MY PICK IS ELN

[New-born baby]

ELN and my stomach pains

King,

Are you sure Antegren is a drug for helping MS patients? I mean, with this stock jumping all over the place, I think it is a drug to cause ulcers.

[spikefader]

Down again today...

I think I'll stay out for now.

Maybe it'll run up soon.

Good luck

King and readers, you'd be wise to consider this: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...g/ELNtoday.jpg

Perhaps a hedging Put or two if you must hold it long.

[kingofthehill]

Thanks Spike, yes its been a rough few weeks,

Goldman Sachs comments today on BIIB that should be of interest to all!

Yesterday, we met with management of ELN, BIIB's partner on Antegren. We
learned that (a) PDUFA date for Antegren is 11/25/04, (b) over 1,600 patients have
been treated with Antegren for about 2 yrs. (c) ELN/BIIB will meet with the FDA in
August to discuss potential filing of Antegren for Crohn's disease (CD). We continue
to expect FDA approval and launch of Antegren for multiple sclerosis (MS) in late
04/early 05. We estimate the potential for MS and CD to be $1B ($0.60/share) and
$0.5B, respectively. We maintain BIIB as Outperform on earnings acceleration from
potential launch of Antegren and data from 4 Phase III trials (combined potential of
$2B) in 04/05. BIIB shares are at 34X our '05 EPS or PEG of 1.7 vs average 29X
and 1.4 PEG for the group. We expect the shares to continue to trade at a premium.
The risks are slower sales, development failures, manufacturing, reimbursement &
generics. Our coverage view is Neutral.

[kingofthehill]

Almost everyone is now in agreement that there are 2.5 million people with MS world-wide – and that just 1.05 over a million of these in Europe and the U.S. are suitable candidates for current MS therapies, including Antegren.

Most analysts indicate that current penetration levels are at about 27%, although the following statistics from Merrill Lynch indicate current penetration levels closer to 35%.

These are their numbers – which I assume are completely accurate. It shouldn’t be too difficult to produce these statistics.

357,000 patients are on current therapies in Europe and the U.S.
Just over 100,000 patients have dropped out of current treatment regimes.
Only about 140,000 patients are well controlled on existing therapies.
There are about 35,000+ newly diagnosed patients each year.

Current MS therapies are earning revenue around $4.2 billion, as demonstrated by the figures below.

“Global sales of Copaxone grew 28 percent to $226 million in the quarter, including $150 million in the United States.”
“Sales of Rebif® were up 29.2% (23.1% in local currencies) to $257.1m “
“AVONEX sales up 21% to $347 million, “
“Sales of Betaseron, Schering's top product, dropped 2 percent to 770 million euros ($932 million) last year. “ (Consolidated quarterly figures aren’t available for Betaseron.)

Annualised MS sales = $904 million + $1,028.4 million, $1,388 million + $932 million = $4.2524 billion.

These figures were almost the same for the previous quarter – so it certainly isn’t a once off! I previously posted the numbers for the 4th qtr ’03, which also came very close to $4 billion when annualised. In fact, trailing 12-month figures come in at about $4 billion.

The market is worth $4.2 billion today. It was worth $4 billion over the last twelve months.

Even the recent report from UCB, which was definitely biased against Elan and Antegren, has Antegren getting 50% of this market in just three years.

“In point of fact, when asked specifically about Product X use they indicated that they would use it in 26% of their patients after one year, 39% after two years and 50% after three years.”

The UCB report also indicates a price of $25k for Antegren per year.

50% of the penetrated market is 250,000 today – or about $6.5 billion annual revenue for Antegren. You should then add at least 50% of 35,000 each year for new patients.

Did they really say 27% of the market in year 1 and 50% in 3 years? Whatever about the price, I believe that Antegren can do better patient wise.

And there's nothing here for the CD, RA, or other indications.

Keep your eye on the ball!

copied from Yahoo..

[kingofthehill]

ROLL CALL ...is there anybody still long..

Elan rally pushes ISEQ higher

August 11, 2004 19:24
Shares in Athlone-based company Elan rallied to close almost 20% higher this evening in Dublin. The company said it knew of no reason for the surge, but analysts said that a lot of money was being pumped into drug stocks in the last few days.

Elan investors also appear more than happy with the company's pipeline prospects as it waits for US approval for its multiple sclerosis drug Antegren. That approval is due by the end of the year and Elan is banking on sales of over $1 billion dollars a year once the drug hits the shelves.

The shares closed €2.50 higher at €15.90 this evening, pushing the ISEQ index 76 points higher to 5,261.


Elan said last month that it remains focused on bringing Antegren - with which it will treat multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease - to the market by next year. The drug is currently under review by the US Food and Drug Administration and a decision is expected from them by November.

It is expected to generate sales of over $1 billion a year for the company.

[kingofthehill]

By Danielle Kost
> Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Investments, the world's
> largest mutual fund company, increased stakes in Elan Corp. and
> Cisco Systems Inc. and cut those of Motorola Inc. and Texas
> Instruments Inc. during the second quarter.
> Boston-based Fidelity added 37.2 million American depositary
> receipts, each representing 1 share, of Elan, Ireland's biggest
> drugmaker, raising its position to 37.4 million shares from
> 200,000, according to a regulatory filing. The firm boosted its
> interest in Cisco, the world's top maker of computer-networking
> equipment, by 16 percent to 213.8 million shares.
>

[Michaelk005]

I remain long, I was in at $17, I expect $30 a share when drug hits shelves.

[MEA_1956]

I Hear you Now

I Must admit not a believer in the first but I'm a long until I Die.

