MY PICK IS ELN

[spikefader]

lol ok. no rocket science. I got this system with a 20-day chart using parabolic stop and reverse trend indicator (PSAR) which is the red dots you see. Principle being buy stocks in bull trend (dots below price). Then you match that with Money Flow Index, which signals buy if it hits 70 and sell if it hits 30. It's actually a very nice system.

So in English, ELN had a buy signal today at the open when it was in a bullish PSAR and money flow hit 70.

[sekto]

im using stockscharts .com what do i set the money flow settings to? Thanks spike

[spikefader]

im using stockscharts .com what do i set the money flow settings to? Thanks spike

You can't set that chart up with stockcharts because it uses Chaikin Money Flow, which is distinct from QT's historical Money Flow Index (prophet.net charts)

You want to go over to http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp and set up 20-day 60 min interval with psar and money flow index indicators. OR just click this tiny link and you'll get it the chart for ELN. http://tinyurl.com/8dddk

(then for other symbols, just go up to your address line in your browser and change the ticker from ELN to whatever you want and the settings remain.

[kingofthehill]

so spike what does your chart say

[spikefader]

so spike what does your chart say

It says bias still long with a green light to buy today's S1/yesterday's pivot of 13.65. The 20-day or 3-months chart clearly shows an obvious SHS formation with current prices forming the R shoulder. Cautious short-term traders should really be taking profits at this level to wait until that resolves, and people looking to tighten stops from here should use say 13.55 which is under the 30 min tweezer.

My stop remains at even.

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

As someone who bought this at a gap support dip of $8.00,and sold for a measly 2% profit on fear,now I feel its too late to get back in.My 2k shares would be some nice money for someone in my income bracket.

Holding a winnner is my biggest weakness.BTW owned alot of PBT at 10.92 not long ago,sold way too soon.

cordially and happy New year to the crew,Tom

[Websman]

Greetings,

As someone who bought this at a gap support dip of $8.00,and sold for a measly 2% profit on fear,now I feel its too late to get back in.My 2k shares would be some nice money for someone in my income bracket.

Holding a winnner is my biggest weakness.BTW owned alot of PBT at 10.92 not long ago,sold way too soon.

cordially and happy New year to the crew,Tom

I have the same problem Tom. I bought VPHM at 6.60 and sold for 9.90. Now it's at $20.

I wanted to dump ELN quite a few times, but I felt too strongly in it to sell. So far it's paid off, but it's not a profit until I actually close my position.

We'll find some more winners. hang around. 2006 will be a great year for us!

[skiracer]

I have the same problem Tom. I bought VPHM at 6.60 and sold for 9.90. Now it's at $20.

I wanted to dump ELN quite a few times, but I felt too strongly in it to sell. So far it's paid off, but it's not a profit until I actually close my position.

We'll find some more winners. hang around. 2006 will be a great year for us!

What is the problem in taking your gains. These stocks peak and valley over an over again as they move up in price. The idea is to catch them as they present the right setups again whether long or short. Webs has a great low entry in ELN and at this time it is realistic to hold tight for the big run up that is coming. But on the other hand as the peaks and valleys present themselves those opportunities can be taken advantage of in a realist manner. I was real late to the party and my first entry in ELN was 1400 shares at $12.65. I exited at $14.25 for a 1.60 gain on that trade. The stock pulled back and presented another entry at the mid $12.50 to $12.75 range. I jumped in again at $12.75 and rode it to $13.85 for another 1.10 gain on 2000 shares. Now it is pulling back again and closed today at $13.76. Two trades an up $4400 in a very short period of time and the money is in my hand and ready to go again. Why would anyone think it is two late to make a play now or even later. The problem lies in your mentallity towards what you're looking for. Most people are afraid to let go once they have the gains and afraid to get back in because they think it is to late once they are out. They have become prisoners of the stock and the position instead of them running the trade. What is the difference in being in from $6 to $10/12 or from $15 to 17.50/18 or $23.25/25.65. The real difference is in knowing exactly what you want and pursueing that goal and being happy with it once you have it. Then doing it all over again. MM does it in a different timeframe but once the target is hit it's done an over with an if the stock goes up another $50 after his exit then that's life but he's happy with accompolishing his target because he knew what he wanted out of it to start with and is satisfied with doing that. The price of the stock doesn't matter. What matters is the correct timing, if the setup is ready, and you have all the parts of your plan in order. Then being happy with that which most people aren't ready to do or accept.
The market gave us a gift today early in the morning. Spike mentioned it extensively an I mentioned stalking it yesterday. PETS spiked down to under $14 this morning presenting an unusual opportunity for an entry. I bought at $14.20 and $14.45. It closed today at $14.88. It topped out at $15.75 a couple of days ago an I'm looking for it to get back to at least that level and more. It's reporting eps either tomorrow or Monday so a close watch on it would be in order.

