ParkTwain's Parlor

[SundialMan]

reply to earlier post

Iran may be a 5 years away from a full workable nuclear program. But considering Iran's holding a "there was no Holocaust" conference and also recently demanding that European countries send them documentation that the Holocaust occurred, it is in Israel's - or the rest of the world's - best interest to consider the consequences of a nuclear Iran today and raise the issue. There are many towns in the US that plan 5 or 10 years ahead for water and sewage treatment. The nuclear Iran issue could lead to a lot more pollution than some high part per million bacteria in water. And many people discuss start up companies on these boards that won't have a significant market for 3-5 years from now.

Implying that anyone who is concerned about a nuclear Iran today is not one of the "calmer heads" is wrong. In fact, it is just the opposite. A calmer head would consider what to do today rather than wait until the last minute in an actual or near-actual nuclear blackmail situation.

Jack

[ParkTwain]

Remember that right now Iran is being governed by their equivalent of a committee of Jerry Falwells, and there are signs that their people are getting tired of the act. What Iran's president says to the world is meant for the play it gets at home.

I think a legitimate response to these pronouncements out of Iran is the question: Why is Iranian Shia Islam so filled with hate at Israel? Are these Shia "family values"? Hate-mongers should be called out and marginalized in international relations just as in domestic politics.

There is the point of view that all this international hot air is an indication of the very real struggle for regional power in the Middle East, that Iran has chosen to step into the vacuum that was left by the removal of pressure (against the U.S.) formerly provided by the Soviet Union regarding Middle East affairs. Everyone's got an agenda, nothing's new there. And the militarist forces in the U.S., Iran, and Israel like it that way; it gives their respective militaries a "mission" out there.

What disappoints me is that American politics has now descended to the terms of debate provided by the tribal, religion-dominated societies of the Middle East, including that satellite of the West, Israel. It somehow is now seen as a wonderful thing that the U.S. is now "just like Israel" in that we now have to mobilize our entire society to address "terrorism" and wear it with a badge of honor and bravery, instead of looking at "how did we get here?" (i.e., is there no limit to America's support for Israel?) and "is all this necessary because of 20 guys carrying box cutters?" (i.e., the FAA kowtowed to the domestic airline companies about not securing airliner cockpits against criminal acts). The U.S. is NOT basically like Israel, and I don't think that the majority of Americans really wants that.

BTW - Did you know that Israel recognizes a marriage that takes place domestically only if it is performed under Orthodox sanction? Talk about using religion as a hammer! Check out this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...ld/4215160.stm

[SundialMan]

"BTW - Did you know that Israel recognizes a marriage that takes place domestically only if it is performed under Orthodox sanction? Talk about using religion as a hammer! Check out this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...ld/4215160.stm"

Park, The mullahs in Iran are like Jerry Falwell? You wish they were. You'd have a lot less concerns. When was the last time Falwell got his congregation together to stone an adulterer or adulteress to death?

As for Israel's requiring a religious marriage, I've known that for 30 years. There are a few issues to discuss here. Firstly, this applies to Jews only, i.e., people claiming to be members of the religion. Secondly, Israel recognizes weddings that take place overseas. Arriving immigrants from Russia or Ethiopia don't have to be remarried. And native Israeli Jews have been known to go to Cyprus or Europe and get married, return with an accepted wedded status.

Lastly, ParkTwain, where is your respect for multiculturalism, especially in a foreign country? Are you saying they should change their religion and culture just to please someone who lives 7-11,000 miles away? I thought liberalism and tolerance were all about accepting other people's cultures. Or is that only for non-Judeo-Christian cultures? I doubt that a non-Catholic could be
married in a ceremony in the political borders of Vatican City. And I'd really doubt anyone other than a Muslim could be married in Saudi Arabia.

I'll read your response to this, should you post it, but I think we both have heard each other out and offer a lot more heat than light to anyone reading this exchange. I've heard your type of response - and my type of response - many times before.

Jack

[ParkTwain]

The mullahs in Iran are like Jerry Falwell? You wish they were. You'd have a lot less concerns. When was the last time Falwell got his congregation together to stone an adulterer or adulteress to death?

