RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[Louetta]

Thank you R.B. for that detailed response. I was kind of hoping AMRN might manage to stay independent and might make a decent long-term holding if their drugs are successful. Not sure how practical that hope is.

[riverbabe]

Would you care to opine on AMRN? 'Preciate any input you may have...

Hi Louetta! Welcome back! I am holding some AMRN on all the takeover rumors. But you know what those rumors are worth. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2520...ce=marketwatch
It has an apparently fantastic drug to lower triglycerides when taken with a statin. Since Lipitor is coming off patent soon, it is thought that maybe GSK or PFE are interested. The CEO keeps bragging that the company has more suitors than the 17 staff they have. Get a load of the institutional ownership! http://whalewisdom.com/stock/amrn
ALSO from 2/11/11: Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:01 pm
ronpopeil Share Monday, February 14, 2011 12:29:17 PM
Re: Biorunner post# 40142 Post # of 40153

AMRN - From Maffais.com (off the yahoo board)

WOW! Instituitional Activity is picking up Nicely!

These were filed on 2-11-11

Levin Capital Strategies L P added 76,000
Knott David M Sold all -516,213
Suttonbrook Capital Management Lp new holding 449,700
Susquehanna International Group Llp new holding45,605
Renaissance Technologies Corp added 486,444
Knight Capital Group Inc added 22,279
Franklin Resources Inc added 83,000
Duquesne Capital Management L L C new holding 700,000
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp added more 3,223,400

Previous Shares Held By Institutions 31,636,393 Net Shares Changed (Pct): 6,446,975 (20.37%)
Current Shares Held By Institutions "Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia"

http://www.amarincorp.com/products/amr101-for-reducing-cardiovascular-risk.html

The MARINE phase 3 trials have met the primary endpoint and an NDA is expected soon in 2011. http://investor.amarincorp.com/relea...leaseID=533361
The ANCHOR phase 3 trials are underway. If successful NDA and good ANCHOR results, the drugs could be block busters and pose a threat to any generic Lipitor. http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/N...=amarin&rank=2
I don't know, anybody's guess at this point. It could be a long wait. But the price is right and I'm willing to wait a while but bail at bad news.

[Louetta]

WHAT???? Louetta is back???...I was just asking if anyone had heard from you on my chat a month or so ago.

Still in Academia???

I am indeed back. Even bought one of our fearless leaders picks a week or so ago. 'Fraid I'm not in academia any more, failed the PhD qualifiers. They fiinally figured out I only got into college because I could swim. Thank you for asking. How are you?

[IIC]

WHAT???? Louetta is back???...I was just asking if anyone had heard from you on my chat a month or so ago.

Still in Academia???

[Louetta]

Would you care to opine on AMRN? 'Preciate any input you may have...

[billyjoe]

River,
Some nice action today in AFFX. I'm not worried anymore.........at least for today.

----------billy

[riverbabe]

Mnkd

Looks like we were right not to take the risk for a change. Comments on yesterday's earnings release and CC.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11004597/1/mannkinds-founder-shuts-his-wallet.html

[riverbabe]

VERY interesting...

River check out this article from Forbe's Magazine .....my brother read about PYMX while sipping coffee at Borders Reading the magazine , which he deftly returned to the rack. I said no wonder Borders is Bankrupt LOL

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlangreth/2011/01/28/the-genius-chemist-and-his-assault-on-mutant-killer-bacteria/

Looks interesting ......but we have been down this road before.....only consolation is that all the sellers appear to have been wrung out!

Wow. Sounds like they're on to something very original. They're still in clinical trials, mostly Phase 2. I wonder how they will address the concerns (i.e. have clinical data that passes muster at the FDA) about safety...

"Wall Street remains skeptical. PolyMedix shares hover around a dollar. A key question is whether the drug will be able to distinguish bacteria from host as it goes about its killing business. PolyMedix Chief Executive Nicholas Landekic is optimistic--there have been no showstopper safety problems so far--but only big human trials can tell for sure." A good one to watch for results. Thank you!

[Peter Hansen]

River

River check out this article from Forbe's Magazine .....my brother read about PYMX while sipping coffee at Borders Reading the magazine , which he deftly returned to the rack. I said no wonder Borders is Bankrupt LOL

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlangreth/2011/01/28/the-genius-chemist-and-his-assault-on-mutant-killer-bacteria/

Looks interesting ......but we have been down this road before.....only consolation is that all the sellers appear to have been wrung out!

[riverbabe]

River,
Now you've got me scared ! I do own a bunch of AFFX also.

--------------billy

Actually, I don't consider AFFX a baby bio. It actually has some revenue. I am holding it only as a possible TO target. Remember BEC? This link is to some comments on the zoo board. If it doesn't get bot soon, I'm out.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=51280&tid=3024&mid=3024&tof=1&frt=2#3024

[billyjoe]

River,
Now you've got me scared ! I do own a bunch of AFFX also.

--------------billy

[riverbabe]

Required reading!

This article should be required reading for anyone thinking about investing in baby biotechs! Fair warning!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/05/us-drugs-fda-idUSTRE7135FR20110205

[riverbabe]

FWIW, the only biotechs I own now are AFFX, BMRN, DNDN, GENZ (BO candidates?), NYMX (I like it, speculative) and NVS (for the divi 4.17% yield and possible growth). I am currently red in AFFX, BMRN, DNDN, green in GENZ and NYMX, up 7.3% in NVS (excl. divis). Not spectacular, but I'm patient.

[riverbabe]

River,
Thanks for the article. I had not seen it. These biotechs drive me crazy. Beth has had VGHCX for years and it's just caught up to its price of 3 years ago but still a ways to go to match 2007. With health care prices going up constantly, the money seems to be going into a black hole. The hospital workers aren't getting it, the stock prices don't reflect the increases, it's a real mystery to me.

----------billy

They drive me crazy too. The baby biotechs rely on catalysts to boost them and if it's nay instead of yea they lose big time. Most of the time, it's a coin toss, called a "binary event." Most of them are very thinly traded so when quite a few people pile in (like subscribers following their guru's tip) the price move up is quite spectacular. Same goes for a nay decision. Just try to sell your shares at that point! The down move is also spectacular. So, 2011 is my year for being conservative on these.

The big biotechs have different problems, but not too different. Like CELG, e.g. Spreading the risk, like Beth's fund, is some protection but tends to even things out so the price movements are smaller, but you have to be more patient, and when biotechs are out of favor, even more patient.

The best luck I have had in the past is owning the right one at the precise time of the big buyout. This has happened at least four times (in the last ten or so years. ouch) At least my grandkids college fund benefitted so well from AstraZeneca's buyout of Medimmune (my so-called broker named MEDI my sacred cow because I refused to sell it hoping for buyout) that they (all 8 of them) are funded for 1+ years. The oldest is graduating this year and will have enough to pay off all his student loans and a load of cash besides, in spite of the $400 a month for living expenses he's gotten for two years already.

[billyjoe]

River,
Thanks for the article. I had not seen it. These biotechs drive me crazy. Beth has had VGHCX for years and it's just caught up to its price of 3 years ago but still a ways to go to match 2007. With health care prices going up constantly, the money seems to be going into a black hole. The hospital workers aren't getting it, the stock prices don't reflect the increases, it's a real mystery to me.

----------billy