MELI ==> The Hurricane Earl Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    MELI ==> The Hurricane Earl Winner

    Back in the early 80’s when I used to hang out in NYC with my friend Spanky, we always spent long nights at the freshest clubs checking out new hip hop talent before anyone even knew what Hip Hop was. Melvin Glover was the first rapper ever to call himself "MC".(Master of Ceremony) Other Furious Five members included his brother Kid Creole (Nathaniel Glover), Scorpio (Eddie Morris), Rahiem (Guy Todd Williams) & Cowboy Keith Wiggins. While a member of the group, Cowboy created the term "Hip Hop" while teasing a friend who had just joined the US Army, by scat singing the words "hip/hop/hip/hop" in a way that mimicked the rhythmic cadence of marching soldiers. He was recently quoted, "I've never been shot, I've never been arrested, and I've been doing Hip Hop all my life. I can't change things all by myself. We need everybody's help, so let's do it and get this thing done."



    So as far as I am concerned, every Hip Hop artist since then pales in comparison to the original MC.

    Today I bought MELI, MercadoLibre at 74.44. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 86.54. Here’s why I like MELI:

    You don’t have to go much further than looking at the chart. OH MY GOD!



    I mean…are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME???? This stock is a rocket to the moon and all it wants to do is go up up UP!

    Here’s the deal. Remember about 15 years ago when the founder of Ebay was on the Today Show and was showing Matt Lauer how the auction site worked by listing Beanie Babies or what not? Everyone out in TV land was watching and thinking, hey that’s pretty cool. I wonder if people will use it? I guess you got your answer and I bet you wished you bought stock in Ebay back then.

    Well, are you ready for a do over? MercadoLibre is the South American Ebay. The beauty of it is that South Americans are just getting started using retail ecommerce and MercadoLibre has only just begun getting folks familiar with how it works. That’s right, you can imagine you’re watching the Today Show once again…but this time it’s in Spanish! You’re getting another chance! It’s like in Back to the Future when Biff found the Almanac of Sports results.

    MercadoLibre is far and away the leader in e-tail operations in Central and South America. To make things better, the economy down there is starting to recover. As quality of life improves and Internet use catches on in this developing zone, MercadoLibre will be the boat that rises with the tide.

    MELI hosts online commerce and payment platforms just like Ebay does. It is a market leader in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela, based on unique visitors and page views, and also has online trading platforms in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Panama.
    MercadoLibre ($198.1 million in trailing 12-month sales) is performing and performing. In the most recent quarter, it upped sales by 28.4% and earnings per share by 73%, and it has a 21.4% profit margin, 95 relative strength, 0.12% long-term debt/equity ratio, and 0.31 P/E/G ratio.
    When we use the term emerging markets, we are basically talking about growth opportunity. Online marketplaces should work really well here because there aren’t a lot of hypermarts like Walmart and Target and, unlike North America, a lot of South Americans aren’t concentrated around urban development. The convenience of etailing will be a godsend to hundreds of millions of people (who don’t even have computers yet). So the punchline is there are billions of dollars of revenue streams that remain untapped at this time.

    It’s not prospects alone are driving up the stock price. MELI has put up several straight quarters of double-digit sales and earnings growth. There is absolutely NO REASON why this trend won’t continue. Competition? Forget it. What happened when the Johnny come latelies challenged EBAY? Ba ha ha ha ha! MELI has everything EBAY has – and more – it has the promise of future growth. (In fact, EBAY owns about 20% of MELI).

    The CEO is only 38 years old and he founded the company in 1999 with his brother Nicolas, who is 40 and also on the board. I think this guy is a Stanford grad (AAAAAAAH TREE) and saw an opportunity to make some coin and headed South. And boy are they making coin.

    MercadoLibre reported consolidated net revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2010 of $52.5 million, representing 28.4% year-over-year growth in U.S. dollars and 38.5% year-over-year growth in local currencies. In local currencies, Marketplace revenue grew 37.3% year-over-year while Payments revenue grew 42.5% year-over-year. In U.S. dollars, Marketplace revenue grew 19.9% to $37.2 million in the second quarter of 2010 from $31.0 million in the second quarter of 2009. In U.S. dollars, Payments revenue grew 54.9% to $15.3 million from $9.9 million in the prior year period.

