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Today's action confirms the 'c' long on the daily is completed (see http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/9171/elndec290th.jpg).
Next opportunity to buy is the 5 min 'c' intraday long entry.
Watch it fly if it takes out that R shoulder on the 20-day SHS I referenced. The R shoulder high is 14.20. Breakout through that could be a very nice impulse
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I missed my chance to get back into ELN at a lower price, because I was at the hospital last night. My Neice broke her arm and had to have surgery to fix it. I may have missed that opportunity, but she's definetly more important than trading.
The good news is that I still hold enough shares to make this ride up lots of fun!Comment
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I missed it myself today. Was watching it on an off and left the office for a meeting around 2 pm when it was around $13.60 and didn't get back until 4 pm an it was at $13.93. There will be other opportunities, but today was a good one. LOD at $13.15. Would have been nice to enter anywhere above that on the reversal. I still think it is the momo guys pushing it. It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday. Is the market open on Monday?Originally posted by Websman
Spike had the neckline break on the SHS pinned down right on the money at around $13.67.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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“The Wall at $14”; “People who have waited for the new tax year to sell are now doing so”; “Why the buyers step back”; “Chart shows major dive coming”; “We seem to have a hard time breaching and staying above 14”
What wall? The so-called “wall at $14” is only created by the specialists to fool most of the people some of the time, IMHO. To most folks, while the trading range of $13 to $14 since 12/15 seems to be stagnant, the wall at $14 overhead looms larger and larger. But to the selected few Chartists, they know that the wall at $14 had long been breached and the next price objective is $17.
How DID the wall at $14 break?
Since 12/15 while the chart has the look and feel of a “consolidation” in progress, a breakout had already occurred in terms of, you guess it, VOLUME. A total net BUY volume of 10,000,000 plus shares has been recorded during this so-called “consolidation” phase. No, it ain’t no consolidation. It spells ACCUMULATION with 10 millions plus shares staring at your face. According to the time-tested hypothesis of “Volume precedes price precedes news”, the wall at $14 had already been broken to the upside with plenty to spare.
Where does $17 come from? (Pease display the ELN chart using stockcharts.com)
Just take a look at the consolidation pattern from 12/15 to today. It has the look and feel of a flag formation, bound by $13-$14. What does a breakout from the flag of $13-14 imply? Answer: $17 in January/February! This is my calculation according to the pole-flag-pole measured move:
Price Target = previous pole length + breakout price at flag
Since the previous pole length is $3 (from $10 to $13 during 12/5 to 12/10), and the breakout price is $14, then
Price Target = $3 + $14 = $17
Addition supports to vaporize the wall at $14 myth are:
1. On the last day of 2005, ELN formed a long white candle. As I stated many times in the past, “Whenever a long white candle is formed, higher highs will immediately follow.” This is uniqueness in ELN’s chart and has NEVER failed.
2. Also, this long white candle is a classic “Bullish Engulfing” pattern. According to Candlestick Charting, when a long white candle completely engulfs (or contains within the open and close prices) the prior candle, it has bullish implications and immediate higher highs will follow.
3. During the so-called consolidation of $13-$14, major brokers and media such as Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Forbes issued “SELL” recommendations repeatedly. Yet, according to volume analysis, the NET buy volume during the consolidating period was a whopping 10 million plus shares. This strongly suggests someone bought heavily while they badmouthed ELN.
What wall? There ain’t no wall.
$17 is a slam dunk, my friends.
Ask Michael. He knows.
Happy New Year to All.Comment
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ELN was a Cooper 1-2-3-4 breakout today coming through Friday's high of 14.04.Comment
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a MUST READ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Comment
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Stock Of The Week
Loving Elan's Latest Comeback
John Dobosz, 01.04.06, 9:00 AM ET
Ken Kam, co-founder and chief executive officer of the amateur investor tracking and analysis service Marketocracy, recommends buying the American depositary receipts for shares of Irish biotechnology and drug delivery company Elan.
There are two ways to look at the performance of Elan’s ADRs in 2005: They were down 48.9% over the entire 12-month period, but they gained better than 365% off of their March 31 low of $3.00 per share. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) closed Tuesday at $14.01.
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Elan lost nearly 90% of its value early in 2005 when it pulled multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri off of the market in February after the deaths of two patients who had taken Tysabri in conjunction with another drug from Elan’s partner, Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), and developed the rare but sometimes fatal brain disease, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).
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Even after Elan has more than quadrupled in value in the past nine months, Ken Kam believes it’s still a good buy since, he says, Tysabri is coming back. On Nov. 17, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted Tysabri "priority review" status, which means that a decision on the drug’s return will be rendered within six months instead of the usual ten months.
Kam, who has a background as an entrepreneur and manager in the medical products industry, says two factors that should help Tysabri are that no patients taking just Tysabri came down with PML, and that existing drugs to fight multiple sclerosis don’t work for 25% of MS patients. For those 100,000 or so patients in the U.S., Kam says Tysabri can greatly improve their quality of life.
