ParkTwain's Parlor

[jiesen]

For all you commodities- and fundamentals-oriented investors out there.

Interesting article (NOTE: dated December 2006) I just came across while checking out the ATH chart action for Rockwood Holdings (symbol: ROC):

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

I would try to buy into this one at its 50DMA.

After doing a Google search about lithium mining, it seems there is controversy among mining and lithium technology analysts whether there will be shortage of lithium in the future, when it is supposed there will be millions of electric automobiles (with lithium-based batteries) produced around the world and thereby pushing upward the demand and prices of lithium.

For instance, check out this article and especially the comments found at the bottom of the page:

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/30/beyond-peak-oil-are-we-facing-peak-lithium/

In contrast, see these articles:

http://tyler.blogware.com/lithium_shortage.pdf

http://www.the-infoshop.com/press/ros42739_en.shtml

There is only one lithium mine in production in the U.S., at Silver Peak, in Esmeralda County (pop. 800), Nevada. (See http://www.nbmg.unr.edu/earthcache/C...ytonValley.pdf ) It is extracted by pumping water from deep underground onto an evaporation basin at the surface, then separating the lithium from the salts that remain after the evaporation. A large potential source of lithium is the Uyuni Salt Flats in Bolivia (see my next Exotic Photo of the Day in this thread), which might never be developed commercially due to its environmental uniqueness.

Hmm, lithium is already proving to be a winner for ROC:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070430/earns_rockwood.html?.v=1

Rockwood Holdings 1Q Profit Surges
Monday April 30, 12:01 pm ET Rockwood Holdings 1Q Profit Jumps After Subsidiary Sale, Higher Prices for Specialty Chemicals

PRINCETON, N.J. (AP) -- Specialty chemicals maker Rockwood Holdings Inc. said Monday its first-quarter profit more than tripled following the sale of a subsidiary. Shares jumped 76 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $30.98 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier in the session, they climbed to a new 52-week high of $33.25.


Quarterly earnings swelled to $145.3 million, or $1.93 per share, from $40 million, or 53 cents per share, in the prior-year period. Much of the gain came from Rockwood Holdings' $423.3 million sale of its Groupe Novasep subsidiary in January.

Excluding the sale and other special items, Rockwood Holdings said it earned 43 cents per share in the recent quarter. That beat Wall Street's expectations of 36 cents per share, according to a Thomson Financial analyst survey.
Sales rose to $796.1 million from $724.1 million, topping analysts' expectations of $777.5 million.
Chairman and Chief Executive Seifi Ghasemi said in a statement Rockwood Holdings' geographic diversity is helping to blunt the signs of economic slowdown in North America. The company's specialty chemicals unit also benefited from higher selling prices and increased volume of lithium products. The division saw particularly strong growth in the European automotive market.

[IIC]

You are quite the Shutter Bug Park...I do enjoy viewing them...Many are very interesting...Are some of these photos that you took?

[jiesen]

http://www.iter.org/a/index_faq.htm


You'll have to look under the Tritium section of the ITER FAQ for the lithium info, but this is what you'll find:

Is shortage of lithium a problem?

The actual amount of Li consumed in fusion to produce tritium is 2.6 t /GW(electric)/year. This means a typical eventual deployment of fusion based on DT - perhaps 1000 1 GW(e) reactors worldwide - would consume ~3kt/year. Given that proven resources of easily recoverable lithium (<$50/kg) are in the range of 12 MT, this doesn't look to be a problem.

Of course things are not quite that simple. First the amount of lithium used in designs of tritium-breeding blankets for reactors is about 100-1000 t/GW(e). This means up to 1 MT of lithium is locked up in 1000 reactors. In some designs e.g. with lithium-lead coolant/breeder materials the lithium consumed can be replaced on-line and the lithium-bearing materials decanted and re-used in the subsequent generation of reactors. The loss in this case is just the consumption figure. In other designs e.g. with ceramic breeder materials, these would have to be recycled after removal from the reactor to allow their lithium to be fully utilised. Economics will dictate the pace and need for that.