    Items sold on MercadoLibre grew 33.7% to 9.2 million while total Payments transactions going through MercadoPago grew 91.2% to 1.3 million when compared to the second quarter of 2009. In local currencies, gross merchandise volume and total payments volume grew 35.4% and 73.8% year-over-year, respectively. In U.S. dollars, gross merchandise volume for the quarter grew 22.4% year-over-year to $798.1 million, while total payment volume grew 85.7% year-over-year to $147.8 million.

    Gross profit grew 27.2% to $41.1 million from $32.3 million in the prior year quarter. The second quarter 2010 gross profit margin was 78.3% compared to 79.0% for the second quarter of 2009. The slight decrease in gross profit margin was the result of higher growth in our lower margin Payments business, which grew to 29.2% of net revenues in the second quarter of 2010 from 24.2% in the prior year period.

    Income from operations grew 51.6% to $18.8 million in the second quarter of 2010 compared to $12.4 million in the second quarter of 2009. Operating income margin for the second quarter of 2010 was 35.8%, representing an increase from 30.3% for the prior year period.

    Net income for the three-month period ended June 30, 2010 was $11.7 million, representing 74.8% growth in U.S. dollars and 94.7% growth in local currencies. Net income margin was 22.2% for the second quarter of 2010, compared to 16.3% for the same period last year. Earnings per share for the second quarter of 2010 were $0.26 compared to $0.15 for the prior year quarter.

    ANAL-ysts expect MercadoLibre's earnings to grow 53% this year and 34% in 2011. Come on boys, how can you miss out on this one? $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects that 2010 revenues will come in at $247 million with EPS of $1.21/share. Take today’s justified P/E of 77 and multiply it into the share estimate of $1.21 and you get a share price of $93.17 which is well past my selling target.

    What does the whiz kid think of all this?

    Marcos Galperin, President and Chief Executive Officer of MercadoLibre, Inc., commented, "We are pleased with our strong second quarter results, as we continued to build on the positive momentum that we have gained in the business over the recent time frame. During the quarter, we continued to focus on our product and usability initiatives, which are targeted at enhancing overall user experience and driving our top-line growth. Additionally, we continue to experience strong secular growth trends within the industry and believe that these trends will provide ample opportunity for MercadoLibre to maintain a strong growth trajectory for the foreseeable future."

    Well, I wrote this up in the airport as I once again make my annual trip to Vegas. Win or lose in Sin City, I am sure I will come back to profits from MELI. Can’t lose! CAN’T LOSE!! DRINKING MACHINE!!

    Let me know what you think of this write up.

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 10-11-2010, 04:26 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • steelman
    Senior Member
    • Jun 2008
    • 648

    #2
    Nice Find $$$Mr.Market$$$!!! I am in. Investools has a projected price of $1005, so it just fits the 50% margin of safety at a current price of $71.76

    Picked up some $85 Dec. Calls. Good luck in Vegas!
    Best,
    Steel
    It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

    Comment

    • wooish
      Senior Member
      • Dec 2008
      • 499

      #3
      Originally posted by steelman View Post
      Nice Find $$$Mr.Market$$$!!! I am in. Investools has a projected price of $1005, so it just fits the 50% margin of safety at a current price of $71.76

      Picked up some $85 Dec. Calls. Good luck in Vegas!
      A projected price of 1005? Are you serious? I'm in for 1005

      Comment

      • steelman
        Senior Member
        • Jun 2008
        • 648

        #4
        Originally posted by wooish View Post
        A projected price of 1005? Are you serious? I'm in for 1005
        Investools says, at some point in time the current stock price and the projected stock price will cross. They just don't tell you when. It could take months, or years. Anyway, it's a fairly safe play with the projected price, earnings and financials and a great chart. It may pull back a little but it is trading above it's 30 day MA.
        Best,
        Steel
        It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

        Comment

        • jiesen
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2003
          • 5319

          #5
          nice pick! I'm in at 72.

          picked up some MELI yesterday at 72.5. See you at 85+!

