MY PICK IS ELN

[spikefader]

Spike I welcome and truly appreciate your input ..the next 30 days will be huge for this company, I'm betting on the integrity of the new management and the known trial results.
best of luck to all the conference call is Thursday
today was crazy

Hey that's cool that you are open to debate and input.

Yesterday's craziness leaves ELN with two nice intraday bullish inverted SHSs for earnings. Nice technical reason to buy it. The pivot is 20.30, which obviously will be 'pivotal'

<<-- that emoticon is what bulls will look like if there is a close beneath yesterday's LOD.

[New-born baby]

Where to next??

Spike,

I've been following the discussion between you and KingoftheHill. I have been careful to buy ELN and sell as I see it move backwards (I've probably bought and sold it 10 diffo times ). What do you think is next for ELN? I would appreciate your thoughts.

Thank You--and thank you for all of your Scientific Stock Analysis.

[spikefader]

Re: Where to next??

Spike,

I've been following the discussion between you and KingoftheHill. I have been careful to buy ELN and sell as I see it move backwards (I've probably bought and sold it 10 diffo times ). What do you think is next for ELN? I would appreciate your thoughts.

Thank You--and thank you for all of your Scientific Stock Analysis.

You're welcome.
Not long ago, I thought this stock looked like 'Field of Dreams', and now, alas, the charts speaks to me of bearishness. Trade 'em as you see 'em and you can't go wrong. Here's what I see:

[kingofthehill]

for those that play options the recent price movment south is a buying opportunity ..quick flip July options strike $20.00 and January 05 strike $25.00 .. options are very dangerous..so DONT USE THIS STOCK TO LEARN OPTIONS..

Financial Times London article today

.

COMPANIES UK & IRELAND: Elan plans $850m debt restructure to finance drugs
By David Firn, Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals Correspondent
Financial Times; May 14, 2004



Elan is planning to restructure about $850m (£506m) of debt to finance the launch of the new drugs that it says will return it to profitability by the end of next year.

The Irish biotechnology company reported a sharp decline in first-quarter revenues after selling products to avoid a cash-crunch last year.

It has about $1.1bn of liquid assets, but needs increased financial flexibility to invest in sales and marketing infrastructure for Antegren, a multiple sclerosis treatment it is developing with Biogen Idec, the world's third largest biotechnology company, and Prialt a painkiller.

Kelly Martin, who was brought in two years ago after an accounting scandal wiped 90 per cent off the company's market capitalisation, said Elan would launch a bond issue in the second half, to refinance two tranches of debt due over the next 12 months.

Mr Martin said: "I guess we are just another boring results-driven company now. We are very focused on the commercial roll-out of the pipeline and we are determined to keep delivering."

Pre-tax losses were down from $136.8m to $66.2m. Revenues fell 29 per cent to $159m, partly because of the sale of products. Revenues from retained products was up 7 per cent to $75.4m. The loss per share was 16 cents (36 cents).

The shares closed up 57 cents at €17.17 in Dublin, valuing Elan at €6.6bn (£4.6bn).

FT Comment

* Elan is not quite a boring results-driven companyyet. But it looks as though Mr Martin's medicine is working. He has unravelled a complex web of off-balance sheet research agreements and turned the Irish patient round to create a leaner, fitter biotechnology company that has seen its value rise more than threefold in 12 months. The real story now is all about the research and development pipeline and Elan's is more promising than many of its rivals. A bond should tide the company over until it becomes profitable. As long as there are no nasty surprises to delay the launch of Prialt and Antegren, Elan looks as though it is ready to check out of intensive care. If crucial Antegren data, expected to be released at a US gastroenterology conference next week, is positive, there may be upside also in the shares.

[spikefader]

Last stand for the bulls??

While I'm bearish on the stock for now, there are some technical reasons out there to buy it. If you look long enough, you'll find an argument for both cases. I'm bearish using channels, but it sets up for a long right now at current prices (20.00 to 20.10) based on the chart below.

If this setup fails and there is a daily close below the lower blue bollinger band, that will be just another reason to be bearish on it, and to look for a smart entry short, or to exit a long position.

[spikefader]

Patterns work No regrets I didn't take it. I stuck with my plan, so I'm smilin'

[kingofthehill]

what a day .. this is a crazy stock im selling my calls for MAY AND JUNE ..HOLDING JULY ... BUYING 05 06 ...GOTTA CUT BACK ON THE CRAZY SWINGS...MY MAY OPTIONS ARE UP 200% TODAY

SOLD..SOLD..ILL BUY NEXT YEARS ON THE DROP WHENEVER THAT IS I STILL HAVE TONS OF LONG STOCK..I WONT SELL FOR AT LEAST A YEAR ...BUT OPTIONS YOU GOTTA BUY AND SELL....LATER

[spikefader]

what a day .. this is a crazy stock im selling my calls ...

Nice.
I'm fading the spike.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5478#5478

EDIT: Out for a dime pain.

