ParkTwain's Parlor

One-week results for last weekend's picks

Each of these is no more than 5% above its all-time high (of at least 30 days prior) with uptrending RSI between 65 and 75 as of end of last week. I'm looking for good near-term appreciation for each of these.

Looks to me that MCD is the ticket to ride right now for the risk-averse among us, based on its current chart strength and how it made a new ATH last week. Very impressive comback the last several years. Next earnings announcement is this Friday, Apr 20. I would be surprised if there isn't lots of "talk" in the financial media about this achievement for the remainder of this month. Despite the reporter's claim in the following article, according to chart data available for free at StockCharts.com, 47.00 (or right at it) was the high price for the period 1998 to 2001, but the April 13th close was 47.64.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070413/mcdonalds_outlook.html?.v=9

Lower PE candidates:

DCO (PE: 19.2, leading PEG: 0.89)
HWCC (PE: 19.8, leading PEG: 0.85) issue is younger than 1 year
MCD (PE: 16.8, leading PEG: 2.11)
SXT (PE: 18.8, leading PEG: 4.45)
TEX (PE: 19, leading PEG: 1.62)

Higher PE candidates:

CF (leading PEG: 3.14) nitrogen fertilizer company
DLB (leading PEG: 1.92)
FLIR (leading PEG: 1.48 )
FLO (leading PEG: 2.07)
MTW (leading PEG: 0.81)
MYE (leading PEG: 0.65)
NIHD (leading PEG: 0.87)
PORK (leading PEG: N/A)
SWHC (leading PEG: 0.9)
THQI (leading PEG: 1.46)
VCLK (leading PEG: 1.82)
WMS (leading PEG: 1.48 )

By end of the same week, here are the results:

DCO - 26.67, 29.33, +10.0%
HWCC - 29.65, 28.33, -4.5%
MCD - 47.64, 48.36, +1.5%
SXT - 27.04, 28.00, +3.55%
TEX - 73.95, 77.55, +4.87%
Avg of low-PE group picks: +3.1%
Avg of low-PE group picks (throw out best and worst): +3.3%

CF - 44.30, 44.00, -0.7%
DLB - 36.82, 37.00, +0.5%
FLIR - 38.30, 39.75, +3.8%
FLO - 31.45, 32.53, +3.4%
MTW - 65.87, 67.17, +2.0%
MYE - 19.59, 20.96, +7.0%
NIHD - 79.26, 77.94, -1.7%
PORK - 21.84, 22.00, +0.7%
SWHC - 15.19, 13.95, -8.2%
THQI - 36.16, 35.23, -2.6%
VCLK - 29.50, 29.60, +0.6%
WMS - 41.85, 41.74, -0.3%
Avg of high-PE group picks: +0.4%
Avg of high-PE group picks (throw out best and worst): +0.57%

For the week ...
DJI: +2.8%
NASDAQ composite: +1.4%
S&P 500: +2.2%
Russell 2000: 1.2%

Exotic Photo(s) of the Day - Extravaganza!

Homes, churches, and entire towns, built into rock formations ...

Kandovan, Iran:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=159973369&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne...9972901&size=o (interior of home)

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=159975033&size=o

Goreme, Turkey:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=273836967&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=199529711&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=221410845&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=88629942&size=l (monastery)

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=120915079&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=71711283&size=o (cave church interior)

Ortahisar, Turkey:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=222226163&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mal1/127544460/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mal1/126547536/

Uchisar, Turkey:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=24700004&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=435483154&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=422954631&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=120938536&size=l

Elsewhere ...

"Fairy Meadows" with view of Nanga Parbat (world's 8th tallest peak), northern Pakistan:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=142058146&context=photostream&size=o

Sheer rock towers in Baltoro Muztagh Range, northern Pakistan:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=311604973&size=o

"Oldest wooden church" in Europe, Kiev, Ukraine:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozzak/52382411/

Temple at Garni, Armenia (probably the northernmost and easternmost extant Roman temple of Greek style, 1cAD):

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=256895711&size=o

Ishakpasa Palace, Turkey:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=66158976&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photos/richardsouder/64209148/ (view from palace)


Remote monasteries ...

Tsminda Sameba Kazbegi Alaverdi, Republic of Georgia:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=127672122&size=o

Khor Virap, Armenia:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/24674184@N00/359953303/ (Mt. Ararat in distance)


Africa ...

Mosque among palms, Sudan:
http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne...9615356&size=o (FABULOUS!)