          Awesome writeup, $$MM!!! EBay's ex-CEO was at my company a while back telling us all how she's gonna take over for when the governator leaves us. She's got billions to blow running for office now thanks to EBay and the ridiculous profits that business model generates. If EBay can do it, why not MELI? This one's headed right for $1000, GOOG-style, imo... 'course I'm just as happy to skim the standard 15% out of it, being the sure thing and all. (Just look at that chart, holy cow!)

          Comment

          • tiedyed1
            Senior Member
            • Jun 2009
            • 599

            #6
            support at 50 day MA

            Not sure of specifically why the large selloff the past few days (and especially today), but as MELI found support at its 50 day MA I am now in at 65.88. Go MELI!

            Comment

            • wooish
              Senior Member
              • Dec 2008
              • 499

              #7
              65.88 is a good entry, looking at today's volume it could go down more. Next stop is $62

              Comment

              • mrmarket
                Administrator
                • Sep 2003
                • 5971

                #8
                Looks like profit taking to me...hope I'm right!
                =============================

                I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                Comment

                • tiedyed1
                  Senior Member
                  • Jun 2009
                  • 599

                  #9
                  Yesterday's volume was a bit unnerving but I felt it found a base at the 50MA and if that next lower level of around 62 comes up I will accumulate there too.
                  No news until earnings in November will cause the market will dictate a lot of what the stock price does between now and then. But sooner more than later this company will reflect its growth and the stock price will run way past Mr. Market's target.

                  Comment

                  • smaskell
                    Member
                    • Oct 2010
                    • 46

                    #10
                    Mr Market,
                    Just out of curiosity, why did you pick this stock as one of your 15% upside picks if it didn't even make your top 5 list for this month?
                    thx
                    Scott

                    Comment

                    • wooish
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2008
                      • 499

                      #11
                      Support has broke down, if it breaches 100MA, this baby will retest 200MA at $54.

                      Comment

                      • Karel
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 2199

                        #12
                        Originally posted by smaskell View Post
                        Mr Market,
                        Just out of curiosity, why did you pick this stock as one of your 15% upside picks if it didn't even make your top 5 list for this month?
                        thx
                        Scott
                        Hi Scott,

                        MELI was in the Hurricane Earl data dump and in the Hurricane Earl Top 5.

                        Regards,

                        Karel
                        My Investopedia portfolio
                        (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

                        Comment

                        • smaskell
                          Member
                          • Oct 2010
                          • 46

                          #13
                          MELIfluent stock picking...

                          Originally posted by Karel View Post
                          Hi Scott,

                          MELI was in the Hurricane Earl data dump and in the Hurricane Earl Top 5.

                          Regards,

                          Karel
                          Sorry. Latecomer ignorance...

                          That does trigger another question though. How long do you consider the evaluation data valid? mrmarket's explanation indicated he did this evaluation monthly. meli was in the 'earl' evaluation pool (09-02) but he didn't pull the trigger until after the 'bourne' eval pool was posted (09-22) and meli was not among them. Wouldn't that indicate it was no longer a good 'mrmarket' pick? It did gain approximately 7-10% in September at its peak. Or was meli kept out of the pool simply because it was a previous pick?

                          Just trying to understand the thought process here.

                          thx
                          Scott

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by smaskell View Post
                            Sorry. Latecomer ignorance...

                            That does trigger another question though. How long do you consider the evaluation data valid? mrmarket's explanation indicated he did this evaluation monthly. meli was in the 'earl' evaluation pool (09-02) but he didn't pull the trigger until after the 'bourne' eval pool was posted (09-22) and meli was not among them. Wouldn't that indicate it was no longer a good 'mrmarket' pick? It did gain approximately 7-10% in September at its peak. Or was meli kept out of the pool simply because it was a previous pick?

                            Just trying to understand the thought process here.

                            thx
                            Scott
                            I'm pretty certain he did pull the trigger before the bourne data pool was posted. I believe it was September 16 according to his first post in this thread.

                            Comment

                            • mrmarket
                              Administrator
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5971

                              #15
                              That was a pretty strong trading day, Friday...up all through the day to the close. Hopefully momentum continues into Monday.
                              =============================

                              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                              Comment

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