These facts, according to Kam, mean that there is no good reason to withhold Tysabri from this group of patients. He says the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will use this as their justification for returning Tysabri to the market as a monotherapy with a big "black box" warning about the risk of PML on the label.
“Wall Street is beginning to agree that Tysabri will return, but Merril Lynch and Citibank both recently reiterated their sell recommendations, both citing their belief that Tysabri will be hard to sell to physicians and MS patients until the risks of PML are better understood,” says Kam, who views the pessimism as a buying opportunity, especially in light of heavy “tax-motivated” selling toward the end of last month by people who held it early in 2005 and have “huge losses.”
“Lets look at Tysabri from the perspective of MS patients,” says Kam. “For the 100,000 that are not on any MS medication right now, the choice boils down to this: Tysabri can cut your risk of relapse by 50% without making you feel as if you always have the flu. There is a 0.1% risk of contracting PML if you use Tysabri in combination with other immunosuppressive drugs, but so far, no cases of PML have turned up in patients who took Tysabri alone. To put this risk in perspective, a recent study showed that the mortality risk for aspirin is 0.2%. So an MS patient who is comfortable with the risks of taking aspirin, ought to be comfortable with the risk of taking Tysabri.
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“Wall Street expects that Tysabri sales to these patients will be a slow ramp, but, if only 25,000 of them start to use Tysabri, they would generate over $600 million a year of sales, 50% of which would go to Elan,” says Kam, who also sees potential for treating the other 300,000 MS patients in the U.S. with Tysabri.
“One of the common side effects of competing drugs is constant flu-like symptoms. If you caught the flu this winter, you know how miserable it can be. Imagine how it would affect your life if you had the flu all the time. That is what life is like for many of these 300,000 MS patients. An important fact I noted from the clinical trial data and interviews with MS patients is that Tysabri does not seem to give MS patients these same flu-like symptoms.
“For this reason, many of the other 300,000 MS patients who endure these flu-like symptoms may switch to Tysabri, even if it means they have to stop taking their current drugs. If 10% of these patients switch to Tysabri, it would mean an additional 30,000 MS patients that Wall Street is not counting on. So, the potential market for Tysabri may be more than twice as big as Wall Street is expecting,” says Kam, who adds that he is beginning to hear of MS patients on existing therapies who have stopped dosage to clear their bodies in time for Tysabri’s likely release date in the early spring.
“The FDA granted Tysabri a priority review, so a decision is due by March 26, 2006,” says Kam. “We'll see soon enough whether Wall Street is right. If I'm right, Wall Street is in for a big upside surprise.”Comment
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Introduction + two other neurobiotech stocks
Hi everyone,
Just joined the blog and find it an absolutely great read! I am very new to the stock market so apologies for any stupidities you will find in my posts. I hope to start my lessons from the pros on this blog!
I like ELN very much and just recently took a position which is why I am posting my unrelated 1 cent here. Apologies if this is out of place but I thought the neuro-disease connection would be fitting.
Just wanted to trigger some discussion around a other stocks with neuro-biotech focus: Memory Pharmaceuticals (MEMY) and NeoPharm (NEOL).
MEMY has a very interesting pipeline of innovative drugs with huge potential. They only completed phase I for the lead drug (only safety) so still a lot of unknowns around whether the drug works. Theoretically it should. Management team seems to be very strong with a lot of neuro-pharm experience. The big magnet for me was the insider trading which showed millions of shares purchased by insiders in 09/05. Am I reading too much into this fact?
NEOL has one very exciting drug for the nastiest kind of brain tumor which kills 90% of people. They are now recruiting for their Phase III study and phase II was very promising (twice as many people survived as with the active comparator - Gliadel). Stock recently jumped on the good news from phase II and my sense they might soon be acquired.
Any thoughts?
Dr JComment
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Trade only what you see and not what you think whether you're a traditional fundamental based strategy or technically orientated trader.Originally posted by doctor_jTHE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Have a plan and trade it. No where you’ll get out before ya get in.Comment
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Looks as if I got out of this one prematurely. It came within .2 of my stop. Heck I could have left it open went on vacation and still been in it with a little profit. Oh well we live with the decisions we make.Comment
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I think you're going to have a few more opportunities to get back in an out yet. I've been in an out twice over the last 3 weeks and missed the 3rd entry on the SHS move that Spike called out last Friday. I wasn't impressed with it yesterday or today being that it didn't have the strength to hold the move either day. I think we see it go under $14 again. I would love to see $13.75 for an entry. If you look at the daily you'll see a small ascending triangle forming so it could go off but I'm thinking down first. My own feelings are that the hedge fund and momo guys are playing with it knowing that everyone now thinks there is a strong possibility that the drug will ge re-instated soon and everyone wants to be in the stock when an if that happens. This is providing them a great opportunity to force the issue, get the retail guys back in and sell off into strength. Yesterday and today were prime examples of that type of play.Originally posted by RunnerTHE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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