Is the only reason you think that Falwell is "softer" than the mullahs is that his running orders come ostensibly from the New Testament rather than the Old? (I doubt that you would want to have lived under King David.) My point is that both Iran's mullahs and Jerry Falwell are theocratic fascists, but of course Falwell hasn't yet gained his office. Each represents a step backward, a regression, in the history of mankind.

As for Israel's requiring a religious marriage, I've known that for 30 years. There are a few issues to discuss here. Firstly, this applies to Jews only, i.e., people claiming to be members of the religion. Secondly, Israel recognizes weddings that take place overseas. Arriving immigrants from Russia or Ethiopia don't have to be remarried. And native Israeli Jews have been known to go to Cyprus or Europe and get married, return with an accepted wedded status.

I just thought that the BBC article was interesting in documenting that many young Israelis are going overseas to have a non-religious wedding ceremony. Is the Israeli law behind this practice subject to repeal by the Israeli legislature? Is so, I'm interested in why it hasn't been repealed yet, since it represents the interests of a political minority in Israel.

Lastly, ParkTwain, where is your respect for multiculturalism, especially in a foreign country? Are you saying they should change their religion and culture just to please someone who lives 7-11,000 miles away? I thought liberalism and tolerance were all about accepting other people's cultures. Or is that only for non-Judeo-Christian cultures? I doubt that a non-Catholic could be married in a ceremony in the political borders of Vatican City. And I'd really doubt anyone other than a Muslim could be married in Saudi Arabia.

How I feel about Israeli laws was not my point about mentioning Israel's marriage restrictions, but rather the question of how is it that a religious faction comprising an electoral minority in a democracy has such prescriptive sway about such basic social behaviors.

As I understand it, there are non-Jews who are citizens of the Israeli state -- or should I say less than fully enfranchised citizens of the Israeli state. So those folks can't have a legally recognized non-Orthodox wedding within Israel? I would say, this ain't the way to build social solidarity within a nation. But Israel certainly isn't the only practioner of this kind of "tribal" notion of citizenship: see also Germany.

I am distinctly biased in favor of the American principle of the government not favoring or prohibiting religious practices per se.

I'll read your response to this, should you post it, but I think we both have heard each other out and offer a lot more heat than light to anyone reading this exchange. I've heard your type of response - and my type of response - many times before.

You know next to nothing about me, except from a couple of posts on an Internet chat board. Please don't jump to your conclusions.

Finally, here is an interesting essay I found recently by Hayek in which he explains why he didn't consider himself a "conservative" but rather a classical "liberal" (i.e., libertarian) or "Old Whig."

http://www.geocities.com/ecocorner/intelarea/fah1.html

"It is for this reason that to the [classical] liberal neither moral nor religious ideals are proper objects of coercion, while both conservatives and socialists recognize no such limits. I sometimes feel that the most conspicuous attribute of [classical] liberalism that distinguishes it as much from conservatism as from socialism is the view that moral beliefs concerning matters of conduct which do not directly interfere with the protected sphere of other persons do not justify coercion. This may also explain why it seems to be so much easier for the repentant socialist to find a new spiritual home in the conservative fold than in the [classical] liberal."

[ParkTwain]

Today I read this useful schematic history of Islam

I found this essay ("a secular history of Islam") interesting and informative, though I don't yet take every statement as true history. It looks like it can be a basis for further reading and understanding about Islamic societies. The essay's author, Tariq Ali, was raised in Lahore, Pakistan, but received his higher education in England and still lives there today. He is a strident athiest and democratic socialist.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v24/n03/ali_01_.html