Kassala, Sudan, very unusual nearby mountains, near border with Eritrea:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=266937549&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=278381683&size=l

http://www.anasudani.net/kassala1.gif

Siwa Oasis, Egypt:

http://home.hiwaay.net/~jalison/siwa.html

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=60779484&size=l (ruins of old fortress city)

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=60776339&size=l

White Desert, Egypt:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=437805782&size=l

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=40575405&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photos/n0mad/218047718/

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=87435123&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=87434924&context=photostream&size=o

Namibian desert:
http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne...1315593&size=o (FABULOUS!)
http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne...0395783&size=o (STRIKING!)
http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne...7784508&size=l (AMAZING!)

[riverbabe]

Park, thank you for bringing those exotic photos here! They are breath-taking! What photography!

I had pictured in my mind those mountains in the Pakistan tribal areas. But I never thought I'd have the opportunity to see at least a part of them!

And, I had never imagined that Albania had mountains that spectacular! It was hard to tell just by cruising by.

You are a joy. Thank you. Riverbabe

[IIC]

Uh, Doug, what if they don't "show up" in the Oregon data either, but rather one of its towns' police blotters. The national economy ain't going to expand forever.

Wonder if they have guns?

Oh...Now I get it...The "economic data-gatherers" track illegals in California...But not in other States...No wonder all those big fancy casinos in Vegas are rollin' in the dough...

Uh, Doug, what if they don't "show up" in the Oregon data either, but rather one of its towns' police blotters. The national economy ain't going to expand forever.

Seen today among the comments at Techdirt.com

//
The RE industry is so full of corruption and unethical behavior that it is laughable for ANY group involved to claim some sort of superiority over a completely automated process. Kickbacks and under-the-table deals are the norm, not the exception.

Don't believe me? Try disputing the appraisal you receive as part of a loan application. I did - my appraisal on a re-fi came in low by at least $30K. Houses don't sell all that often in my neighborhood. One of the comps that was used was a foreclosure sale for the same model home one street over. The property had been trashed by the previous owner - yards dead, concrete poured down the drains, light fixtures and toilets stolen - the works. When I complained about the low appraisal, the loan company sent out a second appraiser. The second appraiser gave an identical value. When I questioned the second appraiser, she said that the loan company had sent the first appraisal to her, and that the first appraiser was the president of the local appraiser's association and "a close personal friend". The first appraiser told me that I could appeal to the state board, but "good luck, you still won't get the loan because there are only two appraisers approved by your loan company for this area". No way he was going to admit his mistake - he wouldn't even admit that using a trashed foreclosure sale as a comp without any correction factors was unreasonable. Dickhead cost me about $15K that I had to put into the deal to get the loan closed. In the long run it was still worth it to get the lower rate on the re-fi, but it was still very wrong.
//

Structural inefficiencies keep popping up in our almighty "free market" economy!

[IIC]

Disappear, as in disappear from detection by the economics data-gatherers.

Oh...Now I get it...The "economic data-gatherers" track illegals in California...But not in other States...No wonder all those big fancy casinos in Vegas are rollin' in the dough...

That's not what the last paragraph in your article says...And I quote;

José Manuel J. complained. “People are scattering up to Oregon and further north because there is little work here.”

Some may disappear from California...But I sorta thought Oregon was part of the USA too...Doug

Disappear, as in disappear from detection by the economics data-gatherers.

[IIC]

Economists won't see a big decline in construction employment if most of the workers were illegals to begin with. In the subsequent downturn in construction, those workers just "disappear." "Even the supervisors are Mexicans."

http://tinyurl.com/2algha

That's not what the last paragraph in your article says...And I quote;

José Manuel J. complained. “People are scattering up to Oregon and further north because there is little work here.”

Some may disappear from California...But I sorta thought Oregon was part of the USA too...Doug

Huge extent of illegal labor confounds economic data-logging

Picking up where the discussion left off in the Rob's Lobs thread, this article opens a window into the effects on illegal laborers in California of the downturn in home construction. Economists won't see a big decline in construction employment if most of the workers were illegals to begin with. In the subsequent downturn in construction, those workers just "disappear." "Even the supervisors are Mexicans."

http://tinyurl.com/2algha

Reliable economic and demographic data is based on an assumption that at least most of the economic activity taking place is traceable using conventional (legal) reporting mechanisms (wages paid, unemployment records, rental leases that declare actual occupancy, etc.).

As G.W. Bush is fond of saying, "small business is the backbone of this nation's economy." Small business is also the predominant employer of illegals, therefore the biggest scofflaws, and the bigger companies they contract with like it that way. This sets up a true enforcement nightmare for the U.S. ICE, which is also what everyone in business wants. It is the profits of small businesses and those with whom they contract, that are under threat by a change in the status quo toward enforcement of the U.S. immigration laws. Watch Dubya dance!

