PCLN ==> The Arbor Day Winner

[mrmarket]

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

[skiracer]

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

thanks ernie. i hope so to. i've got a few sheckles in it now myself. but this recent correction has been as poignant as almost any that i have seen in such a short time frame. it's a great company with a solid business model, strong market share, and definitely a player in the travel realm. i would be surprised if it didnt come back. owning the stock and owning the call options are two different animals though and the time constraints / time decay with the calls will be a factor in my play. i thought today started out great and my optimisim was high but no cigar. i'm somewhat perplexed though and looking at it's charts i keep anticipating where i think it should put a bottom in at but i havent been right yet with it. im still optimistic and believe in the stock and the trade but this has been one hell of a correction in a short time frame.

[mystiky]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[mrmarket]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

[skiracer]

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

mystky,
your article does bring out some significant points and i wont try to deny them because they are valid. but i do believe that this volcanic ash situation and the Greece bailout will pass as everything does and things will return to normal. personally i like to see the euro falling against the dollar. that alone will entice a larger number of people and businesses to visit Europe. a lower euro will provide more bang for your buck which is the fuel that feeds travelers and vacationers thinking about going there or anywhere for that matter. believe me when i say that i am not in love with Priceline or any other stock. like ernie, i believe this is a temporary situation that will provide alot of investors with a great entry point in the stock. to back up your feelings you should buy some puts or maybe short the stock itself. i would be interested in where you feel the bottom is.

[mystiky]

Gosh, I am really sorry to see this thing go lower and lower. I think that 160 is a possibility now, and if that doesn't hold, the 140 gap looks, gulp, realistic.

The markets are oversold now, and we could see a squeeze to the 195-200 level. But I doubt this see 220 anytime soon.

mystky,
i would be interested in where you feel the bottom is.

[skiracer]

Gosh, I am really sorry to see this thing go lower and lower. I think that 160 is a possibility now, and if that doesn't hold, the 140 gap looks, gulp, realistic.

The markets are oversold now, and we could see a squeeze to the 195-200 level. But I doubt this see 220 anytime soon.

you just might be right mystiky. i thought it would have put a bottom in way before this. i was looking at the weekly myself filling that gap at the 140 level could be given valid consideration. 160 is definitely plausible. i'm hoping not though. the S&P upgraded it yesterday with a target of 220. i think 220 is also feasible. whether its more feasible than 160 remains to be seen as it is just about in the middle of the two right now. there has been alot of selling and yesterday was a killer. maybe we'll get a bounce today.

[skiracer]

Well if you owned PCLN in any way except for puts or a short position you had to feel better for the way it finished the week. Back over $190 after being at $250.40 on May 11th and dropping to $176.77 on May 21st. That's $73.63 pts. or 29.4% in 10 days.
It closed today +$10.24 or up 5.6% but still down $58.90 or 23.5% from it's May 11 high. Here's a couple of charts on the recent action and what we might expect next week. The 1st chart is the 60 minute and it will give a pretty good picture of what has transpired from the high of $250.40 on May 11 to the low of $176.77 on May 21.


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the 2nd chart is the weekly and I will point out some levels of resistance and support after today action and what could be expected from the technical aspects of the chart.


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What to expect in the coming week? so much depends on the markets and how they track. if they track further upward the chances that PCLN will follow the market are good that it will move with the market. on the other hand if the markets continue down then expect PCLN to move down. Today was an exceptionally good day as it showed that there is still interest, belief, and strength in the stock itself. I was happy to see that the stock kept it's strength all day and didn't whipsaw up and down or sell off at the close. It closed at it's high of the day range which is a big positive for what might be expected next week. Alot is going to depend on the markets and what is going on in the world, especially Europe and Greece this coming week. The democrats,"financial reform" has passed and I think the selling from that is probably already built into the markets and stocks in general. Today was a good day built on investors, institutions, and hedge funds picking up some great bargains on good stocks. PCLN being one of them. It was a good day and offered reinforcement for those that believe there is some strength on stocks and the markets in general. I didn't buy any more calls but it would have been a good time to dabble with some more of those July 10 / $220 calls. There still might be time early Monday a.m.

[skiracer]

C is another stock that I am watching. I mentioned that I had bought June 10/$4 puts a couple of weeks ago on the premise that I thought the govt selloff would pull the price down and I was looking for a bottom somewhere around $3.25 / 3.50 range. Well it got as low at $3.54 yesterday and recouped .26 of that with today's bounce. Will it hold this level is another question? I think the govt selling will continue to effect the downward pressure and will bring the stock further down but if the markets continue with today's strength and move farther up this coming week it will slow the downward slide in C considerably and the govt might get all their shares out over that period of time which would then give a green light to get back on board. Realistically C is a major player and it is very cheap right now if you think about it. Initially I was looking for $3.50 for a long entry and I still think I will get that. Maybe not $3.25 though and $3.50 is really cheap for this stock so if I see $3.50 or so I wouldn't want to miss out on that price waiting for another .25 to $3.25. $3.50 would be real good. Here's a 60 min chart showing the action over the past 11 days and the continuing drop in price.


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And here is the weekly showing some support and resistance points


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[dmk112]

ski, you didn't buy today??

[skiracer]

ski, you didn't buy today??

not yet dmk. i'm waiting to see what it does on monday. but i think the govt sellling is close to coming to and end. but i do like it to the long side once that selling is finished.

[microchips]

The bugger has gone to sleep!!!

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.

[mrmarket]

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.

For a bonus pick, who can pronounce the name of the volcano?

[skiracer]

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.

this recent volcanic action was like a gigantic orgasim. now it's spent and just wants to have a smoke and lay back.

[mrmarket]

this recent volcanic action was like a gigantic orgasim. now it's spent and just wants to have a smoke and lay back.

LOL...feeling like a good cabernet right now myself.