[spikefader]

Greetings,
As someone who bought this at a gap support dip of $8.00,and sold for a measly 2% profit on fear,now I feel its too late to get back in.My 2k shares would be some nice money for someone in my income bracket.

Holding a winnner is my biggest weakness.BTW owned alot of PBT at 10.92 not long ago,sold way too soon.

cordially and happy New year to the crew,Tom

Hiya Tom.

You've prompted some thoughts that come to mind. Hope someone finds it helpful.

The best remedy for fear in trading is downsizing the allocation for the trade to the point of not caring about the financial aspect of it. I guarantee that you'll look at it differently; with less fear and more discipline. Get a discount broker like IB where commissions won't matter, trade ridiculously low share quantities, only for the best r/r plays you spot, be patient, be disciplined, and you'll be really able to leave fear at the door. Consider it an exercise in control and discipline. Set yourself the challenge to trade only setups with r/r of 10 or better, and be a stickler for perfection. If it doesn't act just perfectly, get out. Then repeat it over and over and over until you finally nail a perfect entry that moves fast for you, giving you the buffer to sit back, give it leash, forget the signals against you, with one rule in mind; stop to even, target your original r/r target you set. And in the meantime, while waiting for that target, exit ONLY when there is confirmed TA that screams bear. Sounds ridiculous, but honestly Tom, it will help you. You've identified the weakness yourself; fear. Take fear out of the equation and watch good discipline leap to the keyboard. Once you're on track and you're in the groove, THEN make them a bit larger in size, little by little, so you don't hardly notice it. The aim is to be in the groove trading size. And when you feel the fear creeping back in, drop the size again until it's gone.

As for targeting, personally, I think whether or not to hold a position in the face of short-term contra signals or patterns, and really look for an enormous move very much depends on the entry you get.

Those absolutely perfect entries that happen, with little or no immediate pain, but rather the entry was oh so easy and it moves fast in your favor...........now THEY are the ones to let run.

And for all the others; the ones that jump around, threaten your stop, not act right, THEY are the ones that need a shorter leash and it's proper to target or even exit conservatively.

Reastic targeting is pretty easy; spot the resistance, and target it. Upper channel on the weekly, gap way above, triangle or cup projection, 5th wave completion, whatever it is. Modify that target if there's reason to, and shorten it if there's reason to. And do it all without fear and regret. A controlled trade within the limits of realistic interpretation of both upside potential and downside risk managment is MUCH better than a trade filled with errors and misdirected or head and hand constricting fear.

See, when applied correctly, with the right bias, fear and hope can actually be constructive. It's putting the right spin on it that's the toughie for human beings. People fear at the wrong time, and hope at an even worse time. People fear losing profit, and hope losers will come back. What they should be doing is fearing the downside, and hoping for the upside. And the timed application of those emotions is critical. At time of entry fear of downside is crucial. When in red from entry, it gets even more important. But for some reason, fear is replaced by hope. Our silly heads and hearts go into denial and deceive us. And then when it's all good, and we're green, and we've got the great entry, fear replaces what should be hope. Fear of lost profits is what our brains fart out, instead of encouraging hope of success, and denial of little signals against us.

And it's ONLY by FORCING ourselves to direct that fear where we don't WANT to WHEN we don't want to do it, that we stand any chance of overcoming it. Wilfully saying NO, I'm not going to do that, I'm going to do this instead. Doing it over and over and over until finally, with the grace of a higher power and the faith that it really IS the right thing to do, that we can actually do it. It goes soooo much against the normal grain of human nature. But it can be done. Ain't easy, but it CAN be done. And if you can do it, then bing.....it's like a light going off in your head. Something just changes. Understanding is the reward; a little bit anyway. Understanding much more about ourselves, understanding of market participants and where fear and hope fit into support and resistance, a deeper understanding of the market and some of what drives it.

