Tweet
King, we got some news last week and it didn't do squat for the stock. What's up? Are technicals over-riding fundamentals/expectations?
-
-
Look what happened to OFG. They had a fantastic earnings report, yet the stock just went down tubes in a matter of days.Originally posted by carribean_mike
I'm betting that all of this madness will end before too long and these stocks will be hotter than Hugh hefners latest girlfriends.
Right now is bargain shopping time.
Comment
-
ELN vs. PHRM
If you'd like a picture about how ELN might jump if the FDA approves its new drugs, take a look at PHRM's chart for Thursday, 20 May 2004. When the news hit of FDA approval, PHRM jumped over $8 in one second. HUGE HOLE. And that on the info that its new drug for MDS would be worth only $51m per year. Hmmm. What did the King say that ELN's new drug would be worth? A measly $4B?
But right now I am shorting the stock. I just don't want to be caught in an $8 bounce upward when I am betting the thing downward.
Say, King, when is the next announcement coming out from ELN? I want to make sure I cover my short before they open their mouths.Comment
-
another nice day for ELAN ... closed at $23.18
fast track approval could come as soon as 38 days !! from today ... THAT IS NOT PRICED IN AT ALL... cross your fingers...
SPIKE IM HOPING YOUR CHART SHOWS THAT THIS IS THE START OF A NEW LEG UP ???Comment
-
King, you'll be relieved to see an ELAN intraday bullflag today, and channel has turned up. I thought it was a goner with that hourly SHS neckline break I posted earlier.Originally posted by kingofthehill
I have moved my stop to at even and will exit at nearest logical intraday support tomorrow, based on that channel turn up.
Comment
-
there was one huge buy today 443,000 shares @23.00
Elan and Biogen File for Approval
The Motley Fool Take
Biotechnology
By Charly Travers
May 26, 2004
As Jeff Hwang wrote in February, Elan (NYSE: ELN) and Biogen IDEC (Nasdaq: BIIB) were to file for approval of Antegren much earlier than expected. Yesterday, the companies announced that they had submitted a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the FDA for Antegren in the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). So the ball is now officially rolling. If Antegren is approved, Biogen IDEC and Elan will share the profits equally.
Well before Biogen merged with IDEC Pharmaceuticals, it was a leader in the multiple sclerosis field. Avonex was launched in 1996, and on its back Biogen became one of the few biotech companies to become a profitable business operation. Avonex is a true blockbuster with $1.2 billion in sales last year, but it's a mature product and the company needs a follow-up drug, such as Antegren, to drive growth into the future.
The Antegren BLA filing in MS comes about a year earlier than the initial time line for the drug's development. Biogen IDEC and Elan are conducting two phase III clinical trials. These trials are to assess the effects of Antegren after two years of treatment.
What's interesting is that Biogen IDEC and Elan are filing for approval after having just one year of treatment data in hand (though they are going to finish the trials). While the companies are not disclosing this data to the public, a reasonable assumption would be that Antegren must have shown a statistically significant benefit on the efficacy endpoints after one year of treatment. Perhaps the clinical benefit to patients is so clear that they believe approval will be granted without having two years of data.
Of course, this is just my speculation, but the way I'm thinking about this is that if the Antegren data in MS was marginal at this time, there would be no way management would be taking the risk of filing early before the trials were complete. The hit to the companies' reputations and the class-action suits they would surely be slapped with would make filing without absolutely compelling data incredibly unwise. That means that shareholders in both companies likely have legitimate reasons to celebrate.
The Fool's Biotechnology discussion board is always hopping with interesting conversation. Check it out, on us, for 30 days.
Fool contributor Charly Travers does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this article.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legal Information. ©1995-2004 The Motley Fool. All rights reserved.Comment
-
this was written buy Morgan Stanley research before the filing for MS
STOCK RATING OVERWEIGHT–V
Price (May 21, 2004) $21.57
Price Target $30
52-Week Range $24.75 - 4.05
Stock ratings are relative to the analyst's industry (or
industry team's) coverage universe.
GICS SECTOR HEALTH CARE
US Strategist Weight 15.3%
S&P 500 Weight 13.8%
• We are more bullish on Antegren for Crohn's following our trip to DDW 2004
We now believe the Crohn's opportunity is probably at least $500M to
$1B. Our bullishness hinges on the successful completion of one
additional Phase III confirmatory trial which is just starting. Hence,
we choose to wait for positive data before changing our numbers.
• We include our top 10 takeways from physician interviews at DDW
Most importantly, we believe the Crohn's market is on the verge of a
dramatic expansion driven by new biological products. Remicade is a
large product but because it was launched with only short-term data,
many patients were treated for the short term and developed
antibodies. Hence, we believe Remicade doesn't reflect the true
potential of this market.
• Our Elan investment thesis remains fourfold
(1) Antegren is more valuable than expectations, (2) successful
restructuring of balance sheet resulting in less financial risk, (3) legal
risks diminish without material harm to the company, and (4) new
management has the skill set to build an integrated pharma/biotech
company.
• We maintain our In-Line view of the Specialty Pharma industry
We believe that on a mkt-cap weighted basis, our coverage universe
will perform in line with the S&P 500. We believe 2004 will be a year
of investment with limited upside to earnings expectations and few
new products that will significantly outperform.Comment
-
hey spike what is your chart saying.. any diamonds in loose soil yet !Comment
-
Hey spike, On this recent chart of ELN, if my count is right I have it in a C wave corection, head and shoulder form,, you agree?Comment
-
5 wave a,b,c correction..Comment
good stop is below lod.
Comment