MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

this is and will continue to be the best stock on the NYSE, many major event will push this higher now till mid summer..enjoy the ride..

Elan ..ELN will make a run like DNA ...just dont get stopped out ...

[kingofthehill]

23-Mar-04 07:44 ET In Play Elan Corp resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley (ELN) 18.40: -- Update -- Morgan Stanley resumes coverage on ELN with an Overweight rating and $30 target; firm's investment thesis is that:
1) the co's R&D platform is more valuable than expectations (mainly Antegren),
2) successful restructuring of the balance sheet will result in less financial risk,
3) legal risks will diminish without material harm to the co, and
4) mgmt has the skills to build an integrated pharma/biotech co.


23-Mar-04 07:27 ET In Play Biogen Idec and Elan to submit MS treatment for European approval (BIIB) 52.32: Biogen Idec and Elan (ELN 18.40) announce that they intend to submit to the European Agency for the Evaluation of Medicinal Products an application for approval of Antegren as a treatment for multiple sclerosis. The companies expect to submit the filing in the summer of 2004.

[kingofthehill]

3/23 Morgan Stanley target $30.00
3/29Deutsche Bank target raised to $26.00

3/30Davy's Brokerage Dublin price target increased to $23.50

Elan (Buy, Current Price $19.95)

"Don't forget the Alzheimer's programme"

Frova rights sold. In a 27-page report released today, we discuss the Alzheimer's market in terms of the increase in number of sufferers expected over the next 20 years and the degree of market penetration expected should an effective cure be discovered. Alzheimer's is a progressively debilitating disease affecting a growing number of people. There are currently over 13m sufferers worldwide, 2m in the US alone. As increasing age is one of the most important risk factors, the number of sufferers is forecast to grow exponentially from 2011 onwards as the baby-boomer generation hit 65. It could reach 37m by 2025. The current market of $1.8bn is split between four drugs that do not cure the disease but simply alleviate symptoms and delay disease progress. An increasing target population and improved market penetration (currently at 30% in the US and 14% in Europe) will, we believe, drive the market to top $6bn by 2010 with the potential for exponential growth to $21bn by 2020. Within this environment, Elan's candidate drug, currently in Phase I clinical trials, (one of 79 pipeline drugs reviewed) has the potential to enter a buoyant market in 2009/2010, which could support a number of $1bn plus drugs. Should the compound show the same degree of efficacy AN-1792 demonstrated before withdrawal, it has the potential to conservatively capture a 10% market share, which by 2012 could equate to $1.7bn. In relative terms, Elan is only trading at a 6% premium to its peers on 2005 EV/EBITDA. Given the potential upside from Antegren, the market generally supports a 20-25% premium on such a biotech stock, implying a price of $22.60 to $23.50. We, therefore, retain our Buy recommendation raising our price target to $23.50 (from $17.00). // In separate news, Elan this morning announced the termination of its development of licence agreements with Vernalis regarding Frova. Vernalis has agreed to purchase Elan's North American rights for the migraine drug for a total of $55m. Elan will receive $5m up front, followed by $20m and $25m at the end of 2004 and 2005 respectively. In addition, Vernalis will pay Elan $5m by the end of 2004 for the existing inventory. Elan's co-promotion agreement with UBC Pharma will be terminated with Elan paying UBC c.$10m as a result. This agreement will see Elan refocus its pain salesforce for the expected approval and launch of both Prialt and Antegren.

[mjmilam]

Hey, King,

Your ELN pick was brilliant.

Got any more like that one? )

MJ

[kingofthehill]

it still love this stock and continue to buy ELAN

$35-40.00 by year end

Take alook at the huge buys today on ELN

[kingofthehill]

ÉLAN CLOSED AT $21.00 YESTERDAY !!! STILL ROOM TO MAKE A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND

Under the "Current Account" rubric (light commentary on market events) in today's Irish Times:

"Elan's prescription for recovery pays off

If any of Elan's promising pipeline of drugs have even half the powers of recovery demonstrated by its shares of late, the company's future seems assured.
The drug group is once again back among the largest companies on the Irish Stock Exchange after a phenomenal first quarter performance from the shares, which has seen them appreciate by 199 per cent.
As of yesterday, Elan boasted a market capitalisation of 6.5 billion euro, leaving it in fourth place behind AIB, Bank of Ireland and CRH and accounting for nearly 10 per cent of the ISEQ.
It is a little more than two years since the shares collapsed from more than $65 to less than $2, shocking investors and wiping millions off the value of pension funds and other share-based investments.
But with its asset-disposal and restructuring programme complete, and its focus narrowed to three key areas, the company seems to be back on track.
Indeed, so long ago do the events of February 2002 now seem that the company felt confident enough to reward its board, including the same set of non-executive directors that presided over the share price crash two years ago, with a grant of share options this week. Seems all has been forgiven

[kingofthehill]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B338F84CE%2DCE2F%2D4575%2D8E80%2DF5C57B0F2455%7D

[Michaelk005]

Excellent pic king.. I will pick up some shares soon..

[kingofthehill]

ING DIRECT UPGRADES ELAN

Elan
“Elan – not for the feint of heart

While risks from debt obligations and an SEC review remain, our analysis suggests launch of Elan's Antegren could transform the MS market. We therefore upgrade our recommendation to BUY from Sell.”

“Our base valuation, which supports the current share price, assumes Antegren sales reach US$2.5bn with operating margins of 72%. This suggests a fair value of US$20.3.
• However, our market analysis suggests upside in our forecasts. In MS alone sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons. We have assumed that there is a 50% chance that Antegren will achieve this upside scenario. This supports a share price of US$24.85.”

