RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[Louetta]

Do takeover rumors ever really come to fruition?

ANDS did a month ago. AMRN might more likely benefit from a patent approval or positive results from the FDA on their NDA for AMR101. If I were a takeover person I'd feel better after those events tho the price is a lot better right now.

I have this bias toward what Orbimed does. Their 3rd quarter filing with the SEC showed they initiated positions in TEVA PTX DNDN ECYT and GRFS. The positions in the first two are 2-3 times those of the others. I found all of them interesting. Must admit I never heard of PTX. DNDN was an interesting choice at this time I thought.

[em26jamie]

Do takeover rumors ever really come to fruition?

[riverbabe]

Just my 2 Cents , but my program notes the the Long Term & Short Term trend is DOWN for AMRN and future prospects look dismal. Of course anything can happen ,but the program also issues a SELL rating fror AMRN. Take it for what it is worth.........Take Care Phoenix7

Oh yes! It's been a rumored takeover candidate this year, and now 2012. I hate to capitulate if there is any chance I might lessen the loss. I totally appreciate your info. It's only a matter of making the best of a bad trade.

[Phoenix7]

River re amrn

Very interesting! I'm down a bundle in this. The latest non-final rejection from the patent office on ANCHOR doesn't look good. I'm very very tempted to take a better look at this patent prosecution. Beginning to think they need another pair of experienced eyes to find the key point for patentability. Now, if they could only afford me...wait, wait, I could get paid if I'm successful and my stock goes green.

Just my 2 Cents , but my program notes the the Long Term & Short Term trend is DOWN for AMRN and future prospects look dismal. Of course anything can happen ,but the program also issues a SELL rating fror AMRN. Take it for what it is worth.........Take Care Phoenix7

[riverbabe]

I posted the above in June based on reports by Optionmonster. Now there is another:

... today optionMONSTER's systems show that 3,600 March 10 calls have traded against open interest of 1,056 and that more than 6,000 March 15 calls have traded against open interest of 290. The largest blocks traded within seconds, including 1,750 March 10 calls bought for $1 and 3,500 March 15 calls sold at the bid price of $0.25. The trade cost $0.50 to open, which is the maximum loss if AMRN remains below $10 through expiration on March 16. The maximum gain comes if the stock is up around $15 at expiration, a level last seen in July....

June's trade came to nothing. Be interesting to see if anything happens here. AMRN closed at 6.75 today.

Very interesting! I'm down a bundle in this. The latest non-final rejection from the patent office on ANCHOR doesn't look good. I'm very very tempted to take a better look at this patent prosecution. Beginning to think they need another pair of experienced eyes to find the key point for patentability. Now, if they could only afford me...wait, wait, I could get paid if I'm successful and my stock goes green.

[Louetta]

"A large option trader is playing the upside in Amarin, thinking that the drug developer has more gas in the tank ...

Today's option trade was a bullish call spread : A block of 4,000 June 22 calls was bought for $0.60 and an equal number of June 25 calls was sold for $0.20. That translates into a net cost of $0.40, with the potential profit of 650 percent if AMRN closes at or above $25 on expiration.

The shares are up 1.36 percent to $17.16 in afternoon trading. Given the amount that AMRN has to appreciate in the next five weeks for the calls to pay off, the investor apparently thinks that an explosive move is possible ..."

I posted the above in June based on reports by Optionmonster. Now there is another:

... today optionMONSTER's systems show that 3,600 March 10 calls have traded against open interest of 1,056 and that more than 6,000 March 15 calls have traded against open interest of 290. The largest blocks traded within seconds, including 1,750 March 10 calls bought for $1 and 3,500 March 15 calls sold at the bid price of $0.25. The trade cost $0.50 to open, which is the maximum loss if AMRN remains below $10 through expiration on March 16. The maximum gain comes if the stock is up around $15 at expiration, a level last seen in July....

June's trade came to nothing. Be interesting to see if anything happens here. AMRN closed at 6.75 today.

[billyjoe]

Billy, are you still in this? I just looked at the price. Wow, what a haircut! River

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...el_article%3D1

River,
Unfortunately Mrs.Billyjoe still is. I wasn't paying attention and a couple days made a big difference. The good news is HCA was less than 1% of her retirement portfolio so overall the loss is less than 1/3rd of 1%. She can still afford to give me my allowance.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

Hca

Billy, are you still in this? I just looked at the price. Wow, what a haircut! River

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703453304576596792377399236.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

[riverbabe]

Some advice

I love this advice from Marty Chenard for us market-weary, less wealthy than we were, "how much worse can it get?" optimists:

"Be patient, avoid extreme volatility conditions as we still have now, and wait ... wait for the normalize swings to come back into the market in the form of sensible trending. You would not get in the middle of a dog fight in real life, then why do so when there is one in the market? Normal trending and market swing conditions will come back, whether it be an up trend or down trend ... they will come back. For now, be patient, go fishing, play, talk to your children, be a good grandfather, a good mother, a good citizen. Give the market a little breathing room, and make no trades that will interfere with your sleep."

[riverbabe]

So Riverbabe, you still like DNDN or is it dead money for a while?

It keeps rising because it's such a bargain in demand right now. In that way, I don't think it's dead. But it might take quite a few quarters of slow but steady growth and good predictions before it approximates its former price. I'm not selling my stock shares now, but bot more at 12 to average down. Depends on how short term your trading is. And I gather you're an agile short term trader. There are probably better opportunities for a short term quick recovery elsewhere IMHO. I will most likely sell when it gets to a better loss-reduction point. Personally, am not going long term on this one any more. There are other fish in the non-biotech sea.

[wooish]

So Riverbabe, you still like DNDN or is it dead money for a while?

[riverbabe]

River,
If the market has bottomed, I'd say there's a better than 50% chance it has, these high div. stocks such as HQL , especially when divs are reinvested , will really pay off in the long term. I panicked going to all cash when the big correction came in 1987 and it cost me big time. Then again, I've been waiting for the big payday in health stocks for more than a couple years.

--------------billy

billy, I have found that the big payday occurs when they get bought out by big pharma. Choosing the right one is like shooting craps; but HQL might hold it and you might see a jump there. I have gotten lucky a few times in the past; but few and far between. Have been holding a few that look promising, but am running out of patience. Need to see some green in them, then I'm gone. I still have 40% of the HQL shares from the buyback. In no hurry to sell because of the divi and another buyback announcement.

[billyjoe]

River,
If the market has bottomed, I'd say there's a better than 50% chance it has, these high div. stocks such as HQL , especially when divs are reinvested , will really pay off in the long term. I panicked going to all cash when the big correction came in 1987 and it cost me big time. Then again, I've been waiting for the big payday in health stocks for more than a couple years.

--------------billy

[riverbabe]

Any one got my thread message yet? Heh heh. Buying baby biotechs is a dangerous game. Not for the faint of heart or risk adverse.

[riverbabe]

Dndn link

Here's one:

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Dendreons-Bull-Story-In-Intensive-Care-DNDN-JNJ-SGEN-HGSI-AMGN-BIIB0809.aspx