Exotic Photo(s) of the Day

Valbona Gorge in northern Albania:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=207225180&size=l

Thethi, Albania:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=214367218&size=o

Mt. Popa monastery (Buddhist), Myanmar:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=152498774&size=l

MCD or HWCC?

Going into this week's action, these two stocks' 1-year charts look pretty similar. (Adjust settings to display 1 year of data.) Each has been very strong as of end of last week. But MCD has just passed a previous all-time high made over 7 years ago. Does the market for MCD have that good a memory?

MCD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=mcd,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!ll14]

HWCC:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=hwcc,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!ll14]

But MCD is breaking out since Monday and HWCC is not. I guess all one can do is set one's alerts and let the market tell you what to do.

Exotic Photo of the Day

View of Hunza River valley and the mountain named Rakaposhi, taken from the 700-y.o. Baltit Fort in Karimabad, northern Pakistan:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=170316237&size=o

This map locates Karimabad, on the amazing Karakoram Highway:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/KKH.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoram_Highway

About Rakaposhi:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rakaposhi

Some all-time high breakout candidates, as of 13Apr2007

Each of these is no more than 5% above its all-time high (of at least 30 days prior) with uptrending RSI between 65 and 75 as of end of last week. I'm looking for good near-term appreciation for each of these.

Looks to me that MCD is the ticket to ride right now for the risk-averse among us, based on its current chart strength and how it made a new ATH last week. Very impressive comback the last several years. Next earnings announcement is this Friday, Apr 20. I would be surprised if there isn't lots of "talk" in the financial media about this achievement for the remainder of this month. Despite the reporter's claim in the following article, according to chart data available for free at StockCharts.com, 47.00 (or right at it) was the high price for the period 1998 to 2001, but the April 13th close was 47.64.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070413/mcdonalds_outlook.html?.v=9

Lower PE candidates:

DCO (PE: 19.2, leading PEG: 0.89)
HWCC (PE: 19.8, leading PEG: 0.85) issue is younger than 1 year
MCD (PE: 16.8, leading PEG: 2.11)
SXT (PE: 18.8, leading PEG: 4.45)
TEX (PE: 19, leading PEG: 1.62)

Higher PE candidates:

CF (leading PEG: 3.14) nitrogen fertilizer company
DLB (leading PEG: 1.92)
FLIR (leading PEG: 1.48 )
FLO (leading PEG: 2.07)
MTW (leading PEG: 0.81)
MYE (leading PEG: 0.65)
NIHD (leading PEG: 0.87)
PORK (leading PEG: N/A)
SWHC (leading PEG: 0.9)
THQI (leading PEG: 1.46)
VCLK (leading PEG: 1.82)
WMS (leading PEG: 1.48 )

Couple of ideas from rather thin research tonight

Looked at Barchart.com's list of high "weighted alpha" stocks (high volatility).

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=top~100~stocks.sec

On this list, look for those with RSI around 60 to 65 and presently rising for at least the last few days, AND with the -DI line (in an ADX +DI and -DI plot) tending to stay low (below 20) AND wherethe ADX line is about to turn upward at a reading of about 20. For my technical chart, I start with this page, then adjust the chart's attributes to show only 1 yr of data:

http://tinyurl.com/2xw499

Here is tonight's list of qualifying stocks:
SWK, SLP, JADE, TRA and TNH, SPAR, OMTR, APAC, IOSP, UCTT
(TRA and TNH are related companies.)

Only these are near a previous significant all-time high peak (for anticipating a breakout):
SWK, OMTR, UCTT

Additionally, I look at all the qualifying stocks in two ways:

1) assess the present "market riskiness" of share price in terms of its trailing P/E (lower P/E is better):
SWK (p/e 16)
TNH (p/e 20)
UCTT (p/e 27)
SPAR (p/e 28 )

2) assess the recent technical behavior (low -DI reading w/ ADX reading in "takeoff" position of breaking up through 20):
TRA, TNH, OMTR, APAC, IOSP

So here are the recommendations from among the qualifying stocks:
SWK, OMTR, UCTT
TRA, TNH, APAC, IOSP

OMTR is the only one with pps near a previous significant all-time high peak AND with attractive recent technical behavior as described above. However, its trailing P/E is N/A.

Just a couple of ideas to get your brain churning.

(I see that our Rob has UCTT as his current pick in POTW contest. That's been a good move so far, obviously.)