The word Mountain is still in my thoughts every time I read your posts. Thanks Again. ===> MEA

[kingofthehill]

In today's issue of Barron's, columnist Alan Abelson speaks highly of Elan investor Larry Feinberg, but with respect to his holdings of Biogen-Idec and Boston Scientific. I sent the Barron's editors the following email:

Sirs:

Alan Abelson notes that Larry Feinberg, who runs Oracle Partners, has been “very hot on Biogen Idec and, as it turned out, right on target.” Barron’s, August 23, 2004.

I note that Mr. Feinberg’s most recent holdings statement, current as of June 30, 2004, shows Biogen Idec (BIIB) to be his third-largest position. His largest position is Elan Corporation, plc (ELN), BIIB’s 50/50 partner in the imminent MS blockbuster, Antegren. Together, these two companies, much of whose value can be attributed to Antegren, constitute an astounding 24% of Feinberg’s holdings, a level of concentration that suggests great confidence in Antegren’s pending approval (expected anytime from tomorrow through November) and projected peak annual sales in the $5 billion to $10 billion range.

Sincerely,
(LJD)


from Yahoo ELN board

[kingofthehill]

anyone left ??

[spikefader]

anyone left ??

I take it you mean is anyone still long? Perhaps you're one of the stubborn ones still on board ......

[cbenj]

anyone left?

Kingofthehill,

Yes, I am still holding my shares of ELN. I bought most of my shares on January 5th at $7.13 based on your post. Thank you for making me aware of this opportunity. I have also added shares at various pullbacks, although I didn't add any shares during the latest pullback. In hind sight, guess I should have. I also appreciate your updates on the ELN status.

Thanks,
Ben

[kingofthehill]

GREAT NEWS TODAY
I just received the Morgan Stanley report on Elan, 17 page analysis. Headline is " Still bullish on Antegren" subheadline is "Resuming coverage on our favorite stock" . Rating still overweight and target $30.

[kingofthehill]

you can read a copy of the Morgan Stanley report at

https://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[kingofthehill]

fast tracking of Antegren in Canada!!!!!!!!

For: Karisma Communications
Stock Symbol:
Exchange:
Contact: Melissa Cohen
Primary Phone: 416-663-1500 ext. 226

Date issued: September 7, 2004
Time in: 08:00 e


Attention: Assignment Editor, City Editor, Health/Medical Editor, News Editor


New Hope for Multiple Sclerosis Patients
Highly Anticipated MS Drug Given Priority Review by Health Canada


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto, Canada, September 7 /PR Direct/ - There's exciting news for the 50,000 Canadians living with MS. A highly anticipated new treatment is one step closer to being available to Canadian patients. Health Canada has granted a priority review to AntegrenTM (natalizumab), the first in a new class of MS medications.

"For the first time in MS, Health Canada has agreed to give priority review to a treatment based on one-year trial data," says Dr. Paul O'Connor, neurologist and Director of the St. Michael's Hospital MS Clinic in Toronto, ON. "The 2001 Phase II results were very promising and demonstrated the ability of Antegren to reduce MRI activity and the number of MS disease relapses. We look forward to the final results of the pivotal Phase III AFFIRM and SENTINEL studies which have led to this accelerated review in Canada."

There are several criteria, which must be met, in order for a product to be accorded priority review status by Health Canada. For example, the drug must:
• provide a statistically significant and clinically relevant improvement in efficacy or safety over existing therapies on the Canadian market, such that the overall benefit/ risk profile is improved;
• be intended for patients suffering from a serious, life-threatening or severely debilitating condition;
• be indicated to treat, prevent or diagnose a serious symptom or manifestation of the condition.

The Phase III Antegren Studies
The AFFIRM (natalizumab safety and efficacy in relapsing-remitting MS) trial is a two year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double-blind study of approximately 900 patients designed to determine whether natalizumab is effective in slowing the rate of disability in MS and reducing the rate of clinical relapses when used as monotherapy.

The second trial, known as SENTINEL (safety and efficacy of natalizumab in combination with AVONEX(R) (interferon beta-1a) in patients with relapsing-remitting MS), is a two year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double blind study of approximately 1,200 patients. The SENTINEL trial, which is one of the largest conducted in MS, is designed to determine whether the treatment of MS with natalizumab in combination with AVONEX is more effective than AVONEX treatment alone in slowing the rate of disability in MS and in reducing the rate of clinical relapses.

"There is definitely a need for new types of therapies in the battle against MS and patients' response to natalizumab has been very encouraging. The other noteworthy attribute of Antegren is that it is administered as a intravenous infusion just once a month compared to the daily or thrice-weekly regimens of most current injectable MS therapies," added Dr. William McIlroy, national medical advisor for the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada

About ANTEGREN
Antegren, a humanized monoclonal antibody, is the first alpha-4 integrin antagonist in the new SAM (selective adhesion molecule) inhibitor class of MS therapies. The drug was designed to selectively inhibit impaired immune cells from leaving the bloodstream and to prevent these cells from migrating into chronically inflamed tissue as occurs in a variety of inflammatory diseases. To date, approximately 2,800 patients have received natalizumab in clinical studies.

Canada has one of the highest rates of MS in the world and multiple sclerosis is the most common neurological condition affecting young adults in Canada. MS most often strikes young adults - women and men between 20 and 40 who are in their productive family and career years.

-30-

TM Antegren is a trademark of Elan Pharmaceuticals


- END PRESS RELEASE - 9/7/2004


COMPANY: Karisma Communications
PROVINCE/STATE:
INDUSTRY: HEALTH
RELEASE ID: 200409030003