MY PICK IS ELN

[evilarya]

why is it down 3.7 percent today and 4.5 in after hours?

[IIC]

why is it down 3.7 percent today and 4.5 in after hours?

IMO...Investors expected a little more than a terminated study which will go nowhere...Have to read it a couple times...at first it sounds good...but...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040721/215727_1.html

[kingofthehill]

just a blip on the screen, everything is fine they want your shares just hold tight.

lots of great press today for Elan take a look

http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[evilarya]

Elan Pharmaceuticals might have expected to party like it's 1999 when it was a highflier. Lofty expectations for its multiple sclerosis drug Antegren, to be co-marketed with Biogen Idec, have caused shares to quadruple this year.

But the company, which sports an $8.4 billion market cap, got a 7% haircut today as investors expressed their disappointment in the Dublin, Ireland-based firm. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) had scheduled a press briefing on data it was presenting at a major Alzheimer's conference. Investors apparently expected information about a new anti-Alzheimer's antibody or a new version of an Alzheimer's vaccine that was pulled from clinical trials after it caused brain problems. Instead, they got new data about the old vaccine.

"I think people were assuming that the presentation would be about the new product," says Albert Rauch, an analyst at A.G. Edwards. Elan's original Alzheimer's vaccine, which aims to teach the body to destroy the plaques that appear in the brains of Alzheimer's patients, was much-hyped before side effects emerged and the company ran into a whole mess of problems. New data indicates the old vaccine did clear plaque--although whether the medicine actually stopped the deterioration of patients' minds is an open question.

Elan and partner Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) are working on two follow-ups to the original vaccine. One, in early stage human trials, involves injecting antibodies much like the ones the body created by the vaccine into patients. A second, not yet being tested in humans, is a new version of the original vaccine. Both are probably many years from the market. Data from the old trials don't mean that new problems couldn't emerge with these still untested treatments. "The proof of concept isn't there," says Rauch. "It didn't disprove it, but it didn't prove it either."

Elan Chief Executive G. Kelly Martin has been cleaning up the company's accounting mess, but he's certainly not done. ThinkEquity analyst Deborah Knobelman says a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation could end this summer. She and Rauch both point out that Elan is a lot more likely to benefit from Antegren sales than Biogen-Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), which may have to cannibalize sales of its existing MS treatment Avonex to sell Antegren. Still Rauch recently downgraded Elan to 'hold' from 'buy,' saying not much upside was left. His bank or its officers may own options or futures of Elan.

Any thoughts.

[kingofthehill]

the drug should be approved by early October to Late November
We really have a winner here, just sit on your shares and you will make some nice money$$..something i cant say about my other holdings!

I see the stock at $30.00 before October

..todays news...
Reuters
UPDATE - Elan's Antegren drug gets FDA nod for review
Monday July 26, 3:40 am ET


(Adds background)
DUBLIN, July 26 (Reuters) - Irish drug maker Elan Corp (Irish:ELN.I - News) said on Monday its application for approval of multiple sclerosis drug Antegren had been formally accepted for review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Antegren, which Elan has developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (NasdaqNM:BIIB - News), represents a new approach in the treatment of multiple sclerosis and is expected to eventually generate annual sales of more than $1 billion.

The U.S. regulator will now review the drug before deciding if it can go on sale. Antegren won priority status from the FDA last month, which means the medicine could be approved within six months rather than the standard 10 months review time.

The much-vaunted drug has given Elan a major boost after its stock collapsed by more than 90 percent in 2002 on fears about its liquidity.

Antegren is also being developed as a treatment for the bowel disorder Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

It is expected to hit the market by early 2005, some 18 months ahead of the original schedule.

Multiple sclerosis is a disease of the central nervous system which affects about 1 million people worldwide.

[carribean_mike]

Coast is clear for an ELN run - since I bailed today. Probably will regret it.

[New-born baby]

Bailing out of ELN

Dear Mike,

I have never regretted parachuting out of an airplane rapidly descending out of control to earth. Who knows if the pilot can right the ship? It doesn't look likely. Did you see the huge volume: 10 million shares! ELN normally does 1.7 million. That's a lot of rats jumping overboard! ELN may turn out to be an ESMC--from $25 to $8. Or an AA, from $39 to $28. Or an LWAY, from $26 to $9. All these stocks took their steep dive in a very few weeks. (AA dropped in only a few days). One thing is for sure: if ELN can turn it around, you can jump back in. And no doubt Spike will let you know that things look "bullish" again. Personally, I think you are going to rejoice that you didn't take a bigger beating by holding this stock.

I am sad tonight because my boss--a great guy-- just lost a few thousand on this stock because he wouldn't use trailing stops. He was up $4 per share; now it is a $2 loser. He also dropped a large chunk of change on ESMC and LWAY for the same reason. He let three dollar/share profits turn into $12+/share losers because he eschewed the trailing stop. The fact is: there is a time to dump a stock. And a trailing stop would have protected all the profits as well as the principle. I dumped this stock 2 months ago, and sold it short with Spike, and I don't regret it. I doubt very much that you will regret it now.

The best of investing to you, Mike, as well as all those on this board.

[kingofthehill]

Pfizer tried to kill the stock in the last 2 days, and a great short attck

I bought more options they are trading very well, sorry if you had to bail out ..buy and hold

[New-born baby]

Tell us about it

King,

Please explain the short attack by Pfizer for us. I really would like your insight, as well as any proof that you might offer. I am not doubting your word, but just want to know.