[kingofthehill]

Elan to Sponsor the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease
Monday May 17, 8:31 am ET


SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 17, 2004--Elan Corporation(NYSE:ELN - News):
ADVERTISEMENT


Company to present new data from its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Program
and host symposium featuring leading Alzheimer's disease researchers


Leading Researchers to Share Groundbreaking Information and Resources

on the Etiology, Pathology, and Treatment of Alzheimer's

Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. today announced that it is the premier sponsor of The 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders, presented by the Alzheimer's Association. New data from Elan's Alzheimer's research and development programs will be presented at the conference, and Elan will also host a symposium featuring leading Alzheimer's researchers from throughout the field. The conference will take place at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia from July 17th through July 22nd.

"Alzheimer's disease currently affects more than 13 million people worldwide and the number is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. At Elan, our scientists are deeply committed to advancing the understanding of Alzheimer's and ultimately finding an effective treatment for this devastating disease," said Dr. Dale Schenk, Elan's Chief Scientific Officer. "We are pleased to take a leading role in the International Conference and to actively support the open scientific exchange that is critical to identifying fundamental improvements in the care and treatment of people with Alzheimer's."

"There has been immense progress in Alzheimer research in the last two decades," said Sheldon Goldberg, President and CEO of the Alzheimer's Association, the organizers of the event. "The International Conference is the primary platform for showcasing new knowledge and new discoveries, and a forum for sharing information across research areas. We are at a critical time now where preventing Alzheimer's is an objective that we believe the research community can achieve in the next decade. The newest treatment advances in Alzheimer's disease and steps toward prevention will be on display in Philadelphia."

Elan has been at the forefront of Alzheimer's disease research for almost two decades, in particular in advancing the understanding of the beta-amyloid peptide - A-beta - that is the main building block of amyloid plaques, which are a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. Elan is also conducting research on beta secretase inhibitors and gamma secretase inhibitors. Both beta and gamma secretase contribute to the formation of A-beta.

Elan, in collaboration with Wyeth, is researching a number of novel immunotherapeutic approaches as potential treatments for Alzheimer's disease. The Elan-Wyeth research involving beta-amyloid and plaque will be the subject of a number of presentations at the conference, including key new findings from a Phase II immunotherapy clinical trial. While that compound is no longer in development, Elan and Wyeth have initiated a Phase I trial studying a new monoclonal antibody specifically designed and engineered to clear the neurotoxin beta-amyloid peptide that accumulates in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease.

At the conference, Elan will also present data on its research in beta secretase inhibitors and gamma secretase inhibitors.

It is currently estimated that 4.5 million people in the United States suffer from AD and more than 13 million worldwide. Given anticipated increases in the population age of the United States and other countries, it is expected that more than 37 million people worldwide will be afflicted by the disease by 2025. Additionally, by 2010, Medicare costs for beneficiaries with Alzheimer's are expected to increase by approximately 50 percent, to $50 billion, according to the Alzheimer's Association.

About Elan

Elan Corporation, plc is a neuroscience-based biotechnology company that is focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing and marketing advanced therapies in neurology, autoimmune diseases, and severe pain. Elan (NYSE: ELN - News) shares trade on the New York, London and Dublin Stock Exchanges. For additional information about the company

[spikefader]

[kingofthehill]

We are at $22.68 interday .. BIG NEWS IN THE AM


In a 44-page report issued today:

"Base Case Supports $27 Price Target
Completion of the restructuring program and resolution of the liquidity issues leaves Elan’s investment case squarely focussed on the potential of the pipeline. We expect Antegren to be approved in H1 2005 as a first-line treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS) and for the product to penetrate the MS market steadily gaining 28% market share by 2007. If a fast-track review is granted, approval for MS in Q4 2004 is possible.

We expect the progression of the pipeline on schedule to continue to benefit sentiment and allow the company to achieve operating profitability in H2 2005. Over the coming two months we expect significant pipeline progress with the filing of the BLA and MAA for Antegren for MS in the US and Europe by the end of Q2 2004, the possible early filing of Antegren for Crohn’s disease in Europe and the presentation of follow up Alzheimer’s disease Phase II trial data.

Valuation assessments based on either NPV/sum-of-the-parts or prospective earnings metrics support a
price target of $27. Within these valuation analyses, we have not attributed any value for Antegren’s use in rheumatoid arthritis, have assumed a 2006 launch for Crohn’s disease and have conservatively valued the Alzheimer’s research developments. Favourable clinical data in these areas over the coming quarters would likely provide upside to our valuation assessment, suggesting that further upside over our price target is possible. In addition, if Elan can exceed our conservative price assumption for Antegren a significantly higher price target is also supported (see page 7).
We re-iterate our Buy recommendation."

[kingofthehill]

I HOPE YOU GUYS ALL MADE MONEY TODAY... SPIKE YOU GOTTA BE NUTS TO SHORT THIS STOCK....