“Scenario 1
• Sales of Antegren reach US$2.28bn in multiple sclerosis. Antegren is launched in mid-2005 (we do not assume Antegren receives expedite review).
• Sales of Antegren reach US$250m in Crohn's and is launched in 2006. This assumes a 30%penetration of the TNF non-responder group of patients.
• Our DCF valuation using these assumptions suggests a fair value of US$20.3.
Scenario 2
• Sales of Antegren in MS reach US$3.5bn. This assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons and a launch in early 2005 following expedite review.
• Sales of Antegren in Crohn's reach US$500m after launch in late 2005. This assumes a 50% penetration of the TNF non-responder group of patients in addition to use as maintenance therapy in a small proportion of TNF responders.
• Our DCF valuation using these assumptions suggests a fair value of US$29.4.”

“Risk-adjusted DCF
We have assumed that there is a 50% chance that Antegren will achieve our upside scenario 2. We have therefore conducted a DCF analysis adding risk-adjusted incremental Antegren revenues to our base case scenario 1. This valuation suggests a fair value of US$24.85.”

[kingofthehill]

The Irish patient is on the mend
Elan’s chairman saved the company only by raising cash from drug disposals, writes Ciaran Hancock



IT is one of the great corporate recovery stories. Elan, the pharmaceuticals group that was once Ireland’s most valuable company, was on the brink of collapse two years ago — brought low by an accounting scandal that earned it the label of “Europe’s Enron”.
Elan had used a multitude of joint-venture schemes to inflate its profits and hide the full costs of its research and development. As the facts emerged, the company’s shares collapsed along with its credibility. With America’s Securities and Exchange Commission pursuing an investigation, it looked almost impossible for Elan to meet the repayments on its enormous debts.



Garo Armen, an American, was the Elan director chosen to replace Donal Geaney, the Irish accountant who, as chairman, was responsible for the group’s rapid growth in the late 1990s.

“For about three months from the beginning of July 2002 through to the end of September, every day, every hour was critical,” Armen told The Sunday Times. “Any one of many things could have made the company collapse. We were on the hook every single day until we had an agreement to sell our first major asset.”

But Elan has survived. With its debts under control, it seems to have a future once more, much of it based on the promise of Antegren, a treatment for multiple sclerosis and Crohn’s disease. Elan’s shares, quoted in New York and London, traded below $3 last year, but have rebounded to about $20.

Armen might even have a chance of keeping the rash promise he made at a stormy shareholder meeting in August 2002 — that the shares would return to their previous high of above $60 within three years. All he needed was time, he pleaded.

“I stand by my comments at that meeting,” said Armen. “It’s a personal conviction but I think the company’s pipeline (of new drugs) is so strong that shareholders will be appropriately rewarded if we continue to perform.”

When several of Elan’s directors approached Armen to ask him to take over from Geaney, he already had a demanding day job as chairman and chief executive of Antigenics, a cancer vaccine development company he co-founded in 1994.

For the next year Armen worked every day, clocking up between 80 and 90 hours a week, dividing his time between the two companies as he fought to save Elan.

When Armen took charge, bondholders and other creditors were screaming for their money. Debts peaked at $4.5 billion, about half of which was close to maturity. In comparison. Elan’s market value had sunk to little more than $400m. Armen puts it succinctly: “It was a mess.”

The first break came in October 2002, when Armen sold the North American rights for Abelcet, an anti-fungal treatment, in a deal that set the tone for an extensive disposal programme. “Initial estimates by Wall Street were that we would sell that asset for between $250m and $300m; we ended up selling it for $365m,” said Armen. “That was a strong statement that our assets were more valuable than people thought.”

Many key staff considered quitting because of Elan’s perilous financial position. “All the vultures, headhunters and competitors were starting to circle because we had terrifically talented scientists. Had we lost them, the whole thing would have collapsed,” Armen said.

Since those dark days of mid-2002, Armen has reduced the number of joint ventures to about a dozen and sold roughly $2 billion worth of assets. In the past fortnight alone, it has disposed of its Zonegran and Frova drugs in deals that could net it about $268m before transaction costs. Further disposals could bring in another $500m before the year end, analysts predict.

[spikefader]

Excellent pic king.. I will pick up some shares soon..

This chart is screaming long now!

[Michaelk005]

Not only is the chart screeming long, but a very good opportunity to cetch a nice reversal is sitting in front of our faces,, look at MACD and a momentum chart.. Histogram is setting up perfect

[kingofthehill]

Elan partner on Antegren is BIIB, so thi should boost Elan also

this Weekends Barrons

Biogen Idec (BIIB: news, chart, profile), the merged biotech drugmaker, gets a secondhand plug from Alan Abelson in his Barron's column. Abelson cites a favorable outlook on the company from Larry Feinberg of Oracle Partners, who gained sizeably from his holdings in it last year. Feinberg says Biogen's Antegren medication for multiple sclerosis is likely to win FDA approval this summer. On the flip side of that expectation, Feinberg is shorting Serono (SRA: news, chart, profile), a Swiss maker of an existing multiple sclerosis drug. Overall, Abelson notes Feinberg's reversal on big drug stocks, as he sees a downturn ahead of political pushes for price controls, imports from Canada and easier licensing of generic drugs

[kingofthehill]

up 60 cents so far today, there might be an announcement this week on the companies progress on Alzheimer's Disease.



I love the chart posted above, nice work

[kingofthehill]

ROLL CALL !!!!!!!!!!!! ANYONE ELSE ON THIS TRAIN


ELN IS $21.71 READY FOR THE NEXT BREAKOUT !!!!!!