Thank you,

[kingofthehill]

Funds that were short Elan from the great run up needed to cover. They
saw last weeks ALZ conference as an opportunity as soon as Elan did not announce an ALZ drug in phase III that very day, so they attacked the stock. PFE seeing weakness in Elan piled on with therr press release . The shorts have covered they are either long Elan now or are moving to another stock. When shorting funds leave a stock alone the price can quickly move up. That's what im looking for here.

Biogen being up 6% on Antegren news proves it was just an attack on a recovering company.

Buy and hold the stock, don't use margin on Elan .

Elan reports Thursday, look for the fighting Irish to answer the bullshit tossed by Pfizer

[kingofthehill]

Biogen , Elans partner is talking ANtegren today in their quarterly cc ..ALL THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT IS ANTEGREN...

taken from the yahoo message board on ELN

KEY POINTS:

1. antegren will expand and capture lion share of MS market
2. BIIB expects MS market to expand to 6 billion $US
3. avonex growing 20% year over year; avonex expanding 33% in Europe. BIIB has 40% of MS market now [my comment: despite avonex being only the 2nd best interferon product; so PFE can misrepresent competitior's products all day long and the BIIB sales force win on the field selling a SUPERIOR PRODUCT: ANTEGREN]
4. sales force for MS: expanding sales force and focused to optimize sales force to optimize sales of Antegren. =>>>BIIB will use entire current sales force in field for Antegren sales plus it is doubling its MS sales force <===[this I think is a departure from prior strategy with a greater focus on ramping up antegren sales]plus it will use ELN's hospital sales force

Will use ELN's hospital sales force too. Entire company convinced of antegren blockbuster capacity and focused on the early launch. antegren’s accelerated launch galvanized all aspects of our organization
5. Will announce pricing in October jointly with Elan at a CC. To preserve competitive advantage, not announcing some aspects of strategy.
6. Manufacturing: NC, Oceanside and Denmark but also working on increased productivity.
7. Mentioned Countermarketing by some competitiors, so not
8. Antegren will be a therapy for all patients with MS. Once a month therapy with antegren will be more appealing to patients then once a month plus combination with a interferon<==[it seems BIIB is more and more recognizing antegren is the sole horse to ride]
9. Crohns: end of year submit crohns approval package, but in US the additional induction study will be necessary to support FDA approval in US.
10. PFE comments: BIIB:
when antegren gets out the major chatter will be around data. PFE may get share of the "waiting room" as its sales force wait to see the Doctor but the data will speak for itself in the neuorologist's office. BIIB says this market is sensitive to information and the data will speak for itself.
11. MS patients: antegren post will continue...in 2nd post.

[Websman]

ELN seems to be holding around $20...

I'm wondering if now is a good time to get in...

What's the latest King???

[kingofthehill]

2 things with Elan ,

1. BUY AND HOLD
2. dont use margin on ELN

on the FDA front everything looks great
a great brief to read is this pdf file from the July

http://www.tixx.com/elanccjuly.pdf

price targets

Bloxhams: $45 (07/13/2004: Recovery Becomes Expansion, not time frame given)

NCB: $31.5 within 9 to 12 months (6/28/04: up from 26)

Goodbody: $$31.20 within 12 months (Reiterated 8/3/04)

Deutsche Securities: $31 (6/28/04: up from 26)

Morgan Stanley: $30 (04/24/04 reiterated, original 3/23/04: 12-18 mo. target. MS dropped coverage 07/30/04 for “policy” reasons, ie probably IB activities for Elan.)

ThinkEquity: $30 (05/19/04, up from $2

Investec: $30 (Date: ?? “Elan was rated new ‘buy’ in new coverage by analyst Scott H. Fullman at Investec. The 12-month price target is $30 per ADR”.

Davy’s: $28.00 (7/8/2004. On 7/2/2004 Powershares posted an unofficial target of $30.)

ING: 24.85 (4/5/2004: initiates buy (from sell), “…sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons.” [Assumes 50% of upside case])

AGEdwards: $24.00 (6/28/04 downgraded from buy to hold. 02/19/04 from hold to buy with target of $18 (the day after the Antegren announcement. 01/08/04 upgraded from sell to hold. One thing you can say about AGE, their hindsight is better than 20/20.

Lehman: $20.00 (06/29/04 reiterates $20, last announcement was 03/24/04 when the stock closed at $19.29, $8.29 above their previous target of 11 and just $0.71 less than their new target.

Average: $29.59

[Karel]

2 things with Elan ,

1. BUY AND HOLD
2. dont use margin on ELN

on the FDA front everything looks great
a great brief to read is this pdf file from the July

[...]

Average: $29.59

Well, I wouldn't buy a used car from stock analysts, let alone an averaged used car

I like your point 2: nothing is certain here, and the current price reflects already a lot of expected earnings. Of course, a lot of people expect them, but a lot of people can be impressed by hot air too. I am Dutch; we still remember the tulip craze (well, not first hand).

There is an even safer play than 1: Buy and start taking money off the table when the stock starts to gain; and continue to take money of the table. And then don't buy the dips! Keep the $$$ amount invested constant, or sell out slowly, or let your position grow slowly; but continue to take money off the table. You don't want 30% of your INVESTING money in a stock like this. Not even 10%. 5%, or even less preferably. But who am I. It's your money.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

Down again today...

I think I'll stay out for now.

Maybe it'll run up soon.

Good luck