//
Judaism, Christianity and Islam all began as versions of what we would today describe as political movements. They were credible belief-systems which aimed to make it easier to resist imperial oppression, to unite a disparate people, or both. If we look at early Islam in this light, it becomes apparent that its Prophet was a visionary political leader and its triumphs a vindication of his action programme. Bertrand Russell once compared early Islam to Bolshevism, arguing that both were 'practical, social, unspiritual, concerned to win the empire of this world'. By contrast, he saw Christianity as 'personal' and 'contemplative'. Whether or not the comparison is apt, Russell had grasped that the first two decades of Islam had a distinctly Jacobin feel. Sections of the Koran have the vigour of a political manifesto, and at times the tone in which it addresses its Jewish and Christian rivals is as factional as that of any left-wing organisation. The speed with which it took off was phenomenal. Academic discussion as to whether the new religion was born in the Hijaz or Jerusalem or elsewhere is essentially of archaeological interest. Whatever its precise origins, Islam replaced two great empires and soon reached the Atlantic coast. At its height three Muslim empires dominated large parts of the globe: the Ottomans with Istanbul as their capital, the Safavids in Persia and the Mughal dynasty in India.
//

[SundialMan]

Israeli religious marriage

ParkTwain, Israel was founded by a majority of socialist Zionists and some Orthodox religious Jews. They were both interested in keeping the country Jewish in nature, as a haven for Jews who arrived because of choice or persecution in other countries. Many of both the socialists and the Orthodox had seen young Jews in Europe marry outside their faith or profess an internationalism with no connection to Judiasm. They did not want to facilitate such assimilationist and interfaith marriage methods in Israel, so they gave the religious groups the monopoly on marriages. They basically didn't uproot themselves from other countries to come all the way to the land of the Bible, face physical hardships and attacks by Arabs (dating from even before the 1929 Arab riots) to then be indifferent about a Jewish identity for their marrying children.

I don't have the statistics, but I don't believe there is this large movement to get married in Europe among young Israelis that your post implied. Some of the young socialists or "citizens of the world" may do it, but many socialists and athiests (not mutually exclusive categories) have put up with dealing with a rabbi for an hour or two on their wedding day in Israel.

[ParkTwain]

Finally have a big one-day winner - HTI

It's been a while.

Presently long HTI, TPX, and CHAP.

[ParkTwain]

Couple of ideas from rather thin research tonight

Looked at Barchart.com's list of high "weighted alpha" stocks (high volatility).

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=top~100~stocks.sec

On this list, look for those with RSI around 60 to 65 and presently rising for at least the last few days, AND with the -DI line (in an ADX +DI and -DI plot) tending to stay low (below 20) AND wherethe ADX line is about to turn upward at a reading of about 20. For my technical chart, I start with this page, then adjust the chart's attributes to show only 1 yr of data:

http://tinyurl.com/2xw499

Here is tonight's list of qualifying stocks:
SWK, SLP, JADE, TRA and TNH, SPAR, OMTR, APAC, IOSP, UCTT
(TRA and TNH are related companies.)

Only these are near a previous significant all-time high peak (for anticipating a breakout):
SWK, OMTR, UCTT

Additionally, I look at all the qualifying stocks in two ways:

1) assess the present "market riskiness" of share price in terms of its trailing P/E (lower P/E is better):
SWK (p/e 16)
TNH (p/e 20)
UCTT (p/e 27)
SPAR (p/e 28 )

2) assess the recent technical behavior (low -DI reading w/ ADX reading in "takeoff" position of breaking up through 20):
TRA, TNH, OMTR, APAC, IOSP

So here are the recommendations from among the qualifying stocks:
SWK, OMTR, UCTT
TRA, TNH, APAC, IOSP

OMTR is the only one with pps near a previous significant all-time high peak AND with attractive recent technical behavior as described above. However, its trailing P/E is N/A.

Just a couple of ideas to get your brain churning.

(I see that our Rob has UCTT as his current pick in POTW contest. That's been a good move so far, obviously.)

[ParkTwain]

Some all-time high breakout candidates, as of 13Apr2007

Each of these is no more than 5% above its all-time high (of at least 30 days prior) with uptrending RSI between 65 and 75 as of end of last week. I'm looking for good near-term appreciation for each of these.