The standard lithium resource figures are based on normal mining techniques and extraction from brines. With increasing demand for lithium other reserves will become economical. Lithium is found in the earth's crust at about 30 ppm, comparable to materials used for special steels or to fuel fission reactors. It is also found in the sea at 0.2 ppm, and these resources in both cases would be at least 3 orders of magnitude higher than today's economically recoverable resources. The question will always be the economics of such extraction, but even today desalination of seawater produces lithium salts as a by-product, which could in future provide a sufficiently concentrated feedstock for an economically competitive extraction process.

Thus lithium reserves are not a show-stopper for the full deployment of fusion as a worldwide energy source, and use for minimum of 1000 years. There will be competition for resources - for batteries as well as for structural materials in aircraft and cars - but the resource base can take it.

[jiesen]

For all you commodities- and fundamentals-oriented investors out there.

Interesting article (NOTE: dated December 2006) I just came across while checking out the ATH chart action for Rockwood Holdings (symbol: ROC):

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

I would try to buy into this one at its 50DMA.

After doing a Google search about lithium mining, it seems there is controversy among mining and lithium technology analysts whether there will be shortage of lithium in the future, when it is supposed there will be millions of electric automobiles (with lithium-based batteries) produced around the world and thereby pushing upward the demand and prices of lithium.

For instance, check out this article and especially the comments found at the bottom of the page:

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/30/beyond-peak-oil-are-we-facing-peak-lithium/

In contrast, see these articles:

http://tyler.blogware.com/lithium_shortage.pdf

http://www.the-infoshop.com/press/ros42739_en.shtml

There is only one lithium mine in production in the U.S., at Silver Peak, in Esmeralda County (pop. 800), Nevada. (See http://www.nbmg.unr.edu/earthcache/C...ytonValley.pdf ) It is extracted by pumping water from deep underground onto an evaporation basin at the surface, then separating the lithium from the salts that remain after the evaporation. A large potential source of lithium is the Uyuni Salt Flats in Bolivia (see my next Exotic Photo of the Day in this thread), which might never be developed commercially due to its environmental uniqueness.

Great stuff there, Park!

As far as lithium demand goes- these articles are rather shortsighted, imo. They look out 3 years to the demand increase from batteries. But I think this might pale in comparison to the demand 30-50 years out when thousands of fusion reactors need to begin construction. This could take upwards of 10% of the world's current Li reserves (12,000,000 tonnes).

http://www.iter.org/a/index_faq.htm

At any rate, ROC seems to be well-positioned to take advantage of the situation, and could be a big winner over either a 3 year or a 30 year time-horizon.

It's definitely worth a closer look. Thanks for the find!

Exotic Photo of the Day

Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia (an extensive salt lake desert)

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=274063716&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=uyuni&s=int

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Uyuni

Word to the Wise - Lithium production

For all you commodities- and fundamentals-oriented investors out there.

Interesting article (NOTE: dated December 2006) I just came across while checking out the ATH chart action for Rockwood Holdings (symbol: ROC):

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

I would try to buy into this one at its 50DMA.

After doing a Google search about lithium mining, it seems there is controversy among mining and lithium technology analysts whether there will be shortage of lithium in the future, when it is supposed there will be millions of electric automobiles (with lithium-based batteries) produced around the world and thereby pushing upward the demand and prices of lithium.

For instance, check out this article and especially the comments found at the bottom of the page:

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/01/30/beyond-peak-oil-are-we-facing-peak-lithium/

In contrast, see these articles:

http://tyler.blogware.com/lithium_shortage.pdf

http://www.the-infoshop.com/press/ros42739_en.shtml

There is only one lithium mine in production in the U.S., at Silver Peak, in Esmeralda County (pop. 800), Nevada. (See http://www.nbmg.unr.edu/earthcache/C...ytonValley.pdf ) It is extracted by pumping water from deep underground onto an evaporation basin at the surface, then separating the lithium from the salts that remain after the evaporation. A large potential source of lithium is the Uyuni Salt Flats in Bolivia (see my next Exotic Photo of the Day in this thread), which might never be developed commercially due to its environmental uniqueness.

[jiesen]

breathtaking!