GOOD LUCK TO ALL ...READ THE NEWS..AFTER THE BELL

[spikefader]

SPIKE YOU GOTTA BE NUTS TO SHORT THIS STOCK....

Fortune favors the brave my friend. But seriously, I'd only be nuts if I shorted without a stop or failed to follow what the market tells me. The channel short failed, so I took a dime pain on it, which is a very acceptable loss.

Channel-wise, there is still no bullish channel break. I'll be looking to short another channel touch unless it turns up or breaks out in the meantime.

But looks like you snuck away with ignoring the short signal, so good for you

[kingofthehill]

these are not my numbers but the timeline is dead on , its been fun posting here and being able to read my thought all in one place,,this stock has 350 million shares out there so please dont think im pumping im just informing the readers here about the next 6 months of a HUGE NYSE STOCK....against the market this stock has performed...i AM not selling a share here.. I will not sell my July options until they file for MS with the FDA and some news of the ALZHEIMERS program>>>... YOU GUYS HAVE A 45-60 DAY WINDOW TO REALLY MAKE A NICE MOVE HERE...GOOD LUCK PLEASE READ UP ON THE COMPANY BEFORE BUYING
Potential Elan Newsflow/Events for the next year (updated 19-05-04):

Q2 ‘04
· Presentation of six month Antegren Phase III Crohn’s disease data at Digestive Disease Weekly conference today.
· Rheumatoid arthritis phase II trials begun (6 month trial).
· Antegren for MS filing with the FDA & in Europe in May (earlier than expected). Notification from the FDA within 60 days of whether fast-track review is granted.
· Prialt filing with the FDA in May and release of Phase III data.
· EPILs retired with sale of certain assets (including its holding in Galen).
· Resolution of the SEC investigation with a benign result.
· Settlement of class action suits with minimum impact on Elan’s bottom-line (“fcuk off” money for the lawyers) (paid for by insurance).
· Analysts up their price targets for Elan shortly thereafter, including coverage initiated by Merrill Lynch and UBS.
· Credit agencies upgrade Elan’s credit ratings.
· Sale of Myobloc.
· The share price goes to $30 by end of Q2.

Q3 ‘04
· Elan meets with FDA in July to determine Antegren Crohn’s regulatory pathway.
· Arbitration process with Pfizer/Pharmacia decision in July in Elan’s favour with Elan getting 100% control of the beta secretase inhibitor Alzheimer’s research.
· Elan’s second-generation Alzheimer vaccine, the AB immune conjugate, finalises its pre-clinical phase and an IND is filed with the FDA before July 17th Conf.
· Elan’s “explosive” presentation at the Alzheimer’s conference in Philadelphia in July where Elan will announce the strength of their Alzheimer’s research including presentation of Phase II results from abandoned AN-1792 study showing evidence of cognitive improvements.
· Share Price rockets above $35 in July.
· FDA gives Elan fast-track approval for Antegren (MS) in late July.
· Prialt approved in Europe by September.
· Share price goes above $40 by end of Q3.

Q4 ‘04
· Elan’s “R&D day” (mentioned at the SG Cowen Biotech Conference) probably will be early Q4 when Elan will present the full extent and strength of its pipeline to the investment community at large.
· Antegren Crohn’s filing in Europe.
· Release of Antegren MS 12-month Phase III data announced at ECTRIMs meeting in Vienna in October.
· Antegren for Crohn’s filing with the FDA in November.
· Prialt approved by FDA by November.
· Share price goes above $50 by December 2004.

Q1 ‘05
· Elan launches “blockbuster” Antegren.
· Elan launches Prialt (the first in its class in treating severe pain) January. This is a compound that is 1,000 times more potent than morphine. It also has a number of other advantages: there’s no development of tolerance, there’s no withdrawal concerns & no respiratory depression. Prialt will target three areas: cancer patients, AIDS patients and neuropathic pain.
· Elan files an IND for its (AD) gamma secretase inhibitor.
· Results from Phase II RA trial announced showing Antegren being as good as, if not better than, existing RA drugs with no side effects, i.e., more efficacious & safer. Two large Phase III RA trials initiated.
· Antegren touted as a $10+B drug with an “oral” possibility.
· Elan announces successful Alzheimer’s monoclonal antibody Phase I results and roll into a Phase II trial.
· Share price goes above $60 by the end of Q1 2005.

Unless, of course, Elan comes into play as soon as the SEC investigation is concluded (assuming before this summer) and the share price will hit $50 easy this summer as the big sharks circle.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=eln

[New-born baby]

Shorting ELN

Gentleman,

Have you noticed that IBD gives ELN a relative strength rating of 99? I understand, of course, that their rating is a trailing rating. If it fell rapidly, they would change the rating after the fact. On the other hand, after all the market uncertainty we have had since March, you have to say that a stock with a book value of $2.39 has done pretty well.

I enjoy the interaction, and I anxiously await the next posts of both the King and the Spike.