Looks to me that MCD is the ticket to ride right now for the risk-averse among us, based on its current chart strength and how it made a new ATH last week. Very impressive comback the last several years. Next earnings announcement is this Friday, Apr 20. I would be surprised if there isn't lots of "talk" in the financial media about this achievement for the remainder of this month. Despite the reporter's claim in the following article, according to chart data available for free at StockCharts.com, 47.00 (or right at it) was the high price for the period 1998 to 2001, but the April 13th close was 47.64.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070413/mcdonalds_outlook.html?.v=9

Lower PE candidates:

DCO (PE: 19.2, leading PEG: 0.89)
HWCC (PE: 19.8, leading PEG: 0.85) issue is younger than 1 year
MCD (PE: 16.8, leading PEG: 2.11)
SXT (PE: 18.8, leading PEG: 4.45)
TEX (PE: 19, leading PEG: 1.62)

Higher PE candidates:

CF (leading PEG: 3.14) nitrogen fertilizer company
DLB (leading PEG: 1.92)
FLIR (leading PEG: 1.48 )
FLO (leading PEG: 2.07)
MTW (leading PEG: 0.81)
MYE (leading PEG: 0.65)
NIHD (leading PEG: 0.87)
PORK (leading PEG: N/A)
SWHC (leading PEG: 0.9)
THQI (leading PEG: 1.46)
VCLK (leading PEG: 1.82)
WMS (leading PEG: 1.48 )

[ParkTwain]

Exotic Photo of the Day

View of Hunza River valley and the mountain named Rakaposhi, taken from the 700-y.o. Baltit Fort in Karimabad, northern Pakistan:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=170316237&size=o

This map locates Karimabad, on the amazing Karakoram Highway:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/KKH.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoram_Highway

About Rakaposhi:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rakaposhi

[ParkTwain]

MCD or HWCC?

Going into this week's action, these two stocks' 1-year charts look pretty similar. (Adjust settings to display 1 year of data.) Each has been very strong as of end of last week. But MCD has just passed a previous all-time high made over 7 years ago. Does the market for MCD have that good a memory?

MCD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=mcd,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!ll14]

HWCC:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=hwcc,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!ll14]

But MCD is breaking out since Monday and HWCC is not. I guess all one can do is set one's alerts and let the market tell you what to do.

[ParkTwain]

Exotic Photo(s) of the Day

Valbona Gorge in northern Albania:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=207225180&size=l

Thethi, Albania:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=214367218&size=o

Mt. Popa monastery (Buddhist), Myanmar:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=152498774&size=l

[ParkTwain]

Huge extent of illegal labor confounds economic data-logging

Picking up where the discussion left off in the Rob's Lobs thread, this article opens a window into the effects on illegal laborers in California of the downturn in home construction. Economists won't see a big decline in construction employment if most of the workers were illegals to begin with. In the subsequent downturn in construction, those workers just "disappear." "Even the supervisors are Mexicans."

http://tinyurl.com/2algha

Reliable economic and demographic data is based on an assumption that at least most of the economic activity taking place is traceable using conventional (legal) reporting mechanisms (wages paid, unemployment records, rental leases that declare actual occupancy, etc.).

As G.W. Bush is fond of saying, "small business is the backbone of this nation's economy." Small business is also the predominant employer of illegals, therefore the biggest scofflaws, and the bigger companies they contract with like it that way. This sets up a true enforcement nightmare for the U.S. ICE, which is also what everyone in business wants. It is the profits of small businesses and those with whom they contract, that are under threat by a change in the status quo toward enforcement of the U.S. immigration laws. Watch Dubya dance!

[IIC]

Economists won't see a big decline in construction employment if most of the workers were illegals to begin with. In the subsequent downturn in construction, those workers just "disappear." "Even the supervisors are Mexicans."

http://tinyurl.com/2algha

That's not what the last paragraph in your article says...And I quote;

José Manuel J. complained. “People are scattering up to Oregon and further north because there is little work here.”

Some may disappear from California...But I sorta thought Oregon was part of the USA too...Doug

[ParkTwain]

That's not what the last paragraph in your article says...And I quote;

José Manuel J. complained. “People are scattering up to Oregon and further north because there is little work here.”

Some may disappear from California...But I sorta thought Oregon was part of the USA too...Doug

Disappear, as in disappear from detection by the economics data-gatherers.