MY PICK IS ELN

**spikefader** · 03-08-2006, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by skiracer

Webs may have suffered from premature exitation on this one. After holding from so long to have exited right at the wire. But who knows.

hehe well I know he sufferes from premature vanity jeje Actually after all the confidence in ELN he has expressed lately I was shocked when I saw he closed it. But who knows how the mind of a Vulcan works...one can only guess and wonder.

**Lyehopper** · 03-08-2006, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

.......so can the VTP predict the bias of this surely volatile opener?

Sure.....................

**spikefader** · 03-08-2006, 05:00 PM

Lye, you got a quote for ELN dude? I'm seeing a pop myself......15.80?!

**spikefader** · 03-08-2006, 05:09 PM

Stalking a short myself......... hehe

**skiracer** · 03-08-2006, 05:10 PM

I saw $15.70.

**Websman** · 03-08-2006, 05:12 PM

The VTP saw this move up. I only sold because of the fact that I'm very busy right now and had to go to cash. I'm working on a real estate deal which is taking all my time.

**spikefader** · 03-08-2006, 05:28 PM

FYI: Shorted 15.56 here. I'll give it a couple % risk to target a gap fill or sumfin.

**Websman** · 03-08-2006, 05:33 PM

It's amazing, but the VTP showed ELN climbing to $15.91, before it pulled back. It actually climbed to $15.92. I was only a penny off. This system is getting better every day.

**mystiky** · 03-08-2006, 06:49 PM

So, where is ELN heading to?

Calling all chartists....

Does anyone think that ELN might close above $17.50 by next Friday (March 17), which is options expiration?

Me thinks that it will be very hard to get above that $17 resistance. I am thinking of playing with some $17.50 puts.

Comments, thoughts?

**spikefader** · 03-08-2006, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

FYI: Shorted 15.56 here. I'll give it a couple % risk to target a gap fill or sumfin.

And it takes my 2% and I retreat to stalkin. So who is long this puppy tonight?

**New-born baby** · 03-08-2006, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by mystiky

Calling all chartists....

Does anyone think that ELN might close above $17.50 by next Friday (March 17), which is options expiration?

Me thinks that it will be very hard to get above that $17 resistance. I am thinking of playing with some $17.50 puts.

Comments, thoughts?

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

**mystiky** · 03-08-2006, 07:45 PM

I like your idea of some "naked" $17.50 calls. I think that if I can get them at .45 or even .50 cents on a gapup tommorow, I might go for some there.
The premium there looks better than the puts.

However, if I see any of the analysts start giving ELN targets of like $20+, then I will stay away from the $17.50's and perhaps try to sell some $20 calls, which I really doubt ELN will touch in the next 6 trading days. Either way, I expect a gap-up tommorow.

And yes, I do realize what a naked call is, and how risky it can be!

Thanks for the input!

Originally posted by New-born baby

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

**skiracer** · 03-08-2006, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by New-born baby

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

Strictly conjecture guys. No one knows what this stock will bring to the table tomorrow but one thing I can assure you of is that alot of it is momo money which will be heading for the exits into any strength it shows from the basic retail guys plowing their money into it. Patience and playing the waiting game is the only move right now. 20 million shares in a very short period of time this afternoon the minute they opened it back up. After this afternoon it's gambling for the next few days. Better to wait to see which way the wind is going to blow. Buying the puts now while they are down and cheap might be the most reasonable thing to do. But remember they are not the easiest instrument to unload when you're trying to get out of them an everyone else who had the same idea is trying to do the same thing.
I thought Spike's play made sense with a close to even stop the most you could lose would be about .31 points at 2% and get to take a shot at the momo guys getting out in the morning.

**Tormentos** · 03-09-2006, 12:24 AM

I'm still long (entry at 14.10), and will be holding out for the next couple days. I made most of my money from the runup between $6 and $16. I now have a much smaller position so I am going to hold and see how things pan out.

**spikefader** · 03-09-2006, 12:37 AM

ELN is in an awkward place right now for me. I'm neutral on it.

Channel short on the daily today, and that's quite a gap there, and not on impressive volume. Weekly money flow is red and price stalled near price resistance....I'm going to need to see more out of it before I put the bull suit back on myself.

But having said that, it is a boomer on weekly chart, and I don't see channel resistance until 20.00 now... so if it can get over that resistance on volume days then I'd have to reconsider.

King. Are you a happy chappy? Full report please! hehe