PCLN ==> The Arbor Day Winner

[skiracer]

I am still watching the stock look for a bottom. i'm amazed that it has gone down this far. I'll will post a weekly chart a little later on today. when this pops it is going to be an explosion but exercising patience and waiting for a bottom right now is the best anyone can do. what i dont like is that on a day where the market is up 110 pts this stock is down almost 10 pts.

[skiracer]

here's a weekly chart on PCLN and some thoughts on what i think may happen or could happen with the stock over the next day or two. as i stated i'm waiting for a bottom and an entry. where or when is the question. i think there will be an explosive move up to previous highs around MM's entry once that bottom is put in. the stock is just to sound fundamentally and to large a market share to be kept down. i think the time element is going to happen quickly when it does reverse so if one were looking at the July 10 $220 strike call, which is now bid $16 / asked $16.20, and has 65 days left to expiration the time element would be room enough for the stock to get back to previous highs and maybe even time for it to get to ernies target price or some part of the way. with the options make sure you leave early enough to maximize the gains before the time decay element begins to take effect.
I am very confident that PCLN will make it back to MM's entry point. that alone will make that call option appreciate quite nicely.


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[skiracer]

I just bought the July 10 $220 call @ $16.30 on PCLN

[mrmarket]

I just bought the July 10 $220 call @ $16.30 on PCLN

Yay..ski is on my side!

[skiracer]

Yay..ski is on my side!

i liked the pick from the start. but the entry point has nothing to do with my liking the pick. i would say that i have liked 85/90% of all your picks but some of the timing in my opinion has been off. but the proof is in the pudding and the results. you never know really. you think you know but then they do what they want to do anyway. i thought i had the bottom this afternoon for sure and made the option trade with the july 10 $220 calls at $16.30 and as soon as i made my entry they dropped to $15.20 or - 1.10. but i liked the way it held up this afternoon. it could have rolled over at the close but didnt and actually strengthened by the end of the day. i think we're going to be in good shape for the rest of the week. i think the selling may be exhausted. anyway i bought 4 contracts @$1630 a each for $6520 and im down $440 already. so please dont anyone rely on me.

[microchips]

In the interest of........

i liked the pick from the start. but the entry point has nothing to do with my liking the pick. i would say that i have liked 85/90% of all your picks but some of the timing in my opinion has been off. but the proof is in the pudding and the results. you never know really. you think you know but then they do what they want to do anyway. i thought i had the bottom this afternoon for sure and made the option trade with the July 10 $220 calls at $16.30 and as soon as i made my entry they dropped to $15.20 or - 1.10. but i liked the way it held up this afternoon. it could have rolled over at the close but didn't and actually strengthened by the end of the day. i think we're going to be in good shape for the rest of the week. i think the selling may be exhausted. anyway i bought 4 contracts @$1630 a each for $6520 and I'm down $440 already. so please don't anyone rely on me.

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL

[skiracer]

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL

i was looking for a better performance today chips but no cigar. thats a cheaper entry you got for yourself. good luck to us all.

[microchips]

Ski.
Down to $13.10 at the moment but AH they went to over $215 now back to original like you say should do well on them. Just to cheer everone up the winds around the UK and a lot of Europe are beginning to come from the South which means the airports are open and PCLN should start picking up more trade!!

[microchips]

Now AH $217.88 go baby go!!!!!!!!

[tiedyed1]

Jul 220 calls

The PCLN fundamentals are solid and while environmental incidents (natural and man made) have screwed with our travel industry PCLN is the leader and with a significantly better sentiment than 6 months ago summer travel reservations are being made now.

Friday's have more than ever become the automatic pullback day as there are valid fears going into a weekend; however, I am taking the position that there are high probabilities of solutions and good news forthcoming rather than another catasrophic event.

With that said I picked up 2 contracts of PCLN July 220's for 10.50 this morning as the bottom is in or near and the next weeks is bound to have some positive pops to bring PCLN back to in the money levels.
Also, with PCLN volatility and not getting greedy, these Jul 220 may actually be a good place to trade and something to pop in and out of over the next 3-4 weeks.

Thank you Ernie for the great write up and as with most of your picks I am loving PCLN.

Keep On Keepin' On!

[tiedyed1]

uh, Jazz?
are you on the right board?

[mystiky]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

[skiracer]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[skiracer]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
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[microchips]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
__________________

Ski.
The 210 calls look pretty good at $9.20 if not a bit expensive. like i said earlier i think i will stop at 21 contracts cos i hate to see my account in the red although it shouldnt be for too long!!!!! As for holidays a lot of people i know are going long haul ie: USA,Mexico,Australia etc or staying home because Europe at the moment is a rip-off and is full of Russians and the old communist block tourists.