[IIC]

.........Cool

Exotic Photo(s) of the day - Dunhuang China

Location of Dunhuang:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dunhuang_location.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunhuang

//
For centuries Buddhist monks at Dunhuang collected scriptures from the west, and many pilgrims passed through the area, painting murals inside the Mogao Caves or "Caves of a Thousand Buddhas." A small number of Christian artifacts have also been found in the caves (see Jesus Sutras), testimony to the wide variety of people who made their way along the silk road. Today, the site is an important tourist attraction and the subject of an ongoing archaeological project.
//

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=69184636&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=218987455&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=144317701&size=o

http://asia.cnet.com/i/r/2005/dc/39254474/sc024.jpg

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=320240212&size=l

This photos shows at least five distinct groups of people in front of and on the dunes:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=282160423&size=l

Tpx, Tra, Hwcc

Making $$$ lately on these three. TPX pulled back on its earnings day recently, but its uptrend is intact. MCD continues to act really well. I have a long "ready to buy" list that I'm winnowing for next week.

Exotic Photo(s) of the Day - Uruguayan horsemen

Incredible set of photos of gauchos breaking horses

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bombeador/sets/72057594139351575/

Doug, no I haven't visited Mesa Verde, but I have visited Montezuma's Castle in northern Arizona. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezu...ional_Monument ) It's a very nice little stop on the way north from Phoenix to Sedona or to Flagstaff.

[IIC]

When I first saw your pics some of them reminded me of Mesa Verde, the old cliff dwellings in SW Colorado. Have you ever been there? Very interesting place. I was there circa 1966 and 1975.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=mesa+verde+photos

I'm glad you're enjoying those photos. Flickr is a goldmine of images. There are a couple of others out there as well. When I search Google on particular city or location names, I find them. It can be such an education.

I've been doing research on the Silk Road in central Asia and have been reading some short history subjects. So I've been looking up sites in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, western China, etc. Did you know that the extreme western region of China named Xinjiang is heavily Muslim (city of Kashgar, etc.)? Have you heard of the ancient region of Gandhara that straddled present-day northwest India, northern Pakistan, and eastern Afghanistan? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Buddhist) Check out the history of of the city Taxila. This was a region where early Buddhism flourished before the time of Christ, spreading along the Silk Road into China and its offshoots elsewhere between India and western China, then after Alexander the Great passed through, Macedonians and Greeks were left behind to settle and rule. In the overall course of history, the Greek dominance was not long-lived (about 300 years at most and in only some of the locales), but what resulted in the material culture was an incredible combination of Greek and Buddhist artifacts, statuary, etc. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Buddhist_Art ; http://www.screenbox.net/files/Gandhara.pdf) There were eventually minor kings of Macedonian/Greek descent ruling as far east as northeast India (Patna) ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Greek ). See this story of the Heliodorus column found in north-central India (http://www.gosai.com/chaitanya/saran...cheology.html), a very early case of a Greek having specific knowledge of Vedic religious texts. This is incredible to me and something I never learned in my earlier history studies.

The founding and destruction of the Greek city of Ai Khanum, a timespan 329 to 135 BCE, less than 200 years, found in what is now extreme northeast Afghanistan, is an amazing story (http://www.livius.org/aj-al/alexandr...dria_oxus.html ; http://www.zharov.com/dupree/chapter29.html ).

I have also learned that Zoroastrianism is much more important historically than I was taught as an undergraduate. Practitioners today are being harassed in Iran and elsewhere. Many have moved into India where there is a significant ongoing Zoroastrian community. Their practice of the preparation of the dead is quite unique for our day. They don't practice burial, as they believe it defiles the earth, but rather build enclosures (called a dokhma, or "tower of silence"), often on high ground, where the remains are dealt with "naturally." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towers_of_Silence ; http://www.deathonline.net/disposal/...roastrians.cfm ; http://www.wired.com/culture/lifesty.../2001/05/43436 ) There are ancient dokhmas all over Iran (http://www.flickr.com/photos/35615581@N00/209995443/ ; http://www.flickr.com/photos/andygilham/7387463/ ).

[IIC]

BTW Park...Those are nice photos...It was kinda funny on Friday night I was outside and this neighbor was walking by and took a pic of me...She said she enters the flickr contests all the time. I mentioned that you had some nice flickr's on the web...Doug