, steady vol in Aug
PETD - nat gas and oil, steady vol in Aug
SJR - Aug vol started low, then high, then low at end of month
SNX - not at ATH but bullish, declining vol in Aug
UIL - steady vol (>50K sh traded per day) in Aug
WLL - oil, steady vol in Aug
WRI - REIT, steady vol in Aug

A-team list this week:
Mon 8/28 - 10 up (avg gain 1.53%), 5 down (avg loss 0.94%), on the day


This week's B-team list, close but no cigar:
BBV and STD (move in lock-step w/ each other)
BMR
CPRT
EPR
FLSH
FRX
GEO
MON
OCN
OKE
SNA
SNH
STSA

B-team list this week:
Mon 8/28 - 11 up (avg gain 1.10%), 2 down (avg loss 0.33%), on the day


Going into this week, long SNX and CTCM in my trading account.

Park,
I've always believed that the greatest successes in the market are unusual individuals that think differently than the crowd. This could also lead to the greatest failures . Something inborn sets them apart. A way of thinking that might be possessed by one in billion . Testing Buffet I'm sure would show more than a person who studies the market more hours than anyone else. The guy is eccentric in many ways having nothing to do with business.

------------billyjoe

Regarding Buffett, I think this little interview with a value investing guy sums it up pretty well.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04080902.htm

//
So I think of value investing as three things. A search strategy, which we talked about, which is where the low P/E, low market to book comes in. But it's not all of it, by any means, even of the search strategy. A valuation strategy. And a discipline approach to taking advantage of the information that your valuation is telling you about and having a default strategy when it's telling you it doesn't look like there's anything there.
//

Googling on "valuation methodology" can be an eye-opener.