ParkTwain's Parlor

yes, I think he's a very sharp guy and try to read his materials as often as possible. I listen to what he says about the entire market more than about individual stocks.

[Gatorman]

Ray, Mr. Birinyi is one up on you! The site picks a different, perhaps randomly chosen, stock each day, then tracks how that stock performs and adds its performance to a cumulative performance of other "dart" picks, versus other indexes and picks of other experts.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/02/the_daily_dart.html

Also, check out the fantastic list of links to technical trading sites on the right side of the page.

Laszlo Birinyi was a favorite of mine when he appeared on Wall Street Week and later on Louis Rukeyeser's program after Louis left PBS. His voice was a bit hard to deal with but his views were always interesting and timely.

Birinyi Assoc. DAILY DART

Ray, Mr. Birinyi is one up on you! The site picks a different, perhaps randomly chosen, stock each day, then tracks how that stock performs and adds its performance to a cumulative performance of other "dart" picks, versus other indexes and picks of other experts.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/02/the_daily_dart.html

Also, check out the fantastic list of links to technical trading sites on the right side of the page.

Food for thought from Yahoo's BHE chat board:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687401&tid=bhe&sid=4687401&mid=2276

//
A funny thing has happened to the markets. The earnings of S&P500 companies have gone up in double digits (vs. prior year) for 15 quarters straight. That's 15 consecutive quarters with earnings rising > 10% (something that has never happened before in history!). Yet stocks have been stuck in a narrow trading range. The Dow has remained in a +/-6% range for 2 1/2 years! During the first double digit increases (in 2002), the market rose. After the 4th double digit earnings rise, people throught that companies probably can't continue with a 5th double digit earnings climb, so they did not invest much more into stocks. But the companies did achieve double digit growth. People said the same during the 6th quarter, yet the companies again got double digit growth. This went on and on for the
7th quarter,
the 8th quarter,
the 9th quarter ,
the 10th quarter,
the 11th quarter,
the 12th quarter.
People put money into housing. Some said the baby steps in interest rate increases are the reason (this period had the largest # of miniscule 1/4 pt. increases ever).
Company profits contined > 10% rises in the 13th quarter,
in the 14th quarter!!!
and even in the 15th consecutive quarter!!!!!!.
The S&P500 companies continue > 10% earnings rises and they built up record earnings, reduced debt, and built record cash levels now > $700B cash (highest ever).

We continue to see >10% profits rises and with the 16th quarter now nearly half-way through it is likely we'll see another >10% profit growth. Now, the baby steps in interest rate increases are likely to stop. The >10% profit growth continues (proving naysayers wrong for years now) and we still hsve a Dow stuck in a +/-6% level.

Stock price appreciation is soon coming with a boom. Fundamentals are way too good to contine in this +/-6% Dow range forever! The climb in stocks is coming in 2006. We are overdue for at least a 25% climb. This will likely put the Dow at 14,000 by the end of 2006.
//

In response, I say that the S&P500 has been slightly uptrending (at about 100 S&P500 index pts, or a little less than 10%, per year) since Jan 2004:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Unlike the Dow Jones 30 industrials:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

If I buy PMT at $20 and the stock surprises me and drops to $18, that dividend works to console me and also to drive the stock price back up. It is a nice insurance.

I would respectfully submit that your only practical insurance against risk in a stock is its most recent level of strong support. For an already uptrending stock, the nearer you can buy above that level, the better your return to risk ratio. If that support level is also a previous all-time high peak (or set of peaks that occurred over time), the return to risk ratio is both positive and not bounded!

<< I'm liking IED. >>

Improvised Explosive Devices? You guys are scaring me....<g>

[Websman]

To be more specific, I'm waiting for a possible gap fill on IED. It's a long shot, but I'll try to buy it under 6.25.

[Websman]

This morning bought IED and BHE.

New additions (2/7/06 data) to yesterday's watch list for all-time high breakouts.

BHE, BTUI
CECE
IED, ISE
OTT
PLMD
ROLL
WGOV

I'm liking IED. I may buy on a pullback myself.

[New-born baby]

But price usually drops after the stock goes ex-dividend. Doesn't that cut into your return?

If I buy a stock that pays a monthly dividend, I usually hold the stock for more than one month. For example: PMT.UN is a natural gas stock on the TSE. It pays a monthly divy of .24 CD. If you buy the stock at current $20 level, the price will fluctuate about $2 per month. You could play for the capital gains, or you can hold and collect $2.88 per year with little sweat. Or you could play it inbetween. If I buy PMT at $20 and the stock surprises me and drops to $18, that dividend works to console me and also to drive the stock price back up. It is a nice insurance.

This morning bought IED and BHE.

New additions (2/7/06 data) to yesterday's watch list for all-time high breakouts.

BHE, BTUI
CECE
IED, ISE
OTT
PLMD
ROLL
WGOV

But price usually drops after the stock goes ex-dividend. Doesn't that cut into your return?

[New-born baby]

But the dividend distribution could, at worst, be 3 months away! (I'm assuming your statement means that you hold for the divy distribution, or are you talking about only the price movement that reflects the market's anticipation of the distribution?)

Monthly divys. If it is a three month wait, then price appreciation near the divy ex-date is what I look for. I don't like holding those 3 month-ers for the divy. Too risky.

Perfect example of what I'm looking for:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LDSH&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=ldsh

In late July 2005 LDSH jumped on high volume to meet its all-time high of just over 15.00/sh. Notice in the second chart that its rise since then has been faster than any in its previous history. Since then it's seen about a 66% gain in 6 months. No overhead resistance is a beautiful thing.

A day like today means little as the divy will recover the losses in short order.

But the dividend distribution could, at worst, be 3 months away! (I'm assuming your statement means that you hold for the divy distribution, or are you talking about only the price movement that reflects the market's anticipation of the distribution?)

[New-born baby]

I eliminate different groups of stocks for different reasons but with the same intent: to increase the chance of finding a stock with a minimum of extraneous influences that could be "drags" on the ability of the shares to increase quickly after all-time-high resistance has been surpassed.

No foreign companies: no need to allow for currency risk or political/regulatory acts of a foreign sovereign, unforeseen effects of U.S. foreign policy acts/decisions

No banks, REITs, insurers, utilities: typically slow pps gainers, heavily regulated businesses, banks highly reactive to Fed policy and actions

No mines or metals: closely tied to an associated commodity's price, which itself can be tied to extraneous factors, such as foreign political acts/accidents/incidents/currency panics. To play these stocks I am in effect playing a commodity (a foreign-dominated commodity would be the worst case) but doing so indirectly. (I would rather play a commodity directly, in those markets.) I could also use this reasoning to disqualify metal-forming businesses (steel mills, canning companies, wire manufacturers, etc.) and even any oil/NG-related company. Practically speaking, I almost never trade any oil company shares due to their extreme sensitivity to geopolitical factors. (My trades can run from a few days to a few weeks.) During CY2005, I traded only two stocks, FTO and CHK, in the oil/NG sectors; made good $$$ on FTO but lost $$$ (October) on CHK.

I thank you for the post. I play the NG/Oil sector most heavily, esp. the high divy payers. Yes, the high divy (12%+ means a slow pps gains (or losses). I look at the divy as insurance. A day like today means little as the divy will recover the losses in short order.