We should fear the DOWN side RISK from our entry, instead of being reckless or indifferent to it. We should do everything in our power to restrict the down side from our entry, NOT the upside from it. We should actively look for realistic and genuine troublesome reasons to exit soon after our entry, while it's still a budding seed, than to allow the seed to rapidly grow into a tree of complacency or hope to take root and lull us into a state of non-action and pathetic undisciplined frozeness.

I say let great entries and "green hope" for reasonable profit be the ones to actually take us to profitability ....and not poor entries, a bloodsoaked trade history, and a trading desk reeking of the "red hope" that poured from our skin for hours, days, weeks or months.

So yes, "green hope" is good, "red hope" is bad. "Red fear" is good, "green fear" is bad. Get it?! Cuz that sentence says a bunch. What we all WANT is to get the great entry, be saved from the anxiousness of "red fear" or worse, the hell of "red hope", granted the blessings of "green hope" and 'denial' of silly contra signal confustion, and happily get a stress-free ride to hugely profitable trades. That's what we WANT. What we GET more often than not is an ugly combination of the bad stuff, with faint glimmers of the good stuff. And it's only our impressive self discipline and clever exits that will save us from the bad stuff. That and good luck, special Vulcan powers, or the grace of God

See, if we can master the emotion, master the application of constructive fear and hope, and do all the rest; patient stalking of great r/r setups, applying the numbers, pressing the buttons at the right times, sitting idle when you feel like doing the wrong thing, admitting when you're wrong and taking our medicine, and accepting when you're right and waiting for the reward, and giving a great trade a great chance, and giving a bad trade no chance, and giving an uppercut when you deserve one.......do all THAT, and you're there. Do all THAT and those home runs WILL happen. It's just a matter of time, a matter of doing what doesn't come naturally, accepting those losses with gratitude, with a smile on your face, despite how the humans side of you is tempted to feel, a matter of quiet resolve and faith that it's only going to be truly over when the fat lady sings. And when she does your discipline and wisdom allows a healthy bottom line to buy that fat lady a drink when she's done.

Best to all.

[skiracer]

ELN needs some kind of newsbreak of any positive nature right now otherwise all those anxious holders in from the mid $12.50 to $13 range are going to be bailing and waiting for the next news to hit the wires and then there will be another rush to get in. Although there may be another good buying entry coming up perhaps. Looks like there could be a small intraday SHS situation setting up. Stalking mode right now.

[spikefader]

New preferred count. I think I bought the corrective 'a' and not the impulse 4.... I'm at risk of stopping out with a 'c' down.....considering action....

[spikefader]

After pondering the ELN chart I've decided to hold it long. I got a great entry and will give it what it deserves. Stop remains at even and looking for a 'c' that doesn't breach the 'b' or my stop. If/when this 'c' long gets bought there could be a very very nice move people, so fasten seat belts

[skiracer]

After pondering the ELN chart I've decided to hold it long. I got a great entry and will give it what it deserves. Stop remains at even and looking for a 'c' that doesn't breach the 'b' or my stop. If/when this 'c' long gets bought there could be a very very nice move people, so fasten seat belts

I thought earlier that we were going to get an intraday SHS pattern with a surge through the neckline but there just doesn't seem to be any interest in things today an it is just meandering around. I think we'll see it a bit lower before the end of the day today. There was that spike down to 13.43 earlier but at least that didn't hold and go farther.

[Websman]

I closed half of my position at 13.65. I'll use that half to play ELN with. It's looking like I'll be able to buy back in at a lower price.

Still stalking for an entry...

This is much more fun when you're playing with the houses money! hahaha!

[noshadyldy]

head and shoulders

Spike,
when you speak of the SHS (and you will ) oops just dated myself there,

do you refer to the one stating beginning of Dec, or the larger one beginning of November, where the SHS of Dec appear like bumps on the head?

If that is truly a larger SHS pattern starting in November, there could be quite the drop. Thoughts?
thanks.
m